Surprised that the late Feb/early Mar 2006 cold spell didn't meet the criteria

 

PS - I don't think the CET is going to get anywhere near as low as 4.2c this month now. However, it just goes to show how potent a cold spell the models were forecasting just a few days ago...

Indeed. My current estimate has the CET finishing at 4.64C.

Today the CET came in at just 0.3C

Tomorrow should see the first negative CET since 11 March 2013.

Wednesday to Friday still very cold. Less cold for the weekend but temperatures still slightly below average. We only go above average on Monday according to the latest output.

Latest CET mean estimate for the 7 days from the 17th to the 23rd is 0.94C

Met Office Hadley     5.4c.    Anomaly   2.0c.   Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                 5.05c.  Anomaly   0.89c.

N-W                        5.79c.  Anomaly   1.96c.

Mount Sorrel            5.2c.   Anomaly    1.00c.

My Mean                  5.8c.   Anomaly    0.1c.        

Here is a list of all consecutive 9 day CET means since 2000 with an overall average temperature below 1C. Where a cold spell exceeded 9 days I have only included the coldest 9 day period in the list below. Will be interesting to see where the current cold spell ends up in this list. Currently estimated in 12th place.

There were no cold spells meeting the criteria between February 2003 and November 2008, nearly a six year period. It has been two years since the last lengthy spell of significant cold in January 2013.

Phew - that December 2010 was in a class of its own. Incredible.

 

Coldest 9 day period in Feb / Mar 2006 was 1.54C

Close but no cigar!!

(actually, not too bad for a late Feb/early Mar spell - I see that the Mar 13 spell doesn't make the list, either. The higher solar strength hoisting daytime temps up when the skies clear, presumably)

Met Office Hadley    5.2c.    Anomaly    1.7c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                4.88c.  Anomaly    0.73c.

N-W                       5.53c.  Anomaly    1.34c.

Mount Sorrel           5.0c.    Anomaly    0.8c.

My Mean                 5.6c.    Anomaly  -0.1c.  

Met Office Hadley     5.0c.      Anomaly     1.4c.   Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                 4.72c      Anomaly     0.56c.

N-W                        5.39c.     Anomaly     1.2c.

Mount  Sorrel           4.9c.      Anomaly      0.7c.

My   Mean                5.4c.      Anomaly     -0.3c.   

Met Office Hadley      4.9c.    Anomaly    1.3c.  Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                   4.52c.  Anomaly    0.37c 

N-W                           5.2c.    Anomaly    1.01c.

Mount Sorrel             4.6c.    Anomaly   0.4c.

My Mean                   5.3c.    Anomaly  -0.4c.         

Looking at a high 4's low 5's finish?

Might be a better start to 2015 for me anyway.

Yes Gavin. My latest calculations suggest a figure of 4.8C.

This weekend should see temperatures close to average. Next week looks relatively mild. It may turn rather cool again next weekend.

The CET mean for the past 7 days including today has been 0.9C which is 3.3C below the 1971-2000 mean for these 7 days of 4.2C. So a genuine cold spell for the CET area at least.

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.    Anomaly      1.2c.    Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                 4.49c.   Anomaly      0.34c.

N-W                        5.05c.   Anomaly      0.86c.

Mount Sorrel            4.6c.     Anomaly      0.4c.

My  Mean                 5.1c.     Anomaly     -0.6c.     

No lower! That's far enough!

Metcheck at the moment 4.49c.   Anomaly  0.33cc.

N-W     5.05c.   Anomaly   0.86c.  

Mount Sorrel   4.6c.  Anomaly  0.4c.  

In terms of temperatures I don't see the next cold spell that is coming up later this week being much different to the last one, at least as far as the Central England Temperature is concerned.

My estimate of the CET mean for the 7 days from 17-23 Jan is 0.97C

My current estimate of the CET mean for the 8 days from 29 Jan to 5 Feb is 0.85C.

So very little difference at this stage.

Due to the expected colder conditions now at the end of the week my January CET mean estimate has now fallen back to 4.4C, still slightly above the 1971-2000 mean.

Worth noting that the provisional Hadley CET for 23 Jan at 3.3C is woefully inaccurate. My calculation indicates 1.4C. It certainly should be well below 2C. So expect a reasonably significant downwards adjustment to the CET at the end of this month from Hadley as there have been a few other days where the reported CET is way too high.

Currently for the winter as a whole the CET is above average. However, the next cold spell should result in the CET moving to just below average by 7 February. Current estimate is 4.50C at 7 Feb. Compare that to the same period last year when we were running at 5.98C. So we will be 1.5C below last winter with 3 weeks of the winter left.

Met Office Hadley    4.7c.    Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to  24th.

Metcheck                 4.44c.  Anomaly     0.29c.

N-W                       5.02c.  Anomaly     0.83c.

Mount  Sorrel          4.5c.   Anomaly      0.3c.

My   Mean               5.1c.   Anomaly     -0.6c. 

In terms of temperatures I don't see the next cold spell that is coming up later this week being much different to the last one, at least as far as the Central England Temperature is concerned.

My estimate of the CET mean for the 7 days from 17-23 Jan is 0.97C

My current estimate of the CET mean for the 8 days from 29 Jan to 5 Feb is 0.85C.

So very little difference at this stage.

 

Due to the expected colder conditions now at the end of the week my January CET mean estimate has now fallen back to 4.4C, still slightly above the 1971-2000 mean.

Worth noting that the provisional Hadley CET for 23 Jan at 3.3C is woefully inaccurate. My calculation indicates 1.4C. It certainly should be well below 2C. So expect a reasonably significant downwards adjustment to the CET at the end of this month from Hadley as there have been a few other days where the reported CET is way too high.

 

Currently for the winter as a whole the CET is above average. However, the next cold spell should result in the CET moving to just below average by 7 February. Current estimate is 4.50C at 7 Feb. Compare that to the same period last year when we were running at 5.98C. So we will be 1.5C below last winter with 3 weeks of the winter left.

Very interesting GWarming.

It looks as if it is going Cohen's way at the moment, with a heavily back-loaded winter . However we will see.

WRT the January  CET points -

I thought it was strange on that evening (23/1) when the midlands news and weather were saying that  that it was very cold in the Midlands overnight.

They showed the minimum for the midlands as -4.9C at Pershore. I thought this was strange as I had recorded -5.3C and many other places in the Midlands  reported their own minima of less than mine.

I looked on  weather online at 09:00 in the morning and it showed Pershore as -7.1C and Hereford as  -6.4C, still at 08:45. Hence my surprise that BBC Midlands had put out numbers as high as -4.9C as the minimum in the evening

I see that Stoneyhurst (aka Woburn) had also gone down to a similar -7.0C. So yes there have been two major overrecordings of minima this month and I also have seen a couple of minor increases. Against this there was one day when they went lower than my expected calculations during a warmer period.

So, yes I expect to see a revision down of about 0.2 to 0.3C this month.  

Met Office Hadley         4.7c.     Anomaly    1.0c.    Provisional to    25th.

Metcheck                       4.56c.   Anomaly    0.41c.

N-W                              5.04c.    Anomaly   0.85c.

Mount  Sorrel                 4.7c.      Anomaly   0.5c.

My   Mean                      5.1c.      Anomaly  -0.6c.

In terms of temperatures I don't see the next cold spell that is coming up later this week being much different to the last one, at least as far as the Central England Temperature is concerned.

My estimate of the CET mean for the 7 days from 17-23 Jan is 0.97C

My current estimate of the CET mean for the 8 days from 29 Jan to 5 Feb is 0.85C.

So very little difference at this stage.

 

Due to the expected colder conditions now at the end of the week my January CET mean estimate has now fallen back to 4.4C, still slightly above the 1971-2000 mean.

Worth noting that the provisional Hadley CET for 23 Jan at 3.3C is woefully inaccurate. My calculation indicates 1.4C. It certainly should be well below 2C. So expect a reasonably significant downwards adjustment to the CET at the end of this month from Hadley as there have been a few other days where the reported CET is way too high.

 

Currently for the winter as a whole the CET is above average. However, the next cold spell should result in the CET moving to just below average by 7 February. Current estimate is 4.50C at 7 Feb. Compare that to the same period last year when we were running at 5.98C. So we will be 1.5C below last winter with 3 weeks of the winter left.

Thanks GW.

Fairly pleased with how my winter forecast is progressing - May well go for a slightly colder than average CET for February.

Here

1.40c

Min -1.58c

Max 4.39c

Met  Office Hadley     4.8c.      Anomaly      1.0c.   Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                   4.59c      Anomaly      0.43c.

N-W                         5.13c.     Anomaly      0.94c.

Mount    Sorrel          4.7c.      Anomaly      0.5c.

My    Mean                5.1        Anomaly     -0.6c.