Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Oct 2016 to Monday 31 Oct 2016:

Looking ahead in the forecast it looks as though we will keep a strong influence of high pressure, particularly to the northeast of the UK. However, there are increasing signs of low pressure edging towards southwest England introducing a brisk southeasterly wind to all. During this time we are likely to see bands of rain spreading in from the southwest, though there is uncertainty over how far north the rain will extend. Temperatures here are likely to be milder than we would normally expect for late October, but it will be often windy with the risk of gales. The most settled conditions will be in the far north, closest to the higher pressure, which will lead to slightly colder than average conditions with the overnight risk of frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Nov 2016 to Tuesday 15 Nov 2016:

As we head into the start of November the signal initially looks set to continue with a blocking high close to the northeast of the UK and lower pressure to the southwest. During this time we would expect the most frequent rain in the southwest of England which will often be associated with strong winds. The driest weather is likely to be in the far north, however here it may often be chilly. Towards the middle of November there are increasing signs that there will be more mobility to our weather patterns with areas of low pressure crossing from west to east bringing spells of rain to all. Though at this early stage there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing of this change to our weather pattern.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Not what we wanted, zonality train to start right on cue. Bugger 

 

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">http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Not what we wanted, zonality train to start right on cue. Bugger 

 

It might be an idea to have another read of the final sentence of the forecast before one jumps to any conclusions, btw.

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Not what we wanted, zonality train to start right on cue. Bugger 

 

It might be an idea to have another read of the final sentence of the forecast before one jumps to any conclusions, btw.

 

They seem pretty confident of a change to zonal just not sure when But at some point in November . It's not what we want we can only hope they're wrong.

 

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It might be an idea to have another read of the final sentence of the forecast before one jumps to any conclusions, btw.

 

They seem pretty confident of a change to zonal just not sure when But at some point in November . It's not what we want we can only hope they're wrong.

 

November 2009 also had a zonal period, not that I'm implying for one minute another 2009/10 winter is on the cards mind you. However just because things are expected to turn zonal doesn't equate to a full on onslaught for months on end, hopefully.  😜

 

 

They seem pretty confident of a change to zonal just not sure when But at some point in November . It's not what we want we can only hope they're wrong.

 

November 2009 also had a zonal period, not that I'm implying for one minute another 2009/10 winter is on the cards mind you. However just because things are expected to turn zonal doesn't equate to a full on onslaught for months on end, hopefully.  😜

Well let's hope so, I'd just started to think we might actually keep these amazing winter charts until actual winter.

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 1 Nov 2016:

High pressure looks set to remain to the northeast of the UK, continuing to bring east or south-easterly winds across the country. These winds will become strong at times, with the risk of gales in places. Bands of rain may spread into the south-west at the start of this period, with the chance that some of this slowly spreading further north by the end of October. Eastern parts may see scattered showers throughout, but generally the further north you go the greater chance of remaining dry and bright. Temperatures are likely to turn milder across the south at first, but this often offset by the stronger winds. Where it remains more settled though, temperatures will be colder with an increased likelihood of frost and fog forming overnight.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 16 Nov 2016:

Into the first week of November, similar weather conditions look set to continue with high pressure remaining to the northeast of the UK and lower pressure to the southwest. As a result, the most frequent spells of rain are likely across southern parts, accompanied by strong winds. Further north it will remain drier, however it will often be rather cold. Towards the middle of the month there are some signs that low pressure will start to arrive from the west bringing slightly less cold conditions with stronger winds and spells to rain across the whole country. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty at this stage and the more settled conditions may persist into the second half of November which will result in fairly cold conditions remaining across the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 1 Nov 2016:

High pressure looks set to remain to the northeast of the UK, continuing to bring east or south-easterly winds across the country. These winds will become strong at times, with the risk of gales in places. Bands of rain may spread into the south-west at the start of this period, with the chance that some of this slowly spreading further north by the end of October. Eastern parts may see scattered showers throughout, but generally the further north you go the greater chance of remaining dry and bright. Temperatures are likely to turn milder across the south at first, but this often offset by the stronger winds. Where it remains more settled though, temperatures will be colder with an increased likelihood of frost and fog forming overnight.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 16 Nov 2016:

Into the first week of November, similar weather conditions look set to continue with high pressure remaining to the northeast of the UK and lower pressure to the southwest. As a result, the most frequent spells of rain are likely across southern parts, accompanied by strong winds. Further north it will remain drier, however it will often be rather cold. Towards the middle of the month there are some signs that low pressure will start to arrive from the west bringing slightly less cold conditions with stronger winds and spells to rain across the whole country. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty at this stage and the more settled conditions may persist into the second half of November which will result in fairly cold conditions remaining across the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Subtle words change already for The better, the zonal train more likely to be delayed.  

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It must be Autumn then....

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Oct 2016 to Wednesday 2 Nov 2016:

Showers likely to affect eastern areas as rain perhaps moves in from the southwest, with some heavy outbreaks. The wind will strengthen with severe gales in the exposed southwest and northeast at times. High pressure is likely to become established in the south towards the end of October, with lower pressure in the north. Rain will arrive from the west, with some heavy bursts in the northwest and it'll be breezy, with strong winds in the north. Temperatures will be close to average and frosts will become less likely. For the start of November, confidence is currently rather low on the exact weather set up. However, it does look as if strong winds and the typical occasional stormy conditions that we usually see in autumn are less likely.

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Nov 2016 to Thursday 17 Nov 2016:

There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to this part of the forecast. At first at least it looks likely that the weather may be quite blocked, meaning that it will be slow to change and probably a bit drier than normal. With this we are also less likely to see strong winds and the typical occasional stormy conditions that we usually see in autumn. Later in November we may start to see more unsettled, changeable and sometimes windy weather again, mainly in the northwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Interesting to see the word 'blocked' used in the extended forecasts. Encouraging I'd say. I also think that last sentence is purely for balance rather than any actual trend to zonal conditions later in November (which would be bad timing) - though in fairness it only mentions the northwest .

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Oct 2016 to Friday 4 Nov 2016:

Mostly dry across England and Wales during Wednesday with bright or sunny spells, once any early mist and fog has cleared. Meanwhile, rain will arrive into the northwest, which will slowly move south-eastwards, weakening all the time. It will be cloudier with patchy rain across the south on Thursday, becoming brighter in the north. Thereafter, high pressure looks to become established across the south of the UK, with a good deal of fine and dry weather around. Meanwhile, low pressure will be influencing the weather across the far, where it will be wet and windy at times. Temperatures will probably be mostly above the average, but with some cold nights in the south, with frost and fog. Possibly turning colder as we go into early November.

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Nov 2016 to Saturday 19 Nov 2016:

There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to this part of the forecast. At first at least it looks likely that the weather will remain quite blocked, meaning that it will be slow to change and probably a stay a bit drier than normal. With this we are also less likely to see strong winds and the typical occasional stormy conditions that we usually see during the autumn. Given the time of year, and the predominance of a blocked pattern, temperatures may be on the cold side of normal. Later in November we may start to see more unsettled, changeable and sometimes windy weather again, but mainly in the northwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

so staying dry for the foreseeable according to the MO. this HP is reluctant to leave out shores I wont be surprised if HP stays with us for rest of the year leaving it dry and cold

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Oct 2016 to Sunday 6 Nov 2016:

High pressure will remain established across the south through Friday and into the weekend, bringing a good deal of dry and quiet weather for many. However, some will see occasional mist and fog form overnight and this may well be slow to clear by day. Temperatures will be mostly above average, but with some cold nights in the south, perhaps with local frost. Meanwhile, the north could be wet and windier at times through Friday and Saturday. However, from Sunday onwards there will be much colder weather with night frosts. Later in the period there is major uncertainty with the potential for cold conditions persisting but southern areas could turn wetter, windier and milder at times.

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Nov 2016 to Monday 21 Nov 2016:

There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to this part of the forecast. At first at least it looks likely that the weather pattern will remain quite blocked, meaning that it will be slow to change and probably a stay a bit drier than normal in the west, whilst rain and showers are more likely in the east at times. With this we are also less likely to see strong winds and the typical occasional stormy conditions that we usually see during the autumn. Given the time of year, and the predominance of a blocked pattern, temperatures may be on the cold side of normal. Later in November we may start to see more unsettled, changeable and sometimes windy weather again, especially towards the northwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 24 October—Sunday 30 October
Goodbye to cold mornings... well for some of us!

Monday morning starts off on a chilly note but not quite as chilly as recently. South Wales and southern England will have a fairly cloudy and grey day with patchy rain and drizzle. Sunny spells and scattered showers will continue to push into northeastern parts of England and easternmost Scotland. The rest of the UK will be dry with sunny spells.

By Tuesday morning we will see quite a contrast in temperature between north and south. Northernmost England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will start of quite chilly while the rest of England and Wales will start off on a relatively mild note as Atlantic air starts to influence how it the air feels.

There will be a lot of dry weather around on Tuesday but southernmost parts of the UK will be cloudy at times and the cloud may be just thick enough to produce a few spots of rain and drizzle at first but by the afternoon the bulk of the UK looks to be dry. We finally push the cold air out of the way overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday as westerly winds take over and we no longer have an easterly influence bringing a feed of cold air.

During Wednesday some patchy rain will affect northern and western parts of the UK but elsewhere it should remain largely dry but cloudy at times.
Thursday and Friday will see at times patchy light rain affect northern and western areas but a similar pattern emerges in that the rest of the UK should be largely dry with some sunshine at times.

As we head into next weekend, the Atlantic continues to affect the weather but high pressure starts to build across much of the UK but northernmost parts of the UK will see breezy conditions with some showers at times. This means that many of us will have a dry Halloween but north-western areas look likely to see some showers at times.

Monday 31 October—Sunday 6 November
What's going on in the Atlantic?

