Met Office Hadley                   7.4c.         Anomaly          3.1c. Provisional to 4th.

MetCheck                              7.72c.        Anomaly         3.52c.

Netweather                            8.09c.        Anomaly         3.09c.

It would be good to keep a running tally of where we stand against the winter CET record. Does anyone have the numbers?

The record CET mean for winter was set in 1868/9 at 6.74C if you calculate from the daily data

Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 have so far given an average on the same basis of 7.56C

So the whole of Feb has to be above 4.99C to beat the record. We have got 4 days' data (provisional) of 7.4C for Feb so now the rest of Feb has to be above 4.60C to claim the record

 

The record CET mean for winter was set in 1868/9 at 6.74C if you calculate from the daily data

Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 have so far given an average on the same basis of 7.56C

So the whole of Feb has to be above 4.99C to beat the record. We have got 4 days' data (provisional) of 7.4C for Feb so now the rest of Feb has to be above 4.60C to claim the record

 

Let's keep this one running. It's a very long lived record (the longest seasonal one left I think) so breaking it would be quite an "achievement".

The next 10 days looks like averaging roughly 5.2C so if that happens we'll be well on course by then.

It's a sign of how ridiculously warm this winter has been that I often find myself looking at stats and graphs reading what I think are absolute CET values only to find I'm looking at the anomaly figure!  

 

The record CET mean for winter was set in 1868/9 at 6.74C if you calculate from the daily data

Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 have so far given an average on the same basis of 7.56C

So the whole of Feb has to be above 4.99C to beat the record. We have got 4 days' data (provisional) of 7.4C for Feb so now the rest of Feb has to be above 4.60C to claim the record

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

6.77C winter 1869 is quoted.

How do they make the final figure? From individual daily data or a mean of 3 months? Even the daily data will never be perfect due to leap years- a March 1st or Feb 29 particularly anomalous day, such as 29th Feb 1960?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

6.77C winter 1869 is quoted.

How do they make the final figure? From individual daily data or a mean of 3 months? Even the daily data will never be perfect due to leap years- a March 1st or Feb 29 particularly anomalous day, such as 29th Feb 1960?

 

The 6.77 is the average of the 3 monthly figures (20.3 / 3) but as each of these monthly figures is rounded up or down to 1 decimal place from the daily data it is not as accurate as calculating one average across all 90 days of DJF combined (or 91 for leap years)

I don't think there is much we can do about every 4th winter lasting an extra day !

Here are the latest charts for February. A very mild start to the month. It looks like being somewhat cooler over the next two weeks but nevertheless every single day is currently predicted to be above average up to the 19th.

On the winter CET we are on track for the warmest winter on record. Current estimates are we will be 0.39C above 1868/69 by the 19th.

Good Morning Watchers,,    Slightly up today. 

Met  Office  Hadley                  7.8c.         Anomaly      3.5c.  Provisional to  5th.

Metcheck                                7.85c.       Anomaly      3.65c.

Netweather                             8.38c.       Anomaly       4.19c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather           8.0c.        Anomaly        3.5c.

Clevedon Weather                   9.2c.        Anomaly        3.9c.

Mount  Sorrel                          8.3c.        Anomaly        4.1c.

Peasedown St John                  8.0c.        Anomaly        4.3c.    

There is still no sign of a ssw event happening in the next 2 weeks but it still may happen in the final third of this month or even march. The last occasion was march 2013 so you could say we are about due for one. However we still look like sitting on the northern side of the jetstream at times in the next 10 days so temperatures will cool down in comparison to this first week of feb.

 

The 6.77 is the average of the 3 monthly figures (20.3 / 3) but as each of these monthly figures is rounded up or down to 1 decimal place from the daily data it is not as accurate as calculating one average across all 90 days of DJF combined (or 91 for leap years)

I don't think there is much we can do about every 4th winter lasting an extra day !

 

Yes thanks; using each day is better I agree, otherwise I suppose they ought to weight the mean (Dec mean X31 + Jan mean x31 + Feb mean x28)/90.

Does this mean that all or at least many of the CET seasonal figures are likely to be slightly different from the actual total daily mean, and that the ranked series could be slightly affected; or are those hundredths of degrees never really going to make a difference?

Met  Office  Hadley    7.8c.       Anomaly       3.3c.      Provisional to  6th.

Metcheck                  7.71c.     Anomaly       3.51c.

Netweather               8.45c.     Anomaly       4.25c.  

Peasedown St John    8.1c.      Anomaly        4.4c.

Annual      7.1c.  Difference     1.4c.   NOAA  Annual Report.. 

The latest run of the jet stream chart for Tuesday+ is a great one for cold lovers. The jet stream at last running completely to the south of the uk exposing it in a northerly grip. Winter may have a sting in its tail

The latest run of the jet stream chart for Tuesday+ is a great one for cold lovers. The jet stream at last running completely to the south of the uk exposing it in a northerly grip. Winter may have a sting in its tail

And with it a scuppering of a seasonal record, maybe.

 

And with it a scuppering of a seasonal record, maybe.

Looked at the cet average for the coming week and it may only be between 3.5-4 which would knock February down to 5.5-5.8 for the first half. This record may go right to the wire!

 Who Knows what will happen after the 16th.... Could go lower or the other way.. But not much above the average... 

Met Office Hadley               7.6c.    Anomaly     3.1c. Provisional  to 7th.

Metcheck                           7.57c.    Anomaly   3.37c.

Netweather                        8.19c.    Anomaly   4.0c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather      7.6c.      Anomaly   3.1c.

Clevedon Weather               9.0c.     Anomaly    3.7c.

Mount Sorrel                       8.0c.     Anomaly    3.8c.

Peasedown St John              7.8c.     Anomaly    4.1c.

Annual PSJ   7.0c. Difference 4.1c.   NOAA Annual report.        

  Met  Office  Hadley          7.5c.        Anomaly         3.0c.     Provisional to 8th.

  Metcheck                       7.30c.       Anomaly         3.10c.

Netweather                      8.08c.       Anomaly         3.89c.    

Met  Office   Hadley              7.1c.        Anomaly    2.7c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                             6.98c.      Anomaly    2.78c.

Netweather                          7.69c.      Anomaly    3.5c.

A point four drop in a day; a few frosts in the last 10 days and we could cross that 1869 line.

The latest forecast looks touch and go whether we will make the record. 4.5-5.5 looks likely as a finishing cet.