"The biggest positive CET anomaly was 4.9C in January 1796."

If I'm not mistaken that came immediately after the frigid and record-breaking December of 1795 with its CET of -3.1c a full 10.4c degrees lower.... With only a year separating them!

For the difference with 2010 to be as stark, we'd need a CET of 9.7c... Which looks to be near the mark, so whereas what we have now is truly remarkable, it is not wholly unprecedented...

I guess that puts in into perspective, although it is indeed a remarkable month for it to get near a +5c anomaly and even more amazing is that the mild weather is nationwide and not just the CET areas.

However, as GW said, there have been some months with a -5c anomaly and I wonder if these have been summer months.  I'd expect most of the big anomalies to be plus in winter and minus in summer but I may be wrong.

 

---

 

I guess that puts in into perspective, although it is indeed a remarkable month for it to get near a +5c anomaly and even more amazing is that the mild weather is nationwide and not just the CET areas.

However, as GW said, there have been some months with a -5c anomaly and I wonder if these have been summer months.  I'd expect most of the big anomalies to be plus in winter and minus in summer but I may be wrong.

 

The largest negative anomalies are all winter months....  December 2010's anomoly was nearly 6c, with January 1963 and February 1947 tipping over 6c I believe.  It would be exceptional (possibly unprecedented) for a summer month to have an anomoly +/-4c.

The truly exceptional thing about this month (and I caveat this with potentially as we still have 12 days to go!) is the extent to which it could break the previous record.   A 9.1c (which looks easily possible) would break it by a full 1c.... It's even possible for it to be broken by 1.5, even 2c....  That would be utterly astounding.

Surely this pattern (which has lasted the best part of two months now pretty much unabated) can't last much longer.... can it?

---

A comparison.

CET up to 19th

December 2015: 9.9C

May 1996: 7.3C

 

---

Met  Office  Hadley                 9.9c.          Anomaly          5.1c.         Provisional  to 19th.

Metcheck                                 9.83c.         Anomaly           4.83c.

Netweather                            10.46c.         Anomaly            5.37c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather            9.9c.          Anomaly             4.3c.

Clevedon Weather                    11.8c.         Anomaly             4.9c.

Mount  Sorrel                           10.1c.         Anomaly             5.0c.

Peasedown St John                   10.6c.         Anomaly             5.3c.     

---

Met  Office  Hadley                 9.9c.          Anomaly          5.1c.         Provisional  to 19th.

Metcheck                                 9.83c.         Anomaly           4.83c.

Netweather                            10.46c.         Anomaly            5.37c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather            9.9c.          Anomaly             4.3c.

Clevedon Weather                    11.8c.         Anomaly             4.9c.

Mount  Sorrel                           10.1c.         Anomaly             5.0c.

Peasedown St John                   10.6c.         Anomaly             5.3c.     

My goodness 😮 :-O

 

---

The largest negative anomalies are all winter months....  December 2010's anomoly was nearly 6c, with January 1963 and February 1947 tipping over 6c I believe.  It would be exceptional (possibly unprecedented) for a summer month to have an anomoly +/-4c.

The truly exceptional thing about this month (and I caveat this with potentially as we still have 12 days to go!) is the extent to which it could break the previous record.   A 9.1c (which looks easily possible) would break it by a full 1c.... It's even possible for it to be broken by 1.5, even 2c....  That would be utterly astounding.

Surely this pattern (which has lasted the best part of two months now pretty much unabated) can't last much longer.... can it?

  I'm having a senior, blonde, female moment!  I misunderstood.  I thought GW said the biggest positive CET anomaly was 4.9C in January 1796, then I thought you said the same.  Maybe I'm just tired due to last night's wind keeping me awake. 

---

 

The largest negative anomalies are all winter months....  December 2010's anomoly was nearly 6c, with January 1963 and February 1947 tipping over 6c I believe.  It would be exceptional (possibly unprecedented) for a summer month to have an anomoly +/-4c.

The truly exceptional thing about this month (and I caveat this with potentially as we still have 12 days to go!) is the extent to which it could break the previous record.   A 9.1c (which looks easily possible) would break it by a full 1c.... It's even possible for it to be broken by 1.5, even 2c....  That would be utterly astounding.

