Time for a new month. Last month of winter coming up. Will we see a below average month. Personally I think not.
Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Sunday evening (31st). Entries will be accepted until 23:59 on the 2nd.
February historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 4.2C
1981-2010: 4.4C
1996-2015: 4.9C
There have been very few cold Februaries since 1996. The only significantly below average years were 2010 (2.8C) and 2013 (3.2C) and neither of these were especially cold. Warmest Februaries recently were 2014 with 6.2C and 2011 with 6.4C.
Here is a chart of the February CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.
GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
Looking close to or slightly above average on the T2m figures in the south but slightly below average perhaps further north.
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/o/A3_plots-temp-FMA_v1.pdf
Contingency planners forecast suggests the probabilities slightly favour an above average February but the signal is not that strong.
Some very interesting comments made:-
- El Nino - strong event favours mid Atlantic ridge at this time of year (so winds coming more from the NW rather than W or SW)
- polar vortex weakening. Possible SSW anytime between early Feb and early March. Effects on UK uncertain
- MJO likely to be in a phase in early Feb which is conductive to negative NAO conditions
- QBO strongly positive still favouring a stronger polar vortex and hence positive NAO. QBO impact tends to diminish though in late winter
- Positive SST anomalies near the US and Canadian coast with negative anomaly in mid Atlantic suggests a northerly shift in the pressure pattern favouring a westerly (+ve NAO).
So many factors given conflicting signals means anything could happen!
Pattern matching (JFF)
If we look at years since 1950 when we had very mild Decembers and Januaries there are a number of matches. None saw a cold February - a couple were average (2012 and 1975). The others were all mild or very mild. So does not bode well for cold conditions in February. My gut feel is February will be another mild month overall but we could see one cold spell similar to what we had in January. This might or might not tie in with a SSW.
Here is a first look at the February CET.
Edited by moderator
23 March 2016 20:46:16
|
Reason: Not specified