Met Office Hadley  12.9c.   Anomaly  1.6c. provisional to 18 th.

Metcheck              12.40c. Anomaly  1.89c.

N-W                     12.98c. Anomaly  2.58c.

My Mean               12.6c. 

---

We are in the middle of another very mild spell of weather. Currently my CET estimate stands at 12.62C which is 0.3C below Hadley.

Based on current output the CET could reach 12.95C by the 25th. After that the models currently show the warmth leaking away although it still stays above average until the end of the month. Currently my estimate for the finishing CET is 12.57C.

However, if the warmth did stick around until the end of the month then a CET of 13C is quite possible. This is not that unusual in recent times as we have seen 13C+ three times since 2000, the warmest being 13.3C in 2001. There is no realistic chance of beating that this year unless something remarkable happens.

Met Office Hadley    13.0c.  Anomaly   1.7c.  Provisional  to  19th.

Metcheck               12.46c. Anomaly   1.95c.

N-W                      13.03c. Anomaly   2.63c.

My  Mean              12.7c.

  

---

To this stage, October 2013 has IMBY been nearly as warm as both June and September 2013.

I never saw that coming - underestimated the stubborn refusal of that Atlantic trough to progress eastward (the 500mb trough). The persistent higher heights across much of Europe that have resulted take me back to those mild winters like 06/07 - I'm glad we're in Autumn instead!

September and October have destroyed by hopes in the CET competition. I'm just not that lucky - as in lucky enough to finish in the top 5 twice in four years, which would have been extremely fortunate.

Good luck to the rest of you. I'll just be trying to claw back some places for the sake of it!

---

Met Office Hadley   13.1c   Anomaly  1.8c.

Metcheck              12.49c. Anomaly  1.98c.

N-W                     13.06c. Anomaly  2.66c.

My Mean               12.8c. 

---

Looking like a rare victory for me is on the cards! I was surprised how few people went for the very mild end as the charts were definitely pointing to a southerly dominated month.

---

Met Office Hadley 13.1c.     Anomaly    1.9c.  provisional to 21st.

Metcheck             12.62c.   Anomaly    2.12c.

N-W                    13.21c.   Anomaly    2.18c.

My Mean              12.8c.

---

Here are forecasts from 4 of the top 5 warmest Octobers for CET

October 2001
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqgJHF6qI_9tjCnrRS936PW

October 2005
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqJ5mEi2-iwIMvb345Pr_jK

October 2006
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2areEbTfFFRChABMTQQO-UWX

October 1995
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2ar1Iw18kAseRKIHWHAtY9sb

---

Looking like a rare victory for me is on the cards! I was surprised how few people went for the very mild end as the charts were definitely pointing to a southerly dominated month.

I should have just gone with CFS, which showed a very mild month. GFS kept flipping around, and the EC-32 day updates weren't of much use.

In the end I went on a hunch, and it turned out to be a bad one

My respect for CFS just keeps on climbing, though!

---

Phillip Eden up to 20TH October.

www.climate-uk.com

Temp 13.0 +1.7C

Rainfall 79.9 120%

The rainfall figure will Have lifted even futher ahead after last evenings torrential downpours in the south.

 

Met Office Hadley      13.2c.    Anomaly   2.1c.   provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                  12.71c.   Anomaly   2.20c.

N-W                         13.29c.   Anomaly   2.89c.

My  Mean                  12.9c.

 

Just slighty up a bit. 

---

It's been a bit colder today.  Perhaps we'll see a slight fall in the CET now.  I hope! 

Well that is, as far as my CET guess goes I want it to fall but as far as my gas bill goes it can stay mild. 

---

The mean temp for this october here(wareham,dorset) is 14.2c

The mean temp for june here was 14c,only slightly below average.

It will be remarkable and looking very possible, if october turns out to be warmer than june

Has anyone else noticed the seasons are a good month late arriving this year.

Yes I think this year the seasons are a good month later than they have been in recent years, but I think this year they've been more like they used to be.  I suppose it depends how old you are as to what you remember though!   

---

Certainly the trees are still very green down in the south (although the rain and wind of the last few days have stripped a lot of leaves off). Many trees haven't even started to colour up yet.

We had our new wood-burner fitted as couple of weeks ago and so far it hasn't been cold enough to give it a proper test. Had it on a few times and it had the lounge up to near sauna temperatures after a couple of hours! Means I save on logs though I suppose...

---

Met Office Hadley  13.2c    Anomaly     2.1c.    Provisional to  23rd.

Metcheck              12.60c   Anomaly    2.09c

N-W                     13.16c.   Anomaly   2.76c

My Mean               12.9c.

     

---

Met Office Hadley   13.1c.   Anomaly    2.1c.   provisional to 24th.

Metcheck               12.62c.  Anomaly   2.11c. 

N-W                      13.19c.  Anomaly   2.79c.

My Mean                12.8c.

 

Not a lot of change...

---

Met Office Hadley     13.1c.  Anomaly  2.2c.  provisional to   25th.

metcheck                12.72c. Anomaly 2.21c.

N-W                       13.27c. Anomaly 2.87c.

My Mean                12.9c.

 

---

Not much has changed in the past week. I am still expecting the CET to finish around 12.5C

Currently my CET estimate is 12.97C. A steady fall is expected between now and the end of the month.

Thanks GW.

The nights really have been incredibly warm this month.

---