Tomasz Schafernaker ‏@Schafernaker 2h2 hours ago
Think that this 'cold snap' nxt week isn't going to be that cold, we'll go #brrr for a bit and then it's back to mild again week after?

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Not according to the Sunday Telegraph weather section says brace yourself for a winter of 63 scenario !

Not according to the Sunday Telegraph weather section says brace yourself for a winter of 63 scenario !

 

Well the latest 1315 BBC week ahead. .....7c -9c for the south of England on weds -Friday ...hardly bone shattering! It actually feels like spring in the air down here now, with the showers moving away , the sun out, the spring flowers out and noticeably lengthening days.

 

 

 

 

Well the latest 1315 BBC week ahead. .....7c -9c for the south of England on weds -Friday ...hardly bone shattering! It actually feels like spring in the air down here now, with the showers moving away , the sun out, the spring flowers out and noticeably lengthening days.

 

 

Very odd as Stav has just said much colder towards the end of the week.

Also wording changed from Wintry Showers to Snow .

Stav " increasingly wintry snow in places keep tuned to the forecast for that "

 

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also saw the sunday telepgraph saying that cold could last through till march and a 63 type freeze up!

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Jan 2016 to Sunday 24 Jan 2016:

Remaining cold until at least the start of next week, with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. The showers falling as sleet or snow at times, especially towards the north. Snow may settle at times just about anywhere, though mainly on higher ground. Widespread frosts expected morning and night, with the added risk of icy patches following wintry showers. From the middle of next week onwards, it looks as if the cold weather may gradually give way to somewhat milder and wetter conditions from the west, though confidence is low at this stage. With a westerly flow of air likely to become established by next weekend, the wettest weather then becomes more likely towards the northwest of the United Kingdom.

That's the key wording

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UK Outlook for Friday 15 Jan 2016 to Sunday 24 Jan 2016:

Remaining cold until at least the start of next week, with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. The showers falling as sleet or snow at times, especially towards the north. Snow may settle at times just about anywhere, though mainly on higher ground. Widespread frosts expected morning and night, with the added risk of icy patches following wintry showers. From the middle of next week onwards, it looks as if the cold weather may gradually give way to somewhat milder and wetter conditions from the west, though confidence is low at this stage. With a westerly flow of air likely to become established by next weekend, the wettest weather then becomes more likely towards the northwest of the United Kingdom.

That's the key wording

Much in line with the ECM charts for the last day or two.

The words " the cold weather may gradually give way to somewhat milder and wetter conditions from the west, though confidence is low at this stage" shouldn't be ignored either.

 

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CF Forecast

L Lear

 

Details very sketchy it seems

-5c -9c overnight Tuesday

Snow on Thurs was really a very big ?

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I just saw the BBC Countryfile weather for the week ahead!
Was not that happy - nothing cold at all - SW are expecting seasonal temperatures. 7 or 8c is hardly cold ...didn't say much about the band of rain sleet and snow on Wednesday night into Thursday. The coldest night will be Tuesday night. pfff?? Perhaps drier but yet no weather warnings for heavy snow - not even for Scotland.

All in all a disappointment. - It's a cooler spell and a brief one.

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I just saw the BBC Countryfile weather for the week ahead!
Was not that happy - nothing cold at all - SW are expecting seasonal temperatures. 7 or 8c is hardly cold ...didn't say much about the band of rain sleet and snow on Wednesday night into Thursday. The coldest night will be Tuesday night. pfff?? Perhaps drier but yet no weather warnings for heavy snow - not even for Scotland.

All in all a disappointment. - It's a cooler spell and a brief one.

Heavy Snow has NEVER been on the cards though Tally

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48:30 in..

interesting interview

 

https://twit.tv/shows/new-screen-savers/episodes/35?autostart=false

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UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, especially in the northwest. However, there is a reasonable chance of some longer dry spells due to a greater likelihood of high pressure, especially in the south. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, especially in the northwest. However, there is a reasonable chance of some longer dry spells due to a greater likelihood of high pressure, especially in the south. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

15 days away , much can change and most probably will

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Heavy Snow has NEVER been on the cards though Tally

 

I know but still...would expect more than this! (from a cold spell).

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The local met office forecast for here is also very uninspiring and talks about showers perhaps wintry over high ground on Wednesday and Friday with a longer spell of rain on Thursday which possibly could be wintry esp over high ground .
I.e pretty standard winter forecast. 

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The local met office forecast for here is also very uninspiring and talks about showers perhaps wintry over high ground on Wednesday and Friday with a longer spell of rain on Thursday which possibly could be wintry esp over high ground .
I.e pretty standard winter forecast. 

Agreed Tim, the 5 day forecast for here (Teesside) is for overnight lows throughout the period to be 1c above and daytime maxes of 4-5 with rain on Thursday.

Seems at odds with everything I read and see for myself via the MO. I'm sure I am wrong but it is almost as if the Beeb have decided it's too hard to call and that it's a lot easier to explain away understating temps than the possible accusation of 'scaremongering' if it turns out to be not as bad as forecast. Like I say, I'm sure they just call it as they see it, but someone has got it very wrong (the Beeb, or most of the contributors in the MO) and I guess we will only find out at the end of the week.

FWIW, the temp was 1.2 at 7.30 this morning and I had to scrape solid ice of the car windscreen...3 days before the cold arrives

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Agreed Tim, the 5 day forecast for here (Teesside) is for overnight lows throughout the period to be 1c above and daytime maxes of 4-5 with rain on Thursday.

