Met Office Hadley. 16.4c.  Anomaly.  0.3c. 

Are we actually going to finish up ever so slightly below average?

 

Are we actually going to finish up ever so slightly below average?

Would be almost bizarre given how hot it was four weeks ago right at the start of the month! I seem to recall that at that time, there was talk in some quarters about whether this month could rival or even beat July 2006 for heat. Seems a very long time ago now.

Coldest CET return of the month so far today at 12.95C by my calculations which is 4.5C below average.

The CET is expected to be 4.5C below average for the next two days as well.

Final CET still expected to come in at 15.99C.

Were it not for the fact that Deep Powder is taking a big penalty for a late prediction he would be leading the CET competition by a large margin at the end of this month. Despite the penalty he should still climb from 14th to 2nd place. A huge move. There will be lots of other changes in the top 10 this month.

 

Would be almost bizarre given how hot it was four weeks ago right at the start of the month! I seem to recall that at that time, there was talk in some quarters about whether this month could rival or even beat July 2006 for heat. Seems a very long time ago now.

We are going to be well below average - probably about 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean and 0.7C below the 1981-2010 mean.

Coldest CET return of the month so far today at 12.95C by my calculations which is 4.5C below average.

The CET is expected to be 4.5C below average for the next two days as well.

Final CET still expected to come in at 15.99C.

Were it not for the fact that Deep Powder is taking a big penalty for a late prediction he would be leading the CET competition by a large margin at the end of this month. Despite the penalty he should still climb from 14th to 2nd place. A huge move. There will be lots of other changes in the top 10 this month.

Oh dear - I can imagine this. This means I'm out by a full 2C. That I reckon must be my biggest margin I have ever been out.

I knew when I put my figure in we would not keep the heat - but no way could I forsee that July would turn into such a dreadful month this past 2 weeks.

No way.

 

Would be almost bizarre given how hot it was four weeks ago right at the start of the month! I seem to recall that at that time, there was talk in some quarters about whether this month could rival or even beat July 2006 for heat. Seems a very long time ago now.

Met Office Hadley       16.3c.       Anomaly      0.2c.     Provisional to  29th.

Metcheck                   16.38c.     Anomaly     -0.08c.

Netweather                16.89c.     Anomaly      0.4c. 

Clevedon Weather      17.1c.       Anomaly      2.2c.

Mount   Sorrel            16.6c.      Anomaly       0.1c.

My Mean                    17.1c.      Anomaly       2.3c.

My Annual     10.2c.   Difference   4.5c.    

It was only a short spell even in the south, here the real heat (over 25C) only lasted from about 11am to 3pm on the 1st of July!
Dropped to 13.8C this morning here which is -1.1C 

As far as I recall, Glasgow was forecast to reach around 28C/29C on 1st July, and from what was reported at the time we did reach that, for the few hours the sun shone that day. It was extremely humid though; I remember being out for a walk for half an hour that afternoon that the air felt like an oven. It wasn't what I would call a pleasant heat at all.

Thankfully, the thunder we had that night freshened the air up somewhat., and by the end of the following weekend the temperatures here had returned to similar values to what we had for much of June.

 

Oh dear - I can imagine this. This means I'm out by a full 2C. That I reckon must be my biggest margin I have ever been out.

I knew when I put my figure in we would not keep the heat - but no way could I forsee that July would turn into such a dreadful month this past 2 weeks.

No way.

 

Well, you're not alone - I had a right mare as well.

Met Office Hadley         16.2c.      Anomaly        0.1c.    Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                     16.25c.    Anomaly        0.22c.

Netweather                  16.77c     Anomaly        0.28c.

Clevedon Weather         17.0c.     Anomaly        2.3c.

Mount Sorrel                 16.3c.    Anomaly         0.0c.

My   Mean                     17.0c.    Anomaly         2.4c.

My final CET estimate for July is 16.01C. Coldest day of the month was today with 12.63C

Since and including December last year, every month has been at least 1.0C cooler than its predecessor.

That's 8 months on the trot, that is some stats quirk. The odds are against happening for August........

You know, I'm getting that 2010 feeling... its just that things have got into motion quite some way into the year this time. Whether we get a grand finale in winter is another matter 

Final official July CET from Hadley is 15.91C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

So everyone was too high in the CET competition although lanky was the closest with 16.00C (along with Deep Powder although he gets less credit as his prediction was posted late after the initial heatwave started to abate).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The official maximum CET on 1 July was 32.7C. This is the third highest reading for any day in July since records began in 1878. The top 3 are well above any other July day.

31 July was the 5th lowest minimum CET on record for July.

What a contrast to start and finish the month. I doubt that has ever happened before.

Highest maximum CET in July

3 July 1976     33.2C
19 July 2006   32.9C
1 July 2015     32.7C
2 July 1976     31.8C

Lowest minimum CET in July

4 July 1965      4.7C
11 July 1888    5.1C
12 July 1902    5.1C
8 July 1929      5.2C
31 July 2015    5.4C
7 July 1954      5.5C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

That is the link to the estimated data and only goes to the 30th. The final figure in the estimated data series is 16.07C and can be found here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015

The link I posted is to the final official data. There was a downward adjustment of 0.16C from 16.07C to 15.91C.

The official maximum CET on 1 July was 32.7C. This is the third highest reading for any day in July since records began in 1878. The top 3 are well above any other July day.

31 July was the 5th lowest minimum CET on record for July.

What a contrast to start and finish the month. I doubt that has ever happened before.

Highest maximum CET in July

3 July 1976     33.2C
19 July 2006   32.9C
1 July 2015     32.7C
2 July 1976     31.8C

Lowest minimum CET in July

4 July 1965      4.7C
11 July 1888    5.1C
12 July 1902    5.1C
8 July 1929      5.2C
31 July 2015    5.4C
7 July 1954      5.5C

And I'll just add this - those figures there for the lowest CET minimums - some of those summers were downright dire.

The July CET for 1965 was 14.0C  The warmest summer month for the summer of 1965 was August with a CET of 14.9C

July CET for 1954 was 14.2C and the warmest summer month was August with a CET of just 14.6C.

We have not had much luck with mean temperatures generally in July and August in the past 10 years. Apart from July 2013 and 2014 the rest have been either close to average or poor.

6 of the last 9 July's have been below the 1971-2000 average of 16.5C with CETs of 16.2C or less.

6 of the last 9 August's have been below the 1971-2000 average of 16.2C. No August has reached 17C since 2004.

 

And I'll just add this - those figures there for the lowest CET minimums - some of those summers were downright dire.

The July CET for 1965 was 14.0C  The warmest summer month for the summer of 1965 was August with a CET of 14.9C

July CET for 1954 was 14.2C and the warmest summer month was August with a CET of just 14.6C.

 

 

Good point - they were all shockers. All below 15C

1965 summer CET 14.5C
1888 summer CET 13.7C
1902 summer CET 14.3C
1929 summer CET 14.9C
1954 summer CET 14.1C

1971-2000 summer CET 15.6C

Hopefully this year we will just about get above 15C but not by much.