Still looking very chilly indeed this week. The current output suggests the daily CET means will return to average from Bank Holiday Monday onwards mainly due to much higher overnight minimums. Daytime highs will still be a little disappointing.

Provided things do return to average next week the CET may just hold above 15C. I am currently expecting a finishing figure of 15.08C which is broadly where it has been for the last few days.

Today's CET return of 12.2C is the coldest since 4 June. Tomorrow looks like being the coldest day of the week with a predicted CET of just 11.3C. That would be the coldest since 26 May which was also 11.3C. You have to go back to 14 May to find a colder CET at 11.2C.

Still looking very chilly indeed this week. The current output suggests the daily CET means will return to average from Bank Holiday Monday onwards mainly due to much higher overnight minimums. Daytime highs will still be a little disappointing.

Provided things do return to average next week the CET may just hold above 15C. I am currently expecting a finishing figure of 15.08C which is broadly where it has been for the last few days.

Today's CET return of 12.2C is the coldest since 4 June. Tomorrow looks like being the coldest day of the week with a predicted CET of just 11.3C. That would be the coldest since 26 May which was also 11.3C. You have to go back to 14 May to find a colder CET at 11.2C.

And just out of interest how does these figures compare with other cool spells in summer a CET of 11.3 in August must be the lowest daily CET in August since 1993.

 

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It is not that low actually Gavin. We had a CET of 10.9C as recently as 31 August 2012.

First grass frost for some this morning. Even as far south as Bournemouth Hurn the temperature fell to 3.3C with a grass minimum of -1C.

In the CET area Pershore got down to 3.9C with a grass minimum of -2C.

It was certainly chilly standing on the platform waiting for my train at 0630 this morning. Definitely very autumnal.

Will be very frustrating if we finish up at 15.0. If we're going to have to have a cold summer month, we might as well get into the 14's, LOL.

A bit like September 2012 when we just missed getting into the 12's and finished at 13.0.

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Late today. Been to Ubley...

 

Met Office Hadley      15.9c.     Anomaly     -0.0c.

Metcheck                  15.84c.   Anomaly     -0.38c.

N-W                         16.39c.   Anomaly      0.2c.

Mount  Sorrel            16.08c.   Anomaly     -0.12c.

My  Mean                  16.0c.    Anomaly      -1.5c.             

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Looks a dead cert to be the 1st below average month since last November.

This summer is turning out to be very similar to the summer of 2010

Looks a dead cert to be the 1st below average month since last November.

This summer is turning out to be very similar to the summer of 2010

It's really interesting because when I was doing the summer updates through the spring (both the actual summer updates and the CFS six month look aheads) there was always this idea that the seasonal models were playing with for a "front-loaded" summer with August always being the month that had big questions to answer.

That was especially for March and April, but by May most of the models lost the signal, but the way this summer has played out was always a possibility for sure.

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The predicted CET for today of 11.3C was almost spot on. My calculations suggest the CET outturn today was 11.23C.

Prediction for tomorrow is something around 11.3C again. But it could be lower depending on how low the minimums get tonight. It could even drop below 11C. 

The coldest August CET for a single day in recent times was 10.9C on 31 August 2012 as noted in my earlier post today. Even 1993 did not get that cold with a low of 11.2C on the 23rd which equals today's figure.

Prior to that last day of August 2012 you have to go back to 1978 to find another August day with a mean below 11C. 31 August 1978 saw a CET of 10.4C.

Since 1772 there have only been 73 days in August where the CET was less than 11C of which 21 have occurred since 1900.

The 2014 August CET by my calculations now stands at 15.54C.

 

The predicted CET for today of 11.3C was almost spot on. My calculations suggest the CET outturn today was 11.23C.

Prediction for tomorrow is something around 11.3C again. But it could be lower depending on how low the minimums get tonight. It could even drop below 11C. 

The coldest August CET for a single day in recent times was 10.9C on 31 August 2012 as noted in my earlier post today. Even 1993 did not get that cold with a low of 11.2C on the 23rd which equals today's figure.

Prior to that last day of August 2012 you have to go back to 1978 to find another August day with a mean below 11C. 31 August 1978 saw a CET of 10.4C.

Since 1772 there have only been 73 days in August where the CET was less than 11C of which 21 have occurred since 1900.

