I make the daily CET for the next week something like the following:

Mon 7.5
Tues 9.5
Wed 13.0
Thurs 13.5
Fri 10.5
Sat 10.5
Sun 11.5

Weekly CET 10.1

The highest CET mean for any day in December going back to 1772 has never reached 13C before so that would drive a cart and horses through the record if it came off

I'll watch that space on Thursday

I think this year the seasonal temperature differences will be smaller than usual.  Summer was cooler and now winter is warmer, so far.  I remember other years when Autumn and early winter have been mild.  One year my dad picked a rose from his garden on Christmas Day.

 

The highest CET mean for any day in December going back to 1772 has never reached 13C before so that would drive a cart and horses through the record if it came off

 

I'll watch that space on Thursday

It had to happen eventually- after all, on 12th 1994 it was a near miss at 12.9C

Met Office Hadley                      9.3c.         Anomaly       4.4c.  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                                  9.12c.       Anomaly       4.12c.

Netweather                               9.84c.       Anomaly       4.75c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather             9.1c.         Anomaly       3.5c.

Clevedon Weather                    11.3c.         Anomaly       4.4c.

Mount   Sorrel                            9.3c.        Anomaly        4.2c.

Peasedown St John Mean            10.1c.      Anomaly         4.8c. 

Just did a rough CET estimate off the GFS 12z - which has the period 15th-22nd around 1.5*C warmer than the 12z of 11th Dec - and got 9.7*C to the 25th with 9.4*C to the 30th.

That corresponds to anomalies not far off +5*C. That's the sort of thing you might expect to see in continental regions as a result of unusually low snow cover, for example.

I wonder how far above average the temps are running in Europe. A number of single-day anomaly maps I've seen of late have been widely between +4 and +8*C with a few +10*C in there for good measure.

Madness.

Just did a rough CET estimate off the GFS 12z - which has the period 15th-22nd around 1.5*C warmer than the 12z of 11th Dec - and got 9.7*C to the 25th with 9.4*C to the 30th.

That corresponds to anomalies not far off +5*C. That's the sort of thing you might expect to see in continental regions as a result of unusually low snow cover, for example.

I wonder how far above average the temps are running in Europe. A number of single-day anomaly maps I've seen of late have been widely between +4 and +8*C with a few +10*C in there for good measure.

Madness.

Amazing James - just think if this was in July we would have to get 32C or more day in day out  as daytime maxes to get anywhere near a CET positive anomaly of +5C.

Just did a rough CET estimate off the GFS 12z - which has the period 15th-22nd around 1.5*C warmer than the 12z of 11th Dec - and got 9.7*C to the 25th with 9.4*C to the 30th.

That corresponds to anomalies not far off +5*C. That's the sort of thing you might expect to see in continental regions as a result of unusually low snow cover, for example.

I wonder how far above average the temps are running in Europe. A number of single-day anomaly maps I've seen of late have been widely between +4 and +8*C with a few +10*C in there for good measure.

Madness.

Just done a similar calculation and get the same results. To the 28th I get a CET of 9.52C. This is astonishing.

It is now possible the CET for December could finish above the November figure. That in itself is not a remarkable statement except when you realise that the November figure was only 0.6C shy of the all time record. Also, as Kev stated the other day we could find that this December is warmer than any March on record (current March CET record is 9.2C in 1957). Bear in mind that the mean March CET for 1981-2010 is 2C above the December figure (6.6C vs 4.6C).

Latest data also suggest we could see 5 CET date records in a row from Wednesday. Friday could be marginal but the other days are currently looking like comfortably beating the record. These are based on estimates only and so the actual figures could end up being quite different.

The CET currently stands at 9.01C by my calculations and has lost 1C in just 4 days. It has been quite cool really relatively speaking but even yesterday which was the coldest day of the month was still 0.9C above average!

The CET looks like stabilising tomorrow before rising again from Wednesday potentially reaching 9.9C by Sunday before stabilising again.

It would take a remarkable sudden pattern shift for us not to break the December CET record. It is looking increasingly likely that the record could be broken by more than 1C which would be truly remarkable.

December 2010 was 5.3C below the 1981-2000 mean. This year could be close to 5C above the mean.

