This month provides a very good example of why it is extremely dangerous to base your CET prediction on the expected weather in the first few days of the month.

Absolutely agree.  I went for 16.5c this month but I put in my prediction very early due to being on holiday and before I went away there was no sign of a heat wave, so I went around average.  I think if I'd been here at the end of June when the heat was being turned up, I'd have gone much higher.

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Of the UK Mean Temperatures 2010-2015  the highest so far is 2013 being 17.0c.

 

The MEAN for AUGUST    2010 = 14.2c.    2011= 14.1c.     2012 =15.3c.     2013= 15.6c.    2014 =13.9c. 

 

Figures from   metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets

 

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Met Office Hadley         17.0c.     Anomaly        1.1c.     Provisional   to   20th.

Metcheck                     17.26c.   Anomaly        0.86c.  

Netweather                  17.72c.   Anomaly        1.22c.

Clevedon Weather        17.8c.    Anomaly         1.5c.

Mount    Sorrel             17.5c.    Anomaly         1.0c.

My     Mean                  17.9c.    Anomaly         1.5c.

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14.8C (-0.2C) here.
I'm wondering if we'll have another day over 25C this year now (2 so far, 30/6 and 1/7)

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Met Office Hadley       17.0c.        Anomaly       1.1c.     Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                   17.29c       Anomaly       0.82.

Netweather                17.74c.      Anomaly       1.25c.

Clevedon  Weather     17.8c.        Anomaly       1.5c.

Mount       Sorrel        17.4c.        Anomaly       1.2c.

My         Mean            18.0c.        Anomaly       1.4c.

            

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Copied across from Quantum's low temperature watch thread

 

That does sound about right. My latest calculations this evening suggest that the CET for the 10 days from 22 Jul to 31 July will come in at 14.20C. This is exactly the same figure as was recorded for the same 10 days in 1965.

There have been several years before 1965 when the CET for the last 10 days of July was only slightly above 14.2C. But to find a year where the last 10 days of July were lower than 14.2C you have to go back to 1902 when the figure was 13.99C. So we could see the coldest last 10 days of July since 1902.

Looking further back the coldest last 10 days of July since 1772 was 12.95C in 1845.

The CET return today was not too bad at 15.97C. If we just look at the last 9 days of July 2015 could see a CET mean of just 14.00C.

My calculations suggest the CET has fallen below 17C today and is now likely to finish at just 16.1C.

 

Met Office Hadley         17.0c.       Anomaly      1.0c.    Provisional    to 22nd.

Metcheck                        17.7c.       Anomaly        0.71c.

Netweather                     17.67c.     Anomaly        1.18c.

Clevedon   Weather         17.7c.       Anomaly        1.6c.

Mount     Sorrel               17.4c.       Anomaly        1.2c.

My    Mean                      17.9c.      Anomaly         0.9c.

     

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That does sound about right. My latest calculations this evening suggest that the CET for the 10 days from 22 Jul to 31 July will come in at 14.20C. This is exactly the same figure as was recorded for the same 10 days in 1965.

There have been several years before 1965 when the CET for the last 10 days of July was only slightly above 14.2C. But to find a year where the last 10 days of July were lower than 14.2C you have to go back to 1902 when the figure was 13.99C. So we could see the coldest last 10 days of July since 1902.

Looking further back the coldest last 10 days of July since 1772 was 12.95C in 1845.

The CET return today was not too bad at 15.97C. If we just look at the last 9 days of July 2015 could see a CET mean of just 14.00C.

My calculations suggest the CET has fallen below 17C today and is now likely to finish at just 16.1C. 

    That would even put my very low 16.5c guess too high!

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Sweating on 16.14.......

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14.5C(-0.5C) here now.

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I guess that wraps it up for 2015 then... there's no way the models can redeem themselves now, with my experiment conclusion being that they are useless 6 times out of 7 

'Predictions' from this point forward will be largely guesswork. Lets see if that fares any better!

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I guess that wraps it up for 2015 then... there's no way the models can redeem themselves now, with my experiment conclusion being that they are useless 6 times out of 7 

'Predictions' from this point forward will be largely guesswork. Lets see if that fares any better!

They are a good example of the difference between precision and accuracy IMO - the long range models being strong on the first only

Have you tried looking at the 6 week CFS every day - it does complete U-turns on a regular basis and only goes to prove that numerical modelling is worth pretty much Jack after about 7 days

 

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Met Office Hadley         16.9.        Anomaly       0.9c.    Provisional  to 23rd.

Metcheck                        17.09c.       Anomaly        0.63c.

Netweather                     17.09c.       Anomaly        1.08c.

Clevedon Weather            17.7c.        Anomaly         1.06c.

Mount Sorrel                    17.3c.        Anomaly         0.8c.

My Mean                          17.8c.        Anomaly         1.6c.

     

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Met Office Hadley         16.0c.        Anomaly       0.9c.    Provisional  to 23rd.

Metcheck                        17.09c.       Anomaly        0.63c.

Netweather                     17.09c.       Anomaly        1.08c.

Clevedon Weather            17.7c.        Anomaly         1.06c.

Mount Sorrel                    17.3c.        Anomaly         0.8c.

My Mean                          17.8c.        Anomaly         1.6c.

     

I think you mean 16.9

Although I would quite like 16.0 for the comp

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I think you mean 16.9

Although I would quite like 16.0 for the comp

   Edit Applied....

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Bugger, missed this! I am too late I think? If not can I have 16c please.......happy to take huge penalty.

Double bugger! Looks like my 16c guess could be very close. Serves me right for being late with my prediction; penalty will mean I end up miles out.

 

Oh well, always next month.⚡️☔️🔜

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Double bugger! Looks like my 16c guess could be very close. Serves me right for being late with my prediction; penalty will mean I end up miles out.

 

Oh well, always next month.⚡️☔️🔜

yes looks like it could be very close. 16.05C is my latest estimate.

You could have moved a long way up the table but the penalty will be painful as Caz knows only too well from earlier in the year.

Latest calculations suggest the CET will finish at 16.01C. It keeps going down.

The mean CET for the final 10 days of the month is now forecast by my calculations to be just 13.91C. The CET for the final 9 days of the month could be as low as 13.68C.

This would put 2015 in 10th place in the list of the coldest last 9 days of July since records began in 1772.

1812  13.12C
1841  13.19C
1845  13.22C
1816  13.24C
1920  13.31C
1883  13.55C
1860  13.59C
1914  13.62C
1867  13.66C
2015  13.68C EST
1843  13.69C

Met Office Hadley       16.7c.       Anomaly      0.7c.    Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                   16.90c.     Anomaly      0.44c.

Netweather                17.4c.       Anomaly      0.91c.

Clevedon Weather       17.5c.      Anomaly      1.8c.

Mount  Sorrel              17.1c.      Anomaly      0.6c.

My Mean                     17.6c       Anomaly      1.8c.

 

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yes looks like it could be very close. 16.05C is my latest estimate.

You could have moved a long way up the table but the penalty will be painful as Caz knows only too well from earlier in the year.

Yes indeed that happened to me.  I was top of the table in January and would have stayed there with my excellent February guess if I hadn't gone on holiday and missed the deadline.  Ouch!     I did had a lovely Caribbean holiday though! 

Actually, my holidays do affect my positioning because I was away for the July deadline so I put my guess in early when the weather wasn't too promising.  If I'd guessed at the end of June when the weather was good, I'm sure I'd have gone higher than 16.5c and would have been a lot further out.

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