Thanks GW.

The nights really have been incredibly warm this month.

Indeed Gavin. The minimum CET for October is currently running a shade under 3C above the 1971-2000 average

The first 26 days of October were the second warmest on the minimum CET series since it began in 1878. Top three are:

2001 10.60C
2013 10.25C (provisional my estimate)
1996 10.14C

Also worthy of note is that the October minimum CET is currently warmer than September. The September figure finished at 9.76C, so we are currently 0.5C ahead of September although there are some much cooler nights to come this week.

Met Office Hadley   13.2c.    Anomaly  2.2c.  provisional   to  26th.

Metcheck               12.72c.  Anomaly  2.21c.

N-W                      13.26c. Anomaly   2.86c. 

My  Mean               12.9c. 

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Met Office Hadley   13.1c.   Anomaly    2.3c.   provisional to 27th.

Metcheck              12.69c. Anomaly    2.18c.

N-W                     13.22c. Anomaly    2.82c.

My  Mean              12.9c. 

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Still 13.1C to the 28th - although bizarrely the anomaly is down to 2.2C. Does that mean the long term average CET for Oct 1-28 is higher than for Oct 1-27?

Anyway that will dip a bit in the last three days I imagine. This morning was the first day that the air actually had that fresh, polar "wintry" smell.

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Still 13.1C to the 28th - although bizarrely the anomaly is down to 2.2C. Does that mean the long term average CET for Oct 1-28 is higher than for Oct 1-27? Anyway that will dip a bit in the last three days I imagine. This morning was the first day that the air actually had that fresh, polar "wintry" smell.

Yes, I think GW's 12.5 will be about right in the end.

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Met office Hadley   13.1c    Anomaly 2.2c   provisional to 28th

Metcheck              12.55c  Anomaly 2.04c.  

N-W                     13.08c  Anomaly 2.68c.

My mean              12.8c..

Always good to see the difference on other sites...

Late on parade today..Sky was down due to BT repairs on the phone lines.

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Still 13.1C to the 28th - although bizarrely the anomaly is down to 2.2C. Does that mean the long term average CET for Oct 1-28 is higher than for Oct 1-27? Anyway that will dip a bit in the last three days I imagine. This morning was the first day that the air actually had that fresh, polar "wintry" smell.

Yes, I think GW's 12.5 will be about right in the end.

It would be hard pressed to drop by 0.6C in just three days at the end of the month, surely?

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Still 13.1C to the 28th - although bizarrely the anomaly is down to 2.2C. Does that mean the long term average CET for Oct 1-28 is higher than for Oct 1-27? Anyway that will dip a bit in the last three days I imagine. This morning was the first day that the air actually had that fresh, polar "wintry" smell.

Yes, I think GW's 12.5 will be about right in the end.

It would be hard pressed to drop by 0.6C in just three days at the end of the month, surely?

Yes but don't forget the provisional Hadley figures are always too high. This month they are currently running about 0.2C too high so that only means a drop of 0.4C at most in the last 3 days. It was cool this morning and will be even colder tomorrow morning so I still think we will be close to 12.5C.

Sure doing well.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

2.2C above normal.

 

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Met Office Hadley   12.9c     Anolmaly  2.22c.  provisional  to 29 th.

Metcheck               12.38c.  Anomaly   1.87c.

N-W                      12.89c.  Anomaly   2.49c.

My  Mean               12.6c.

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Met office Hadley    12.8c.   Anomaly  2.1c.  provisional to 30th

Metcheck               12.34c. Anomaly  1.83c.

N-W                      12.85c. Anomaly  2.45c.

My Mean               12.5c. 

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Here are the predictions for October. 64 in total. Most people have gone way too low unless we get a sudden cold snap at the end of the month.

 

Reminder of where everyone was, looks like Rob K has won this month by miles

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Final Hadley figure was 12.52C so nobody had it spot on but Rob K was easily the closest

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

 

Here are the charts for October

The minimum CET of 9.60C was only 0.16C lower than the 9.76C recorded in September.

The minimum CET was the 5th warmest on record since 1878 although the top three years were all very recent as well (2001, 2005 and 2006). In fact 6 of the 8 warmest October CET minimums have occurred since 2001.

Autumn CET is now tracking just over 1C above the 1971-2000 average

Looking at the UK wide temperature October 2013 is likely to be in the top 10 warmest October's since records began back in 1910.

2013 is joint fifth up to the 28th but the last three days of the month were quite a bit cooler so the final position will certainly be lower than fifth.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/october-set-for-top-ten-warmest/

We dropped a bit more than I thought in the last few days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

12.5C 1.9 above normal.

 

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Now three days into November and still no heating on. Quite enjoying the mild weather TBH!

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Now three days into November and still no heating on. Quite enjoying the mild weather TBH!

You're doing well.

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Annual CET competition - October update

We now only have three people with a cumulative error of less than 10C after everyone went too low with their October predictions.

No change at the top of the table but Nemi now has a huge lead over Taylor1740 in second.

Norseman is back up one to third and Stormchaser climbs back up to fourth.

Tractor Boy is one of the biggest climbers this month moving up 13 places to 5th. This is not his highest position of the year though as he was in joint 4th back in January.

Other notable climbers further down the table are redmoons up 13 to 17th, Chidog up 10 to 19th, wallaw up 11 to 31st and Alvin Meister up 11 to 36th.

Big fallers this month are warrenb down 11 to 22nd, sussex snow magnet down 11 to 33rd and Deep Powder down 13 to 49th.