GW's charts above suggest there is a chance that this winter could come in slightly below average, and we still might not get a single flake of snow down in the south. I didn't even really think that was possible! An average winter or below average winter I thought would deliver snow in some form at some point.

It certainly seems my CET forecast for January is not going to help me retain my title. 

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GW's charts above suggest there is a chance that this winter could come in slightly below average, and we still might not get a single flake of snow down in the south. I didn't even really think that was possible! An average winter or below average winter I thought would deliver snow in some form at some point.

It certainly seems my CET forecast for January is not going to help me retain my title. 

Have you not had any snow at all Darren? I got about 5 minutes of moderate snowfall on Saturday 17th.

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Have you not had any snow at all Darren? I got about 5 minutes of moderate snowfall on Saturday 17th.

Nothing in Alton apart from a few flakes at the start of the last cold spell and some tenuous light sleet a couple of days later. Desperate times

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.     Anomaly    1.1c.     Provisional    to   27th.

Metcheck                  4.67c     Anomaly   0.51c.

N-W                          5.16c.    Anomaly   0.97c.

Mount     Sorrel         4.8c.     Anomaly    0.6c. 

My    Mean                5.1c.     Anomaly   -0.6c.  

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Have you not had any snow at all Darren? I got about 5 minutes of moderate snowfall on Saturday 17th.

No, it rained here. I think you had the heavier bit of the shower, and you have a little bit more elevation. The temperature always seems to be a degree colder in Yateley when I collect my daughters from their childminder there.

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Met Office Hadley      4.9c.     Anomaly      1.1c.     Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                      4.60c.    Anomaly       0.45c.

N-W                             5.17c.    Anomaly       0.98c.

Mount Sorrel                 4.7c.      Anomaly       0.5c.

My   Mean                     5.1c.      Anomaly      -0.6c....    

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Met Office Hadley      4.8c.       Anomaly      1.0c.    Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                      4.48c.     Anomaly       0.33c.

N-W                              5.07c.     Anomaly       0.88c.

Mount  Sorrel                 4.6c.      Anomaly       0.4c.

My    Mean                     5.0c.      Anomaly      -0.7c. 

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Met Office Hadley      4.8c.     Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                   4.41c.   Anomaly     0.25c.

N-W                           4.99c.   Anomaly     0.8c.

Mount     Sorrel             4.5c.     Anomaly     0.3c.

My   Mean                     5.0c.     Anomaly    -0.7c.      

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My final CET estimate for January is 4.40C which is 0.2C above the 1971-2000 mean and exactly in line with the 1981-2010 mean

Well I was fairly close as the final Hadley CET for January is 4.41C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

Congratulations to Caz and Duncan McAlister who correctly predicted 4.4C.

Here are the charts for January. A very average month overall but with some significant warm and cold periods. Overall minimum temperatures were slightly below average whereas maximums were quite a bit above average.

The first half of January was much warmer than the second half. Here are the stats:

1-16 Jan 5.97C (+1.65C)

17-31 Jan 2.72C (-1.37C)

Looking at the winter CET we are still just above average although that will change during the first week of February. I have included the CET for last winter for comparison and also the data for 1983/4 which is the closest match in recent times to this winter.

February 1984 was chilly although not exceptionally cold. March 1984 had the largest negative anomaly of that winter / early spring period. My view has consistently been that the second half of this winter would be the coldest part of winter and that there is a significant chance of a very chilly start to Spring. I still think that is the most likely scenario at this point.

Just a roundup of monthly figures for interest.

 

Met Office Hadley    4.41c

Metcheck                4.15c.

N-W                       4.92c.

Mount Sorrel           4.53c.

My Mean                 4.9c. 

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Quite a downwards revision there - unfortunately.

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Here is the first update for the 2015 CET competition. Early days but I think this is the first time we have seen Caz and Duncan McAlister at the top of the table.

Thanks GW.

GW
I find all your graphs over the page quite fascinating.
Thanks for all your efforts (including the Annual CET comp).

So - inspite of the Dec being mild, and the Jan only about average( taking the 81-10 Figures), we still end up with a below average figure for the winter this week!! I find that a bit strange as I had become used to the mildies telling us what a crap winter it has been.
When really it has been very average and has some chances of ending up quite cold if some of the current charts verify.

An impressive number within 0.5*C of the final figure, nicely done guys 

Caz, you have achieved in the CET Competition what you kept coming within a whisker of in the Prediction Game, against a vastly greater number of participants, on which I am pleased to congratulate you! 

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Caz will be pleased to see the result when back from her holiday....

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Thank you for your excellent charts GW....

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Thanks for the charts GW.

Congratulations to Caz and Duncan, a great start to the year.

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