Yet another significantly above average month in July. All 7 months this year have now been more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. Once the official figures are out for July it will be the warmest first seven months of the year since records began in 1659 by quite some margin. Here are the warmest Jan-Jul periods on record.
2014 10.74C (prov.)
1846 10.55C
2007 10.52C
1990 10.50C
1733 10.50C
1868 10.43C
Can August continue this remarkable trend? Well it looks like the first week of the month will be around average temperature wise. But bear in mind that the first half of July only saw average temperatures but then we had a heatwave in for the next two weeks.
Please post your August CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Thursday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 August.
August historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
We have not had a really warm August for a long time. Last year the CET did finish more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean but just by much. The last above 17C August was in 2004 and the last above 18C August was 2003. So we are due a warm August. 1995 of course set the benchmark in recent times with 19.2C. 2007, 2010 and 2011 all saw a CET of 15.3C to 15.4C which was very poor.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.2C
1981-2010: 16.4C
1989-2013: 16.6C
Here is a chart of the August CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.
GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
Very average looking charts with a possible slight warm up by the end of week 2
ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
Looks average at best for the first 10 days of the month and possibly slightly below at times
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&locId=352409
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/b/6/A3_plots-temp-ASO.pdf
Contingency Planners forecast is out early this month. Shows a strong bias for an above average month. Given the first week is likely to be no better than average this suggests we could see a significant warm spell later in the month. This forecast fits well with the pattern matching below. Worth noting an almost identical above average bias is shown for the 3 month period to October. Fits well with my prediction that November is the earliest we might see a below average month this year. Met Office 30 day forecast shows something a little different suggesting conditions closer to average for the whole monthh.
Pattern matching (just for fun)
If we look at years with a June - July CET combination of between 16C and 17C (2014 should come in around 16.4C) there are a lot of matches. So if I then take those years where the May CET was also at least 11.6C there are 9 matches since 1900.
Of these 9 all bar one had an August CET at or above the 1971-2000 mean. The breakdown is as follows:
1982 15.7C
2005 16.2C
1989 16.6C
1959 17.2C
1933 17.6C
1911 18.2C
2003 18.3C
1947 18.6C
1995 19.2C
There are 6 years where the August CET was more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean and some of them were very warm indeed. So very crudely that would suggest we have about a 2 in 3 chance (67%) of August 2014 continuing the trend of warm months more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean.
First look at the August CET tracker
Edited by moderator
29 July 2014 22:04:01
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