14.7C here which is still +0.2C - but obviously by the second half it is harder to push back up in any year.

Safe to say I'm abandoning this for the year now - no point in flogging a dead horse 

Safe to say I'm abandoning this for the year now - no point in flogging a dead horse 

Don't be a big girl!

           REDUCING........

Met Office Hadley      16.5c.      Anomaly     0.5c.   Provisional to   14th.

Metcheck                  16.50c.    Anomaly     0.42c.

N-W                          17.04c.   Anomaly     0.85c.

Mount Sorrel              16.74c.   Anomaly     0.54c.  

My Mean                    17.1c.     Anomaly   -0.2c.

Latest output suggests a CET of 15.07C by the 29th. A real possibility now that we could see a sub 15C August CET.

That has only happened 3 times since 1970. Last time was 1993 with 14.6C.

As of today the CET stands at 16.24C by my calculations down 0.14C since yesterday.

It is actually quite rare in recent times to have an August with a CET close to 15C and a July with a CET above 17.5C. We did though see this pattern in 2010. In fact the CET figures for the three summer months this year are going to be very similar to 2010. Interesting.......

Looking back to 1900 there are a few more years with a similar July / August CET to this year. In most of these years the September CET is close to the 1971-2000 average with a CET between 13.6C and 14.1C. A couple of years were up at 14.6C and 14.7C. So the pattern matching suggests an average to slightly above average September at this point.

Latest output suggests a CET of 15.07C by the 29th. A real possibility now that we could see a sub 15C August CET.

That has only happened 3 times since 1970. Last time was 1993 with 14.6C.

As of today the CET stands at 16.24C by my calculations down 0.14C since yesterday.

Phew.

Latest output suggests a CET of 15.07C by the 29th. A real possibility now that we could see a sub 15C August CET.

That has only happened 3 times since 1970. Last time was 1993 with 14.6C.

As of today the CET stands at 16.24C by my calculations down 0.14C since yesterday.

I am trying to take this in - This implies some extremely cool weather to knock things down like this - A sub 15C CET for August is really quite rare as you mention - surely to hit this at this stage in the month implies a big run of single figure night time temperatures many of which might be noteworthy.

It also implies a big run of sub 20C daytime temps as well.

Based on current calculations the mean CET for the period 11 Aug to 29 Aug would come in at 14.06C which is 2.07C lower than the 1971-2000 mean for that period of 16.13C.

The equivalent 19 day period in 1993 saw a CET of 14.07C. So August 2014 is shaping up in a very similar way to 1993. We just had a slightly warmer start to the month this year.

September 1993 was cold.

Latest output suggests a CET of 15.07C by the 29th. A real possibility now that we could see a sub 15C August CET.

That has only happened 3 times since 1970. Last time was 1993 with 14.6C.

As of today the CET stands at 16.24C by my calculations down 0.14C since yesterday.

I am trying to take this in - This implies some extremely cool weather to knock things down like this - A sub 15C CET for August is really quite rare as you mention - surely to hit this at this stage in the month implies a big run of single figure night time temperatures many of which might be noteworthy.

It also implies a big run of sub 20C daytime temps as well.

 

 

The current output is telling me that 20C will not be hit at any of the CET stations in the next 2 weeks apart from possibly on the 26th and 27th at Pershore. These maximums can though be understated by a couple of degrees quite frequently.

Minimums are not coming out too low but there is a run of nights with 7-8C at all the CET stations from the 19th to the 22nd. I rather suspect the minimums are overstated to be honest especially as Pershore is a known frost hollow. Hence my thinking that a sub 15C CET is quite possible if we get some clear nights over the next couple of weeks.

Based on current calculations the mean CET for the period 11 Aug to 29 Aug would come in at 14.06C which is 2.07C lower than the 1971-2000 mean for that period of 16.13C.

The equivalent 19 day period in 1993 saw a CET of 14.07C. So August 2014 is shaping up in a very similar way to 1993. We just had a slightly warmer start to the month this year.

September 1993 was cold.

