no disrespect to simon keeling but this pee,s me of when forecasters forecast this far ahead

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

it is nice to read what may happen ahead but always turns out to be wrong every forecaster should know that you can not really forecast from 3-5 days in advance let alone 2 months ahead,

anyway it was a nice read,

 

 

Max that day was 28.3c (not sure where though)

It also reached 29.9c in Gravesend on the 1st October 2011

I'd have expected a little higher than that in the SE…… however if that was the highest, that was the highest.

---

 

Autumnal berry loads depend upon what has gone before, not what is to come.  Or are you saying hawthorns have conscious benevolent foresight?

Reasonably technical review here

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/dbe96a83525ae1f0cc14662f498e793f/article/can_holly_forecast_winter_weather.html

I had a look on the web for a scientific basis to this belief, but although it's mentioned in various blogs, most say that they haven't found a correlation between berry crops and harsh winters

---

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-indian-summer-set-for-october-after-warmer-than-average-september/ar-BBwHBFY?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

one min its cold snow ice now indian summer,

all this continuous dry warm weather we must be in for some sort of harsh winter surely

http://newsthump.com/2016/09/28/meteorologists-claim-this-winter-will-see-worst-daily-express-weather-scaremongering-in-thirty-years/ 

:)

---

http://newsthump.com/2016/09/28/meteorologists-claim-this-winter-will-see-worst-daily-express-weather-scaremongering-in-thirty-years/

:)

From Paul Hudson's blog in November 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/756e3a7a-74c6-3e6f-8c6a-646ddc9f39d5

---

ITV sticking with MetO - no surprise there I suppose, although the revamped image looks quite familiar!
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/oct/03/met-office-revamps-itv-weather-after-losing-bbc-deal 

---

Having watched the BBC weather by John Hammond I am feeling positive because he did show a strong easterly wind and a cooler pool (blue) of air coming all the way from Russia heading our way on Wednesday and Thursday - is this the sign of things to come?! Also imagine the pattern we have this week but in 8 weeks time? - I am having some positive thoughts also, combine this with an active hurricane season too! - Good sign of a proper chance for some blocking to take place. But perfect set up for a raw easterly wind with wind-chill and snow grains/dustings type - if this was to occur in winter!

---

Alex Deakin is leaving the BBC he is moving to the Met office in Exeter tomorrow

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Oct 2016 to Friday 21 Oct 2016:

The largely settled weather is likely to continue for the start of this period but it will often be rather cloudy. There'll be showers along eastern coasts and it will remain rather cool for the time of year. It is likely to be breezy at times too, across eastern and southern coastal areas especially, with a low risk of gales in the southwest. There'll be some cold nights as well in the north, with a local frost possible and the chance of some mist or fog patches in rural parts, but it will be less cold by night in the south. More unsettled conditions will then move in from the south by the weekend, with showers or longer spells of rain for the south and west in particular.

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Oct 2016 to Saturday 5 Nov 2016:

Although conditions may turn more settled again for a time early in the period, there is expected to be a trend towards more changeable weather into late October and early November. The most unsettled weather is expected in the north and northwest, with the strongest winds and the heaviest outbreaks of rain here. Temperatures will vary through the period, but will probably be around average for the time of year, perhaps just above in the south. Northern areas by contrast will probably see average temperatures too, so there will be an increasing risk of overnight frosts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BEAST FROM THE EAST Britain to be rocked by snowy storms, howling gales, freezing temperatures and flooding

The Met Office has forecast shocking “storm systems” hitting in the second half of October

BRITAIN faces shocking October floods and tempests before winter starts early with a ‘Beast from the East’ bringing -10C temperatures. The Indian Summer is well and truly over as the Met Office forecast a chilly week ahead with freezing frosts and colder-than-normal days.

“A plunge of Arctic air may arrive,” said The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1940637/britain-to-be-rocked-by-snowy-storms-howling-gales-freezing-temperatures-and-flooding/ 

 

Autumnal berry loads depend upon what has gone before, not what is to come.  Or are you saying hawthorns have conscious benevolent foresight?

What goes before has a bearing on what is to come.

---

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 10 October—Sunday 16 October
High pressure losing its grip.

High pressure which has been responsible for the mostly dry, settled start to October looks set to remain close by for much of this week. However showers will become more of a feature. They will drift in from the North Sea and some will be on the heavy side later on Monday and into Tuesday, especially across East Anglia and southeast England. Driest weather during the first half of the week with the best of the sunshine will be over southwest England, west Wales, Northern Ireland and western Scotland. As we go through the week, easterly winds will become stronger and it will feel cooler, especially along North Sea coasts. Also showers will become more frequent over eastern areas where it will remain rather cloudy. On Friday, an area of low pressure will approach from the southwest bringing some rain into Southwest England while showers will continue in many eastern areas, heaviest across eastern Scotland. The more persistent rain will edge further northwards over the weekend.

