Met Office Hadley         6.8c.        Anomaly     2.5c.  Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                     6.60c.      Anomaly     2.40c.

Netweather                  7.4c.        Anomaly      3.21c.                      

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Today was the first below average day of the month. We now have a run of 8 consecutive days with temperatures at or slightly below average. So the CET will continue to fall steadily. From the 20th it looks like things will turn a little warmer again.

We are still on course for the warmest winter on record but it is getting closer. We do need that warm up in the final week of the month to stay ahead of 1868/9.

Thanks for the chart GB. Starting to look kind of similar to January's chart but reading right to left.

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Met Office Hadley             6.5c.       Anomaly       2.3c.   Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                         6.32c.      Anomaly      2.12c.

Netweather                      7.02c       Anomaly      2.83c.

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The record CET mean for winter was set in 1868/9 at 6.74C if you calculate from the daily data

Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 have so far given an average on the same basis of 7.56C

So the whole of Feb has to be above 4.99C to beat the record. We have got 4 days' data (provisional) of 7.4C for Feb so now the rest of Feb has to be above 4.60C to claim the record

 

Now after 11 days provisional data giving a monthly mean CET so far of 6.5C, the rest of the month has to be 4.08C or more to get an overall monthly figure of 5.0C and beat the 1868/9 record

My money is still on getting there

 

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Now after 11 days provisional data giving a monthly mean CET so far of 6.5C, the rest of the month has to be 4.08C or more to get an overall monthly figure of 5.0C and beat the 1868/9 record

My money is still on getting there

 

Yes, I reckon you're right; regardless of a few cold days, as long as that 'what we still need' mean keeps reducing, the probability increases (stating the obvious I know). Having said that, we're not yet half way through. If we needed 5 at the start and we've got 6 -ish by 14th/15th, below 4 is still a possibility.

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The last third of the month looks mild so unless this changes it will be broken. However the mild is over a week away which gives time for pattern changes and there is a low possibility this cold could last longer.

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I think it is highly likely the record will go.

D'you know what, though? It won't be a spectacular defeat and after that prodigal December we deserved something more emphatic, if only to compensate snow lovers like myself for the firework that went out. The current record relates to a year with sustained significant warmth. One exceptional month and two you won't find in one of those WHSmith books about weather through the years is overall dull.

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I think it is highly likely the record will go.

D'you know what, though? It won't be a spectacular defeat and after that prodigal December we deserved something more emphatic, if only to compensate snow lovers like myself for the firework that went out. The current record relates to a year with sustained significant warmth. One exceptional month and two you won't find in one of those WHSmith books about weather through the years is overall dull.

I completely agree, especially considering the time period when averages were lower. It was outstanding as a season in its consisency like 1962/63, 1947 whereas this winter might be remembered for its once in a millennium December!

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Spring 2011 is another example of a season like this.  It finished as the warmest spring on record largely off the back of the exceptional April which was on a par with Dec 2015 in anomaly terms. The March and May were both warmer than normal but not exceptionally so,  but the April anomaly was such that the record was secured.  

 

 

That's a great example! I think the summer of 1976 was similar to that with June being the exceptional one.

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That's a great example! I think the summer of 1976 was similar to that with June being the exceptional one.

The end of June was exceptional for the end of June; but the three months that summer were all consistently warm, with June actually being the coldest of the three as far as the CET record goes. July was the warmest month but not as hot as July 1983 or 2006. So actually 1976 doesn't match this pattern at all.

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That's true, I had June and July figures mixed up, quite the opposite. An amazing season!

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Met  Office  Hadley              6.3c.           Anomaly       2.1c.   Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                            6.05c.         Anomaly       1.85c.

Netweather                         6.74c.         Anomaly       2.55c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       6.9c.           Anomaly       2.2c.

Clevedon Weather               7.7c.           Anomaly       2.4c.

Mount Sorrel                       6.3c.           Anomaly       2.1c.

Peasedown St John              6.3c.           Anomaly       2.5c.

     

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Met  Office  Hadley              6.1c.         Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                            5.81c.        Anomaly       1.61c.

Netweather                         6.5c.          Anomaly       2.31c.

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Met Office Hadley                    5.9c.    Anomaly    2.0c.   Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                                 5.2c.    Anomaly    1.32c.

Netweather                              6.26c.   Anomaly     2.07c.  

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Met Office Hadley           5.7c.    Anomaly    1.8c.

Metcheck                       5.26c.  Anomaly     1.06c.

Netweather                    5.99c.  Anomaly     1.8c.

 

Peasedown St John        5.6c.     Anomaly     1.9c.

    

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From the 11th to the 16th, a very consistent 0.2C drop every day.A straight line on the graph! Some milder days ahead, though.

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I completely agree, especially considering the time period when averages were lower. It was outstanding as a season in its consisency like 1962/63, 1947 whereas this winter might be remembered for its once in a millennium December!

Actually winter 1947 is really only remembered for that period late January to mid March 1947. As for the first half of that winter, when they do talk about it, it is under the misperception that it was mild! 

It's very rare to get a season that is consistent across all months.

Not quite sure that the record will fall though. 

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I make it 4.53C from 16th to 29th inclusive required to snatch the record, based on 609.3 degree days in 1869 (6.77 X 90), and us needing a total of 617 (6.78 X 91 rounded; leap year) with 553.6 already achieved up to 15th Feb = 63.4C spread over the remaining 14 days (16th to 29th inclusive).  This is well down on the 4.99 needed earlier (re: Lanky's post).

It coud be up a notch after yesterday's frost- we'll wait and see.

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