Just did a rough CET estimate off the GFS 12z - which has the period 15th-22nd around 1.5*C warmer than the 12z of 11th Dec - and got 9.7*C to the 25th with 9.4*C to the 30th.
That corresponds to anomalies not far off +5*C. That's the sort of thing you might expect to see in continental regions as a result of unusually low snow cover, for example.
I wonder how far above average the temps are running in Europe. A number of single-day anomaly maps I've seen of late have been widely between +4 and +8*C with a few +10*C in there for good measure.
Madness.
Just done a similar calculation and get the same results. To the 28th I get a CET of 9.52C. This is astonishing.
It is now possible the CET for December could finish above the November figure. That in itself is not a remarkable statement except when you realise that the November figure was only 0.6C shy of the all time record. Also, as Kev stated the other day we could find that this December is warmer than any March on record (current March CET record is 9.2C in 1957). Bear in mind that the mean March CET for 1981-2010 is 2C above the December figure (6.6C vs 4.6C).
Latest data also suggest we could see 5 CET date records in a row from Wednesday. Friday could be marginal but the other days are currently looking like comfortably beating the record. These are based on estimates only and so the actual figures could end up being quite different.
The CET currently stands at 9.01C by my calculations and has lost 1C in just 4 days. It has been quite cool really relatively speaking but even yesterday which was the coldest day of the month was still 0.9C above average!
The CET looks like stabilising tomorrow before rising again from Wednesday potentially reaching 9.9C by Sunday before stabilising again.
It would take a remarkable sudden pattern shift for us not to break the December CET record. It is looking increasingly likely that the record could be broken by more than 1C which would be truly remarkable.
December 2010 was 5.3C below the 1981-2000 mean. This year could be close to 5C above the mean.
Edited by user
14 December 2015 22:25:32
|
Reason: Not specified