It's 6.7C here which is still +3.2C. However my December average is below the real long term due to exceptional influence of 2009 + 2010.
The very mild month fuss is mostly a southern thing again, Scotland will be near average I suspect and Northern England only a degree or so above the norm.
Considering November and December have been the only above average months here it has been a kind of average to cool year.
Our annual mean is on 8.7C and will go down slightly yet, it's currently about -0.2C

It's 6.7C here which is still +3.2C. However my December average is below the real long term due to exceptional influence of 2009 + 2010.
The very mild month fuss is mostly a southern thing again, Scotland will be near average I suspect and Northern England only a degree or so above the norm.
Considering November and December have been the only above average months here it has been a kind of average to cool year.
Our annual mean is on 8.7C and will go down slightly yet, it's currently about -0.2C

The current stats show an increasingly anomalous positive trend as you move north to south. That said even parts of Scotland are seeing a very warm month so far. A selection of stations:-

Stornoway +0.6C
Wick +0.9C
Leuchars +1.6C
Edinburgh Gogarbank +2.5C
Eskdalemuir +2.7C
Prestwick +2.8C
Liverpool Crosby +4.4C
Linton-on-Ouse +4.5C
Cardiff St Athan +5.0C
High Wycombe +5.0C
Yeovilton +6.1C
Middle Wallop +6.1C
Bournemouth Hurn +6.1C

 

The current stats show an increasingly anomalous positive trend as you move north to south. That said even parts of Scotland are seeing a very warm month so far. A selection of stations:-

Stornoway +0.6C
Wick +0.9C
Leuchars +1.6C
Edinburgh Gogarbank +2.5C
Eskdalemuir +2.7C
Prestwick +2.8C
Liverpool Crosby +4.4C
Linton-on-Ouse +4.5C
Cardiff St Athan +5.0C
High Wycombe +5.0C
Yeovilton +6.1C
Middle Wallop +6.1C
Bournemouth Hurn +6.1C

Its quite possible, probable more like that there could not be one single air frost this month which will be even more remarkable given December more times than not, records more air frosts than any other month and Bournemouth Hurn is a frost prone area. A 10c+ mean is here is almost a certainty now.

This is turning out to be an incredable month!

Slightly off topic but a couple of family members just came back from a long weekend in  NYC and every day were able to walk around in t-shirt & jeans as most others were, in balmy (barmy) temps of 18c-19c. A year ago it was snowmaggedon over there.

Thanks as always for these insights into your incredibly comprehensive stats GW 

Though GFS is trying to nudge the temps Wed-Thu down a notch as of the 06z today, I'd not be surprised if the period didn't get much below 13*C or even 14*C IMBY and then climbed to around 15*C given that models' recent errors (typically 1-2*C too low for night mins, 0.5 -1*C for day maxes).

Applying this to Saturday with its projected max of 15 to 16*C very widely, having trended upward in the past 12 hours, the mind boggles.

Edit: replaced the lower-res of yesterday's GFS 12z with that of today's GFS 00z op and that was enough to produce a final CET anomaly of more than +5.0*C.

Met   Office   Hadley             9.1c.          Anomaly          4.2c.     Provisional to  14th.

Metcheck                             9.04c.         Anomaly           4.05c.

Netweather                          9.75c.         Anomaly           4.66c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        9.0c.           Anomaly           3.0c.

Clevedon  Weather               11.3c.          Anomaly           4.4c.

Mount      Sorrel                    9.2c.          Anomaly            4.1c.

Peasedown St John  Mean      10.0c.        Anomaly            4.7c.

Mean here this month is 10.6c. Staggering. 

Mean here this month is 10.6c. Staggering. 

11.0 here Steve

Met  Office  Hadley               9.2c.          Anomaly         4.3c.    Provisional to  15th.

Metcheck                             9.19c.        Anomaly         4.19c.

Netweather                          9.8c.          Anomaly         4.71c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather        9.1c.          Anomaly         3.5c.

Clevedon Weather               11.4c.         Anomaly          4.5c.

Mount Sorrel                         9.4c.         Anomaly          4.3c.

Peasedown St John              10.1c.         Anomaly          4.8c.     

<<< looks back through the thread to remind himself what guesstimate he went for this month >>>

<<< ponders to self, "I'm screwed" >>>

<<< looks back through the thread to remind himself what guesstimate he went for this month >>>

 

<<< ponders to self, "I'm screwed" >>>

 

You are probably not alone,everyone else is as well