Monday 17 October—Sunday 23 October
Weather changing but only slowly

It does look as though high pressure will have less of an influence on our weather during next week. A slow moving area of low pressure will bring outbreaks of rain across the country during the early part of the week, heavy at times, especially in the south and east although not amounting to much across the northwest. Easterly winds will be quite strong with temperatures close to normal for the second half of October. High pressure will not have moved too far away and may briefly return to give a more settled interlude towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This will bring drier, brighter conditions with lighter winds. However clearer skies at nights are likely to lead to colder nights with a touch of frost.

Monday 24 October—Sunday 6 November
As Halloween approaches, any spooky weather?

The last week of October is likely to begin with some settled weather. The trend will then be to a more changeable period of weather as we finish the month and move into November although we are expecting nothing too dramatic. Deeper areas of low pressure will approach the UK from the Atlantic bringing spells of wetter and windier weather. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are likely to be over northwest Scotland. These conditions look set to continue into the first week of November. As our air is expected to come in from the Atlantic, temperatures will very very close to normal for this time of year. However there will be drier, clearer conditions between weather systems with lighter systems overnight frosts.

Next week

Will we see any signs of a colder snap?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Oct 2016 to Monday 24 Oct 2016:

Low pressure is expected to be dominant over the UK over the weekend, with cloud and spells of rain and showers affecting many parts. Some areas will experience light, variable winds, while others will see stronger winds. Temperatures will likely be around average or a touch below, leading to a cool feel in more persistent rain or stronger winds. For the following week, there is a small possibility of more settled conditions re-establishing. However, the most likely scenario is for the generally unsettled weather to continue, with spells of strong winds and rain, interspersed by drier and brighter weather with showers at times. Temperatures will likely fluctuate around average, with a risk of frost overnight.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 8 Nov 2016:

Current indications are for changeable weather to predominate through the end of October and the start of November, similar to that normally expected at this time of year. Therefore, we are likely to see occasional spells of strong winds and rain, interspersed with brief spells of drier and brighter weather. In these scenarios, the west of the UK will usually experience stronger winds and more persistent rain and cloud, with generally drier and brighter weather in the east. Temperatures will also be generally similar to average, so beginning to feel cooler by day, and chilly at times overnight, with an increasing risk of frost. However, there is a possibility for a more settled regime to re-establish itself at some point, giving a longer period of more settled weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Oct 2016 to Friday 28 Oct 2016:

There'll initially be some rain or showers in the east on Wednesday before high pressure builds from the west. The high then extends across the rest of the UK, bringing more settled conditions through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions with sunny spells by day, with possible frost, mist and fog patches overnight. Temperatures will be near normal, but with some cold nights. A west-east split is then likely into the following week, where it'll likely stay settled and mostly dry in the east and south-east, but mist and fog are likely overnight with some chilly nights too. The greatest risk of more unsettled weather will be in the west and northwest though, where further outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible at times.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Oct 2016 to Saturday 12 Nov 2016:

From late October current signals are for a reduced likelihood of typical autumn storminess, with slow transitions between spells of settled and unsettled conditions most likely. Although the general signal is for mainly settled conditions, we will see some short periods of rain, the heaviest and most frequent of these are likely in the west and northwest, with also a risk of some strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to balance out close to average through this period, but with the possibility of some chilly nights too.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Thanks Gav

High Pressure dominance one would think

---

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Oct 2016 to Monday 31 Oct 2016:

Looking ahead in the forecast it looks as though we will keep a strong influence of high pressure, particularly to the northeast of the UK. However, there are increasing signs of low pressure edging towards southwest England introducing a brisk southeasterly wind to all. During this time we are likely to see bands of rain spreading in from the southwest, though there is uncertainty over how far north the rain will extend. Temperatures here are likely to be milder than we would normally expect for late October, but it will be often windy with the risk of gales. The most settled conditions will be in the far north, closest to the higher pressure, which will lead to slightly colder than average conditions with the overnight risk of frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Nov 2016 to Tuesday 15 Nov 2016:

As we head into the start of November the signal initially looks set to continue with a blocking high close to the northeast of the UK and lower pressure to the southwest. During this time we would expect the most frequent rain in the southwest of England which will often be associated with strong winds. The driest weather is likely to be in the far north, however here it may often be chilly. Towards the middle of November there are increasing signs that there will be more mobility to our weather patterns with areas of low pressure crossing from west to east bringing spells of rain to all. Though at this early stage there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing of this change to our weather pattern.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

"Sou Westerly"  Needs to  worn ...Batten down the shed...

---

Interestingly a gentleman farmer whom I had a brief chat with at the local coffee shop when visiting the Cotsworlds swore on his life we were in for a very hard winter basing his forecast on the state of his Hawthorne bushes! He implied it with such conviction that I went away with the thought that possibly 2016/17 winter season may herald a change to a colder than average winter ....

It is old folklore - my grandmother always used to maintain that a heavy berry season on the hawthorne predicted a hard winter ahead, but I have to say that I have never noticed any such correlation.

 

---