Seems at odds with everything I read and see for myself via the MO. I'm sure I am wrong but it is almost as if the Beeb have decided it's too hard to call and that it's a lot easier to explain away understating temps than the possible accusation of 'scaremongering' if it turns out to be not as bad as forecast. Like I say, I'm sure they just call it as they see it, but someone has got it very wrong (the Beeb, or most of the contributors in the MO) and I guess we will only find out at the end of the week.

FWIW, the temp was 1.2 at 7.30 this morning and I had to scrape solid ice of the car windscreen...3 days before the cold arrives

Indeed, there doesn't seem to be much any difference from the weather at the weekend just gone and today (frost and wintry showers, snow high ground) and  that forecast for later in the week . 

Perhaps they are right but I hope not.  Thursday does look particularly difficult to forecast with a slice of milder air. 

 

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Well NO sign of any colder weather here for the SW - just a few days ago the Met O forecasted wintry showers over higher ground, ice and frost at night now it's been downgraded to showers - Met Office:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcj2x8gt4 

Regional forecast for South West England

Sunny spells with showers for most.

Today:

Blustery showers will continue to feed in from the northwest today, becoming heavy in places, especially over higher ground. Some may become organised to bring prolonged periods of rain but there will also be some sunny intervals. Maximum Temperature 7°C.

Tonight:

Throughout the night these showers will become lighter and less frequent bringing partly clear skies by morning. Winds will strengthen overnight, turning gusty along northern coasts. Minimum Temperature 4°C.

Tuesday:

Showers will become more intermittent, although the odd heavier burst is still possible. Winds will continue to strengthen, bringing strong gusts across the region. Maximum Temperature 9°C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

After a dry and crisp start on Wednesday, showers will continue to move across the region throughout the week with some strong winds and sunnier breaks in places. Staying cold.

Updated at: 0133 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

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BBC monthly outlook

Monday 11 January—Sunday 17 January
Turning even colder, with a little snow for some.

The week will commence with a slow moving and very large area of low pressure swirling over the UK. Within this area of low pressure, we can expect bands of relatively slow moving and, at times, rather heavy showers to form across many areas. These showers will present the risk of snowfall to some higher ground across the northern half of the UK, and even some higher ground across parts of southern England and Wales will not completely escape some wintry weather. In between the bands of showers though, we can expect some good spells of sunshine, although conditions will still feel pretty chilly in any winter sun. On Tuesday, northwesterly winds will strengthen, particularly across western areas of the UK where gales are possible at times, making for a bitingly cold day for many.

A mix of sunshine and showers can again be expected, and again there will be a risk of some wintry conditions for the highest ground just about anywhere in the UK. The coldest night of the week is likely to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a transient ridge of high pressure crosses the UK from the west and the large area of low pressure exits to the east. This will allow a hard frost to develop across all parts of the UK and a risk of icy conditions just about anywhere. Dry, bright and chilly conditions will prevail for many parts on Wednesday, though further wintry showers will move in from the west later. At time of issue, Thursday, Friday and Saturday were all expected to be cold days, with frosty starts, and the further risk of some sleet and snow showers, even to low levels at times, and even across southern parts of the UK.

By the end of the weekend, there will be a possibility that high pressure will start to dominate from the southwest, maintaining the cold feel, but introducing the prospect of drier conditions, at least for a time.

Monday 18 January—Sunday 24 January
Starting cold, but finishing a bit mild perhaps?..

As we move into the third full week of January, the majority of forecasting computer models and tools suggest that the UK in its entirety will begin on a relatively cold note. At time of writing, the most likely synoptic set up in the vicinity of the UK will comprise of lower pressure just to the east of the UK, and higher pressure over or just to the west, resulting in a continuation of the cold, north to northwesterly air flow that dominated much of the previous week. It is therefore likely that a mixture of rain, sleet and snow showers will affect most places at times and some clearer intervals in between.

Drier conditions may well begin to dominate as the higher pressure in the west starts to become a greater influence on the UK. Night frosts and some pretty low daytime maxima are also likely. As we approach the middle of the week, there are indications that we will start to see a return to an Atlantic westerly airstream, which may well herald the beginning of a slightly milder spell, with low pressure systems bringing the wettest and windiest conditions to western areas. In this type of scenario, eastern parts of the UK often see the best of any drier weather.

There is a degree of uncertainty regarding the timing of the transition back to slightly milder conditions, and we will of course keep you updated here at the BBC Weather Centre.

Monday 25 January—Sunday 7 February
A milder end to the month.

Most of the longer range forecasting output points to a slightly milder end to January that will likely last into the first few week of February. Models suggest that a predominantly westerly flow will dominate weather conditions across the UK, bringing spells of wet and windy weather in association with Atlantic low pressure systems. There are signs that pressure will build to the south or southwest of the UK for a time, meaning that northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to experience the most unsettled conditions, with drier spells anticipated for southern districts.

Next week

It will be interesting to see if longer range computer models suggest any further cold spells as we move into the middle of February. Find out next week...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Jan 2016 to Monday 25 Jan 2016:

The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts. It should remain mostly dry inland, although there is the risk of occasional rain, sleet or snow showers. The start of next week should continue much the same, although more unsettled conditions are likely to spread in from the west from the mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west.

Longer range forecast has not updated at the time of posting

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast