Staying relatively mild over the next few days but then temperatures look like being close to or a little below average from the 16th.

Even so we should still be a little over 1C above the long run mean by the 24th. So looking like another month that will be significantly warmer than average after a December that was very close to average.

Met  Office Hadley       6.6c.    Anomaly      3.12c.    Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                   6.37c    Anomaly      2.22c.

N-W                          7.12c.   Anomaly      2.93c.

Mount    Sorrel           6.6c      Anomaly      2.4c.

My    Mean                7.4c.      Anomaly      1.7c.

Met Office Hadley      6.6c.       Anomaly     3.0c.     provisional  to 11th.

Metcheck                  6.51c.     Anomaly     2.35c.

N-W                         7.04c.     Anomaly     2.85c.

Mount Sorrel             6.7c.       Anomaly     2.5c.

My   Mean                 7.2c.       Anomaly     1.5c.

Would be interesting for another projection from GW. Think this may take quite a tumble over the next week to ten day's?

Met Office Hadley 6.7c.    Anomaly  3.2c.   Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck             6.54c.  Anomaly  2.39c.

N-W                    7.19c   Anomaly  3.0c.

Mount Sorrel        6.7c.    Anomaly  2.5c.

My    Mean          7.4c.     Anomaly  1.7c.

I now finally have some data for Rothamsted for January which has enabled me to update my calculations. The actual data is somewhat lower than the figures I was using for Woburn so the mean has fallen a bit.

The cool weather forecast in the coming days will push the CET down towards average. By 27 January I am currently expecting the CET to be at 4.52C so still about a quarter of a degree above the long run mean for 1971-2000 and close to the 1981-2010 mean. I suspect we will end the month close to average with a warm first half and a cool second half cancelling each other out.

Met Office Hadley   6.6c.   Anomaly   3.0c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck               6.21c  Anomaly   2.06c.

N-W                      7.02c. Anomaly   2.83c.

Mount   Sorrel        6.4c.  Anomaly    2.2c.

My   Mean              7.2c.  Anomaly    1.5c.

How much the CET falls next week will depend on whether get a widespread snow cover with a run of clear night's. If we do, then a run of minimums with minus double digits is feasible and that can absolutely hammer the CET...

Met Office Hadley   6.5c.      Anomaly   3.0c. provisional to 14th.

Metcheck               6.21.      Anomaly   2.06c.

N-W                       6.82c.    Anomaly    2.63c.

Mount Sorrel          6.4c.      Anomaly    2.2c.

My Mean                7.0c.      Anomaly    1.3c.              

Met Office Hadley    6.3c.     Anomaly    2.8c.    Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                6.10c.   Anomaly    1.95c.

N-W                       6.79c.   Anomaly    2.6c.

Mount Sorrel           6.3c.    Anomaly     2.1c.

My Mean                 6.8c.    Anomaly     1.1c.

How much the CET falls next week will depend on whether get a widespread snow cover with a run of clear night's.

The former is looking far less likely today than it was when you posted this, Gavin

Met Office Hadley   6.2c.    Anomaly    2.7c.  Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck               5.81c   Anomaly    1.66c.

N-W                      6.55c   Anomaly     2.36c.

Mount  Sorrel         6.0c    Anomaly      1.8c.

My   Mean              6.6c.   Anomaly      0.9c.

After 11 consecutive days above average today marks the first day of what is likely to be a period of at least 9 consecutive below average days.

The CET mean for the 9 days starting today is currently forecast to be 0.76C by my calculations. That is a genuine cold spell and is the coldest 9 day period since January 2013.

Monday will be the coldest day due to some very low overnight minimums on Sunday night.

Temperatures may return to average for the final 6 days of the month but nothing warm on the horizon at the moment.

Overall the CET mean is currently expected to finish exactly in line with the 1971-2000 mean of 4.2C.

4.2C sounds excellent to me

My instinct at the start of the month was that January would be a re-run of December ie up and down spells turning out about average. Looking good so far....

February?

Cold I reckon. Not had a really cold February since 1991 so long overdue.

Here is a list of all consecutive 9 day CET means since 2000 with an overall average temperature below 1C. Where a cold spell exceeded 9 days I have only included the coldest 9 day period in the list below. Will be interesting to see where the current cold spell ends up in this list. Currently estimated in 12th place.

There were no cold spells meeting the criteria between February 2003 and November 2008, nearly a six year period. It has been two years since the last lengthy spell of significant cold in January 2013.

Met Office Hadley    6.0c.    Anomaly   2.5c.     Provisional to  17th.

Metcheck                5.58c.   Anomaly   1.43c.

N-W                       6.32c.   Anomaly    2.13c.

Mount  Sorrel           5.7c.    Anomaly   1.5c. 

My Mean                 6.3c.     Anomaly   0.6c. 

Met office Hadley     5.7c.     Anomaly     2.2c.    Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                5.32c,    Anomaly     1.17c.

N-W                       6.08c.    Anomaly     1.89c.

Mount Sorrel           5.5c.     Anomaly      1.3c.

My Mean                 6.1c.     Anomaly      0.4c.

There were no cold spells meeting the criteria between February 2003 and November 2008, nearly a six year period.

Surprised that the late Feb/early Mar 2006 cold spell didn't meet the criteria

PS - I don't think the CET is going to get anywhere near as low as 4.2c this month now. However, it just goes to show how potent a cold spell the models were forecasting just a few days ago...

 

 

Surprised that the late Feb/early Mar 2006 cold spell didn't meet the criteria

 

PS - I don't think the CET is going to get anywhere near as low as 4.2c this month now. However, it just goes to show how potent a cold spell the models were forecasting just a few days ago...

Coldest 9 day period in Feb / Mar 2006 was 1.54C

Now we have passed the half way point of this winter we can assess the CET so far compared to both last year and the 1971-2000 mean

2013/4  1 Dec to 14 Jan 6.72C (1971-2000 4.83C +1.89C)

2014/5  1 Dec to 14 Jan 5.56C (1971-2000 4.83C +0.73C)

So the first half of winter this year has still been a fair bit above average but nearly 1.2C cooler than the same time last year. 

The figure for the second half of winter last year was as follows:

2013/4  15 Jan to 28 Feb 5.86C (1971-2000 4.18C +1.68C)