 

Thanks for those details - I can remember that period as well. It was very cool - I'll dig up my CET tables for this.

August 1993 CET 14.6C

September 1993 CET 12.4C - phew that was a bit fresh.

The errors in the annual CET competition this year have been really impressive from those at the top of the table. Unfortunately it looks like those figures are going to take an absolute bashing this month.

For example our leader Gusty has a cumulative error of just 1.32C in the first 7 months of the year. In August alone he could get an error of double this at around 2.6C. Ouch! Despite this he is only likely to drop one place to second with Darren S looking to take the lead again this month.

The other big winner in the top 10 this month is likely to be Martyn. Never count him out. His record in this competition is mighty impressive.

Still time for things to change of course as we are only half way through the month.

Met Office Hadley       16.4c.       Anomaly       0.4c.      Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                   16.38c.     Anomaly       0.16c.

N-W                           16.91c.    Anomaly        0.72c.

Mount Sorrel               16.61c     Anomaly         0.46c.

My  Mean                    17.0c.      Anomaly        -0.5c.

Met Office Hadley      16.3c.     Anomaly      0.2c.   Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                  16.32c.   Anomaly       0.10c.

N-W                         16.8c.     Anomaly       0.16c.

Mont Sorrel               16.55c.   Anomaly       0.35c.

My  Mean                  16.9c.     Anomaly      -0.6c.

The errors in the annual CET competition this year have been really impressive from those at the top of the table. Unfortunately it looks like those figures are going to take an absolute bashing this month.

For example our leader Gusty has a cumulative error of just 1.32C in the first 7 months of the year. In August alone he could get an error of double this at around 2.6C. Ouch! Despite this he is only likely to drop one place to second with Darren S looking to take the lead again this month.

The other big winner in the top 10 this month is likely to be Martyn. Never count him out. His record in this competition is mighty impressive.

Still time for things to change of course as we are only half way through the month.

I think I shall be leaving the table this month...

Met Office Hadley       16.2c.         Anomaly       0.2c.  Provisional to  17th

Metcheck                   16.22c.       Anomaly     -0.00c.

N-W                          16.74c.       Anomaly      0.55c.

Mount Sorrel              16.42c        Anomaly      0.22c

My  Mean                   16.8c.        Anomaly     -0.7c.

Well below average here now at 14.2C

http://i.imgur.com/xr45kKY.gif

The errors in the annual CET competition this year have been really impressive from those at the top of the table. Unfortunately it looks like those figures are going to take an absolute bashing this month.

For example our leader Gusty has a cumulative error of just 1.32C in the first 7 months of the year. In August alone he could get an error of double this at around 2.6C. Ouch! Despite this he is only likely to drop one place to second with Darren S looking to take the lead again this month.

The other big winner in the top 10 this month is likely to be Martyn. Never count him out. His record in this competition is mighty impressive.

Still time for things to change of course as we are only half way through the month.

I think I shall be leaving the table this month...

I'm well and truly stuffed with my CET guess for this month.

The errors in the annual CET competition this year have been really impressive from those at the top of the table. Unfortunately it looks like those figures are going to take an absolute bashing this month.

For example our leader Gusty has a cumulative error of just 1.32C in the first 7 months of the year. In August alone he could get an error of double this at around 2.6C. Ouch! Despite this he is only likely to drop one place to second with Darren S looking to take the lead again this month.

The other big winner in the top 10 this month is likely to be Martyn. Never count him out. His record in this competition is mighty impressive.

Still time for things to change of course as we are only half way through the month.

I think I shall be leaving the table this month...

Don't you dare, Gavin P!!!

PS - I think Martyn gets help from the Russian Ministry for Meteorology

Well here I am using Wife's laptop...

Met Office Hadley          16.1c.       Anomaly        0.2c.   Provisional to18ty

Metcheck                      16.04c.     Anomaly          -0.19c.

N-W                              16.6c.         Anomaly        0.41c.

Mount Sorrel                  16.25c.       Anomaly        0.05c.

My  Mean                       16.7c.        Anomaly        -0.8c.