You are probably not alone,everyone else is as well

 But those of us who went a bit above average didn't expect to be 4 or 5C too low! 

I don't know if there's ever been a month since we started this competition, when every single one of us has gone too low but I know a man who will know and there's a first time for everything!

It's coming up to 10pm in the middle of December and it's still 11.3c here.  Amazing!

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 But those of us who went a bit above average didn't expect to be 4 or 5C too low! 

I don't know if there's ever been a month since we started this competition, when every single one of us has gone too low but I know a man who will know and there's a first time for everything!

It's coming up to 10pm in the middle of December and it's still 11.3c here.  Amazing!

There have been plenty of months where everyone has been too low but nothing like this month. Everyone is going to be at least 2C too low.

So the CET date record has fallen today. Not the warmest day of the month but the CET record for today was 10.8C. My estimate is 11.3C for today.

The latest output suggests the CET date record will be exceeded on each of the next 4 days. A cooler day on Monday before another date record is likely on Tuesday. So potentially 6 date records in the space of 7 consecutive days. Truly astonishing.

The CET anomalies for the next 5 days are expected to be:

17th +8.74C
18th +7.48C
19th +9.52C
20th +7.95C
21st +4.97C
22nd +7.55C

My CET estimate to 30 Dec is now 9.64C. So looking ever more likely that December will finish slightly ahead of November and potentially a full 1.5C above the current December record of 8.1C. Completely bonkers. I have never seen anything like it. The CET records in April 2007 and 2011 were quite special but this month easily tops both of them.

Thanks GW. I've been glued to your updates this month, as I'm finding it absolutely fascinating.
That 9.6 estimate would break the March record too wouldn't it?

So the CET date record has fallen today. Not the warmest day of the month but the CET record for today was 10.8C. My estimate is 11.3C for today.

The latest output suggests the CET date record will be exceeded on each of the next 4 days. A cooler day on Monday before another date record is likely on Tuesday. So potentially 6 date records in the space of 7 consecutive days. Truly astonishing.

The CET anomalies for the next 5 days are expected to be:

17th +8.74C
18th +7.48C
19th +9.52C
20th +7.95C
21st +4.97C
22nd +7.55C

My CET estimate to 30 Dec is now 9.64C. So looking ever more likely that December will finish slightly ahead of November and potentially a full 1.5C above the current December record of 8.1C. Completely bonkers. I have never seen anything like it. The CET records in April 2007 and 2011 were quite special but this month easily tops both of them.

Thanks for the objectivity of the data and the frankness of your comment.  We are living in remarkable times where all-time maximum temperature records are being broken on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.  

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Thanks GW. I've been glued to your updates this month, as I'm finding it absolutely fascinating.
That 9.6 estimate would break the March record too wouldn't it?

Absolutely it would be warmer than any March since records began. 

To think we have lived through the 2nd coldest December on record and probably the mildest December on record.

I lived through February 1986 and 1990 and later 1998 and that was a 8.4C contrast. This will be even larger if December record falls, at least 8.9C if correct.

It could beat the February 1947/February 1990/98 contrast, January 1963/2007 contrast. They are the largest contrasts that anyone alive now could have lived through but there is a large interval between the two.

December 2010 and 2015 is only 5 years.

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To think we have lived through the 2nd coldest December on record and probably the mildest December on record.

I lived through February 1986 and 1990 and later 1998 and that was a 8.4C contrast. This will be even larger if December record falls, at least 8.9C if correct.

It could beat the February 1947/February 1990/98 contrast, January 1963/2007 contrast. They are the largest contrasts that anyone alive now could have lived through but there is a large interval between the two.

December 2010 and 2015 is only 5 years.

 

wow I didn't realise December 2010 was the 2nd coldest december, just goes to show how chaotic the weather can be sometimes. I was living in Halifax quite high up, and I think we had snow on the ground for about six weeks!

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So the CET date record has fallen today. Not the warmest day of the month but the CET record for today was 10.8C. My estimate is 11.3C for today.

The latest output suggests the CET date record will be exceeded on each of the next 4 days. A cooler day on Monday before another date record is likely on Tuesday. So potentially 6 date records in the space of 7 consecutive days. Truly astonishing.

The CET anomalies for the next 5 days are expected to be:

17th +8.74C
18th +7.48C
19th +9.52C
20th +7.95C
21st +4.97C
22nd +7.55C

My CET estimate to 30 Dec is now 9.64C. So looking ever more likely that December will finish slightly ahead of November and potentially a full 1.5C above the current December record of 8.1C. Completely bonkers. I have never seen anything like it. The CET records in April 2007 and 2011 were quite special but this month easily tops both of them.

Phew - this is absolutely amazing.

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Phew - this is absolutely amazing.

 

I agree. So much moaning on the model thread , but surely record-breaking weather is nothing to be sniffed at, whether it is warm, cold, dry or wet. Interesting times indeed!