As we head into next week we are watching developments in the Pacific, the USA and the Atlantic. The computer models are broadly grouping together to give a pattern where warm air pushes northwards in the central and western Atlantic and this then allows cold air to push pushes southwards in the eastern Atlantic. On a pressure chart this will look like high pressure sitting to the southwest of the UK and low pressure lying somewhere to the northeast of the UK allowing a cold northwesterly flow to develop. By day there should be enough sunshine so that daytime temperatures will be close to average but overnight temperatures could be below average. The transition to a northwesterly shift in weather is complex and so there is still a lot to play for in how and if this happens.

Monday 7 November—Sunday 27 November
Autumn is nearly out of sight!

Pushing this far out in forecasting is always complex and a range of weather solutions will always emerge from the many global computer models that we look at.

The pattern that is emerging looks to be slow moving and high pressure is likely to be close to the UK. This indicates that we are likely to see limited changes in weather on a daily basis and it looks like overall we could see more overnight frosts and fog becoming more extensive. Frontal systems are unlikely to affect the UK while showers are likely close to coastal areas where the sea can still provide enough heating to help produce showers.

There's a lot that can happen until then and remember than we are transitioning from October to November the message is that we are not likely to see anything unusual for this time of year.

Next week

How is the start of winter shaping up? How will the colder forecast for next week evolve over the next few days as we get closer in time?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Caught a BBC weather forecast last night for the week ahead - can't remember if it was the Countryfile one or a later bulletin, but I wasn't happy that the forecaster ended the forecast with words to the effect of "And good news that the easterly flow will move to a westerly one as the week ends"

Oh yeah, strong winds & rain (for a good portion of the UK, primarily the north-west) is preferable to the benign conditions (and predominantly sunny in western regions)we've been experiencing lately.

Wonder where this pratt lives? The South East, I wonder? Doesn't like the smattering of cloud that the easterly flow brings that region?

More SE-centric BBC weather forecasting

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Caught a BBC weather forecast last night for the week ahead - can't remember if it was the Countryfile one or a later bulletin, but I wasn't happy that the forecaster ended the forecast with words to the effect of "And good news that the easterly flow will move to a westerly one as the week ends"

Oh yeah, strong winds & rain (for a good portion of the UK, primarily the north-west) is preferable to the benign conditions (and predominantly sunny in western regions)we've been experiencing lately.

Wonder where this pratt lives? The South East, I wonder? Doesn't like the smattering of cloud that the easterly flow brings that region?

More SE-centric BBC weather forecasting

Darren Bett

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Oct 2016 to Monday 7 Nov 2016:

High pressure will remain established across the south through the weekend, bringing a good deal of dry and quiet weather for many. However, some will see occasional mist and fog form overnight and this may well be slow to clear by day. Temperatures will be mostly above average, but with some cold nights in the south, perhaps with local frost. Meanwhile, the north of the UK is likely to be wetter and windier at times, more so further west. From Monday onwards the expectation is generally for colder weather with more widespread night frosts, and generally northerly or north-westerly winds over the UK. Indications suggest unsettled weather with showers and strong winds in the north, and generally drier weather with lighter winds further south.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Nov 2016 to Tuesday 22 Nov 2016:

The outlook for mid November looks to be predominantly settled perhaps with brief unsettled periods at times. At fist indications suggest northerly or north-westerly winds to predominate over the UK, leading to lower than average temperatures for many and a widespread risk of frosts. The expectation is also for more unsettled, showery conditions in the north, perhaps with strong winds, and drier more settled weather in the south. Towards the end of the period confidence is low, although signals suggest a change from more settled conditions towards milder and more unsettled weather at some point.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpvj0v07 

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 8 Nov 2016:

For Sunday and Monday, high pressure remains established across the south, bringing a good deal of dry and quiet weather for many. However, some will see occasional mist and fog form overnight and this may well be slow to clear by day. Temperatures will be mostly above average, but with some cold nights in the south, perhaps with local frost. Meanwhile, the north of the UK is likely to be wetter and windier at times, more so further west. Confidence is quite low from Tuesday on, although the expectation is for colder weather with more widespread night frosts, and generally northerly or north-westerly winds over the UK. Indications suggest unsettled weather with showers and strong winds at times in the north, and generally drier weather with lighter winds further south.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 23 Nov 2016:

The outlook for mid November remains uncertain. Although spells of windier and stormier weather look to be less likely than normally expected at this time of year. At first, indications suggest northerly or north-westerly winds to predominate over the UK, leading to lower than average temperatures for many and a widespread risk of frosts. The expectation is also for windier more showery conditions in the north, with snow over some higher ground, and drier more settled weather in the south. Towards the end of the period confidence continues to be low, with the more likely scenario looking to be a continuation of the mainly, drier, settled weather, although there remains a possibility of a change towards milder more unsettled conditions.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpvj0v07 

met office have covered most angles in that forecast a bit of everything then and the met office have used the word UNCERTAIN

 if a forecaster is UNCERTAIN about there own forecast ---- if in dout ---- leave it out ---- as they say .

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-weather-storm-angus-set-to-batter-britain-with-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-as-winter-finally-arrives/ar-AAjodw2?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp  REALLY ?