The 2014 August CET by my calculations now stands at 15.54C.

 

 

That's an amazing stat. Let's send it to the Daily Wail. It doesn't quite fit the global warming theory....

The predicted CET for today of 11.3C was almost spot on. My calculations suggest the CET outturn today was 11.23C.

Prediction for tomorrow is something around 11.3C again. But it could be lower depending on how low the minimums get tonight. It could even drop below 11C. 

The coldest August CET for a single day in recent times was 10.9C on 31 August 2012 as noted in my earlier post today. Even 1993 did not get that cold with a low of 11.2C on the 23rd which equals today's figure.

Prior to that last day of August 2012 you have to go back to 1978 to find another August day with a mean below 11C. 31 August 1978 saw a CET of 10.4C.

Since 1772 there have only been 73 days in August where the CET was less than 11C of which 21 have occurred since 1900.

The 2014 August CET by my calculations now stands at 15.54C.

 

Brilliant set of stats there. I bet the August of 1912 saw probably the lowest 24 hour August CET day on record - But curiously enough I maybe wrong there.

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IMBY 11.87c

Min 7.58c

Max 16.15c

 

Poor to say the least!

Met  Office Hadley       15.7c.      Anomaly       -0.2c.

Metcheck                    15.66c     Anomaly       -0.56c.

N-W                           16.18c.    Anomaly       -0.33c.

Mount  Sorrel              15.91c.    Anomaly       -0.28c.

My  Mean                    15.9c       Anomaly       -1.6c.

       

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CET today was as expected virtually identical to yesterday coming in at 11.20C by my calculations.

The running mean for the month is down 0.21C to 15.33C today.

A warmer day tomorrow as the minimums will be several degrees higher tonight. But Saturday and Sunday look distinctly cool again before much higher minimums kick in again from Monday onwards.

13.6C here now, which is -0.8C

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Hey GW, any updates on where we're expecting August to finish?

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Recon on 15.4c - 15.6c. seems a good number to go on....

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Met Office Hadley         15.6c.      Anomaly       - 0.4c.     Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      15.57c.    Anomaly        -0.66c.

N-W                             16.01c.    Anomaly        -0.19c.

Mount Sorrel                 15.82c.    Anomaly       -0.38c.

My mean                       16.2c.     Anomaly       -1.07c.

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Hey GW, any updates on where we're expecting August to finish?

Yes and we are now looking at sub 15C. Latest estimate from me is 14.86C.

This is quite remarkable when you consider that after the first 8 days of the month the CET was 0.5C above average. We are now looking at finishing 1.36C below average.

The CET mean from the 11th to the 31st is expected to be just 13.85C.

The only year in recent times that has seen a colder final two-thirds of the month was 1986 with 13.28C. Prior to that 1963 was also colder than 2014 for the same period.

Just out of interest I see that September 1986 was particularly cold and in 1963 September was also below average. October and November were above average in both years. 

Hey GW, any updates on where we're expecting August to finish?

Yes and we are now looking at sub 15C. Latest estimate from me is 14.86C.

This is quite remarkable when you consider that after the first 8 days of the month the CET was 0.5C above average. We are now looking at finishing 1.36C below average.

The CET mean from the 11th to the 31st is expected to be just 13.85C.

The only year in recent times that has seen a colder final two-thirds of the month was 1986 with 13.28C. Prior to that 1963 was also colder than 2014 for the same period.

Just out of interest I see that September 1986 was particularly cold and in 1963 September was also below average. October and November were above average in both years. 

Thanks for those amazing stats there.

Phew

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Hey GW, any updates on where we're expecting August to finish?

Yes and we are now looking at sub 15C. Latest estimate from me is 14.86C.

This is quite remarkable when you consider that after the first 8 days of the month the CET was 0.5C above average. We are now looking at finishing 1.36C below average.

The CET mean from the 11th to the 31st is expected to be just 13.85C.

The only year in recent times that has seen a colder final two-thirds of the month was 1986 with 13.28C. Prior to that 1963 was also colder than 2014 for the same period.

Just out of interest I see that September 1986 was particularly cold and in 1963 September was also below average. October and November were above average in both years. 

Thanks GW.:)  Is it OK if I use this on my blog tomorrow?

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