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Met Office Hadley                      9.3c.        Anomaly      4.4c.   provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                                 9.38c        Anomaly      4.38c.

Netweather                             10.1c.        Anomaly      9.2c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather            9.4c.         Anomaly      3.8c.

Clevedon Weather                    11.5c.        Anomaly      4.6c.

Mount   Sorrel                           9.6c.         Anomaly      4.5c.

Peasedown   St John                 10.2c.        Anomaly      4.9c.    

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So if we end up with a cet of 9.6c that's 1.5c above the record that in its self must be a record. Crazy global warming times!

 

 

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There have been plenty of months where everyone has been too low but nothing like this month. Everyone is going to be at least 2C too low.

  I knew you'd have the answer but it's amazing that we'll all be 2c too low.  Crazy weather and to be breaking the record by so much too is even more amazing! 

It's times like this that I'm so glad I joined TWO, so I can share the experience with other like minded people. 

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So if we end up with a cet of 9.6c that's 1.5c above the record that in its self must be a record. Crazy global warming times!

 

 

 

Well- I'm not convinced; let's look at 2 other calendar months- May and June.Highest May CET 1833: 15.1C Only 1992 in recent years has had a bark at its leg: 13.6C (that's -1.5C).

Then June: 1846 at 18.2C; even with the synoptically-unusual conditions of that famed year, we're 1.2C adrift. Take it out and we're left with 16.4C in 1970 (-1.8C)

How we attribute that to GW IDK.

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 Well- I'm not convinced; let's look at 2 other calendar months- May and June.Highest May CET 1833: 15.1C Only 1992 in recent years has had a bark at its leg: 13.6C (that's -1.5C).

Then June: 1846 at 18.2C; even with the synoptically-unusual conditions of that famed year, we're 1.2C adrift. Take it out and we're left with 16.4C in 1970 (-1.8C)

How we attribute that to GW IDK.

Careful

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQlHaGhYoF0

 

Careful

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQlHaGhYoF0

I'm assuming that means 'be careful'. I'm not challenging GW; I'm reminding you that highly anomalous monthly data does not singularly represent a manifestation of it.

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Another CET date record today. We didn't quite make 13C. I calculate 12.73C but that still makes it the second warmest December day on record in the CET area after 12 December 1994 with 12.9C.

My latest calculations for the final December CET put it at 9.67C. The way things are going I would not be surprised if we managed to get to 10C but I think that is probably just out of reach.

That said we should get back to a running mean of 10C next Tuesday before things cool down a little over the Christmas period. But it is looking like very mild conditions will return for the last few days of the month.

 

 

Well- I'm not convinced; let's look at 2 other calendar months- May and June.Highest May CET 1833: 15.1C Only 1992 in recent years has had a bark at its leg: 13.6C (that's -1.5C).

Then June: 1846 at 18.2C; even with the synoptically-unusual conditions of that famed year, we're 1.2C adrift. Take it out and we're left with 16.4C in 1970 (-1.8C)

How we attribute that to GW IDK.

 

Im certainly not denying the variables of the weather just look at December 2010. But the consistency of the warming trend recently is incredible. In the last 20 years we've had the warmest CET - Year 2014, Spring 2011, Autumn 2006, April 2011, July 2006, August 1995, September 2006, October 2001, November 1994 and December 2015. These records go back over 350 years that can't be a coincidence or natural variables that's definitely a warming trend.

 

 

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Im certainly not denying the variables of the weather just look at December 2010. But the consistency of the warming trend recently is incredible. In the last 20 years we've had the warmest CET - Year 2014, Spring 2011, Autumn 2006, April 2011, July 2006, August 1995, September 2006, October 2001, November 1994 and December 2015. These records go back over 350 years that can't be a coincidence or natural variables that's definitely a warming trend.

 

 

Yes Most months have had their records beaten or at least close to being matched with the exception of May and June. One thing to note about the LIA is that the UK was far drier and the warmest late spring/early Summer periods seem to coincide with a lack in soil moisture... 1992 for example came off the back of an exceptionally dry winter.

All speculation of course but when we do get the right conditions the records nowadays are usually well beaten.

Crazy to think that the CET by the last few days of the month will rank amongst one of the warmest April's in the CET region over the past 100 years.

That is unless the ECM comes off.

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Another CET date record today. We didn't quite make 13C. I calculate 12.73C but that still makes it the second warmest December day on record in the CET area after 12 December 1994 with 12.9C.

My latest calculations for the final December CET put it at 9.67C. The way things are going I would not be surprised if we managed to get to 10C but I think that is probably just out of reach.

That said we should get back to a running mean of 10C next Tuesday before things cool down a little over the Christmas period. But it is looking like very mild conditions will return for the last few days of the month.

I think even if we break the all time CET high record by a full 1C that will be a big achievement itself. If we hit 10C for the CET record that will be just phenemonal.

I do wonder what the statistical possibilities are for a CET 5C higher than normal. Must be 1 in 500 years I would reckon.

 

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