Surely this pattern (which has lasted the best part of two months now pretty much unabated) can't last much longer.... can it?

June 1846 had a positive anomaly of +4.0C based on 1961-90 averages (so more if you were to base on 1831-60)

This is the only summer month with an anomaly of +4C or more

---

Met  Office  Hadley                 9.9c.          Anomaly          5.1c.         Provisional  to 19th.

Metcheck                                 9.83c.         Anomaly           4.83c.

Netweather                            10.46c.         Anomaly            5.37c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather            9.9c.          Anomaly             4.3c.

Clevedon Weather                    11.8c.         Anomaly             4.9c.

Mount  Sorrel                           10.1c.         Anomaly             5.0c.

Peasedown St John                   10.6c.         Anomaly             5.3c.     

Incredible, no other word for it. 😱😱😱

---

  I'm having a senior, blonde, female moment!  I misunderstood.  I thought GW said the biggest positive CET anomaly was 4.9C in January 1796, then I thought you said the same.  Maybe I'm just tired due to last night's wind keeping me awake. 

 

Yes, the biggest anomalies are negative ones, in the winter.

 

You can see from this graph that the spread between the record high (pink) and low (blue) daily CETs gets wider in winter, and that the record lows are further from the mean than the record highs.

 

---

Met  Office  Hadley                9.9c.            Anomaly          5.1c.

Metcheck                              9.73c.          Anomaly          4.74.

Netweather                         10.49c.          Anomaly          5.4c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather         9.9c.            Anomaly          4.3c.

Clevedon Weather                11.7c.            Anomaly          4.8c.

Mount  Sorrel                       10.0c.            Anomaly          4.9c.

Peasedown St John               10.6c.            Anomaly          5.3c.

 

---

 

 

Yes, the biggest anomalies are negative ones, in the winter.

 

You can see from this graph that the spread between the record high (pink) and low (blue) daily CETs gets wider in winter, and that the record lows are further from the mean than the record highs.

 

You have to near in mind, though, that the average line is 1961-1990, but the record highs and lows cover 1774-2014. The record lows I would imagine are mostly back in the 1700s/1800s when temperatures were a bit lower than in 1961-1990. However I think you're still right, the biggest extremes would still be negative ones in winter.

---

A right kick in the Chestnuts this month * should of known better*!

---

 

You have to 🐻 in mind, though, that the average line is 1961-1990, but the record highs and lows cover 1774-2014. The record lows I would imagine are mostly back in the 1700s/1800s when temperatures were a bit lower than in 1961-1990. However I think you're still right, the biggest extremes would still be negative ones in winter.

 

Good point. Better to compare the extreme highs and lows with the 5th and 95th percentile lines (the shaded yellow area) - the extreme figures are further away on the cold side than on the warm side.

---

 

Yes, the biggest anomalies are negative ones, in the winter.

You can see from this graph that the spread between the record high (pink) and low (blue) daily CETs gets wider in winter, and that the record lows are further from the mean than the record highs.

 

Thanks Rob.  Yes that graph demonstrates it very well and it's interesting to see the differences.

---

Jeez look at these

---

Wow, many of those actually show an upward trend in minimum temps since the end of September!

---

Courtesy of weather spark, Manchester this year

---

Jeez look at these

How about the trend line on this? (Source)

Of course, it just so happens that the 30-day period starts just as we had a colder blip, but it really makes for remarkable viewing - a spring-like temperature rise just as we're heading into the depths of winter!

---

 

How about the trend line on this? (Source)

Of course, it just so happens that the 30-day period starts just as we had a colder blip, but it really makes for remarkable viewing - a spring-like temperature rise just as we're heading into the depths of winter!

Remarkable 

---

What's doubly remarkable about that Manston record is that the Tmax numbers have been even more consistently above normal than the Tmin ones. There are a few little dips on the latter but the daily max has hung around double figures pretty much the whole time.

Met Office mean 9.9C again to 21st. It should tip over 10C today.

---