Onwards...

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2016 to Friday 22 Jan 2016:

A cold spell is expected to be underway around the middle of next week which will most likely last into the weekend across much of the UK. The weather will tend to vary day to day, with some dry and sunny periods, but also wintry showers which will occasionally merge to give longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Snow will fall to low levels at times in the north, but also perhaps in the south too. Temperatures will be below average with widespread overnight frosts as well as a risk of icy surfaces. As we go through the following week it seems most probable that less cold weather will return as Atlantic weather systems try to move across the country bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

Thought I'd post this as a reminder

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2016 to Friday 22 Jan 2016:

A cold spell is expected to be underway around the middle of next week which will most likely last into the weekend across much of the UK. The weather will tend to vary day to day, with some dry and sunny periods, but also wintry showers which will occasionally merge to give longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Snow will fall to low levels at times in the north, but also perhaps in the south too. Temperatures will be below average with widespread overnight frosts as well as a risk of icy surfaces. As we go through the following week it seems most probable that less cold weather will return as Atlantic weather systems try to move across the country bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

Thought I'd post this as a reminder

Is that this afternoon's update or last night's?

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Is that this afternoon's update or last night's?

thats this afternoons update - most current.

The further extended update hints at a return to high pressure over the South and mild wet & windy for the north west.

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Jan 2016 to Sunday 7 Feb 2016:
The strongest signal for the period is that generally unsettled conditions will prevail with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain is expected to be heaviest and most persistent in the north and west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The south and east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas, but further cold spells are possible.

The 5 - 16 day one above is out of date, cold lasting through next weekend!
Martin

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The 5 - 16 day one above is out of date, cold lasting through next weekend!
Martin

the one gooner posted and I posted are the current ones, if you know different could you kindly please post for us to see 😊

Where's Gavin's thoughts this Saturday!?

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Indeed..I wondered likewise...I do trust that he is ok?....

Indeed..I wondered likewise...I do trust that he is ok?....

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Jan 2016 to Saturday 23 Jan 2016:

A cold spell is expected to be underway at the start of this period which will most likely last through to the start of the following week. The weather will tend to vary day to day, with some dry and sunny periods, but also wintry showers which will occasionally merge to give longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Snow will fall to low levels at times, this most likely in the north. Temperatures will be below average, with widespread overnight frosts as well as a risk of icy surfaces. Towards the end of the period it seems most probable that less cold weather will return as Atlantic weather systems try to move across the country bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain to many areas.

In the current climate its a waste of time looking at the extended forecast, this is far enough ahead.

Temps  below average

It seems most probable that less cold weather will return at the end.

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Where's Gavin's thoughts this Saturday!?

Gavin has mentioned on Facebook the other day that his dad had taken ill and is in hospital, so he's not going to be able to provide his weather updates for some time.

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Gavin, if you are reading this our thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

Last night's BBC Radio 4 forecast at 12.30 mentioned the chance of 'disruptive' snow later this week countrywide. Said it was still a long way off but something to watch.

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I'm guessing the forecasts are referring to Friday which seems a bit surprising given the timescale. The Met Office text forecasts I have seen suggest rain or showers with snow mainly on high ground. I'm not entirely sure that tied in with the ECM or UKMO data but there you go. The 5 day "auto forecasts" seem even more depressing for wintry weather fans. In contrast the TV forecasters "hints" suggest more. All a big confusing.

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I'm guessing the forecasts are referring to Friday which seems a bit surprising given the timescale. The Met Office text forecasts I have seen suggest rain or showers with snow mainly on high ground. I'm not entirely sure that tied in with the ECM or UKMO data but there you go. The 5 day "auto forecasts" seem even more depressing for wintry weather fans. In contrast the TV forecasters "hints" suggest more. All a big confusing.

Michael, I wonder if it's a case of the raw output v the forecasters' judgement?  Similar in a sense to the way the fax charts are produced, ie following model guidance but overlaid with trends/experience. 

Certainly with low pressure in the mix with cold air the ingredients should be in place.

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I was thinking the same however the fact that the written Met Office forecasts reflect the automated ones was what raised an eyebrow with me. I would have thought that forecasters' judgement would be used for those too. The subtext/reading between the lines in these forecasts suggests cold but not quite "cold enough".

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I think the met office auto forecasts are based on MOGREPS. I find them very accurate in the short term I.e for the next 24 hours or so with regards to temperature and chances of sleet/snow/rain.
However in the longer term they seem more suspect. They also vastly under estimate summer highs temps and winter low temps. Perhaps they are based on an ensemble mean which leads to moderated solutions in the long term?
Shows sleet at 200m asl here for Thursday.

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The south west Met forecast is already mentioning wintry showers on high ground tomorrow and snow on hills and maybe to lower levels from the Tuesday to Thursday.

If anything that is marginally more wintry than the forecasts across Scotland which state for Tuesday until Thursday:

"Remaining unsettled and cold with showers or longer spells of rain and snow, the snow mainly over higher ground. Windy on Tuesday, with a severe frost on Tuesday night."

As I sad strange.

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Online weather keeps things on the cold side:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20160110 

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