Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday July 31st 2013.
The General Situation. A warm front is moving North over Central Britain currently to be over Scotland tomorrow. The SW flow following on behind backs South tonight and weakens tomorrow with a fine, warm and eventually quite hot Southerly feed over the UK by tomorrow afternoon. Scotland will be cloudy with rain at times, heavy in the West. Then on Friday a cold front crosses East bringing a few showers and more importantly cooler and fresher conditions again as winds veer SW. There is a small risk of thundery showers in the far SE Friday night before all areas settle into a bright and breezy weekend with scattered showers and sunny intervals with temperatures back to near the seasonal average.
GFS then shows a benign and slack pattern over the UK early in the week before a thundery depression moves NNE to deliver a short spell of thundery rain across the South for a time. This then becomes replaced by an Atlantic feed of winds blowing in the wake of the Low's departure North midweek. This then opens the door to a sustained period of Westerly winds, strong at times in the North as Low pressure winds up near Northern Britain with rain at times in a blustery and relatively cool breeze. Little changes then out to the end of the run with Westerly winds, average temperatures and rain or showers at times.
The GFS Ensembles indicate blustery Westerly winds through the second half of tonight's output with Low pressure over the North and rain or showers at times. Until that point the weather up to the 7th in the South remains rather drier with just scattered showers in light winds.
The Jet Stream is as this morning flowing NE across the UK in the next week before turning more West to East also over the UK in the second half of the output.
UKMO shows a showery but light West or NW airflow early next week with sunshine and showers the most likely scenario with the usual mix of some areas getting a few showers and a lot of dry weather while others see quite a few with temperatures close to average.
GEM tonight shows a showery setup early next week with the best of the dry, bright and warm periods between the showers most likely over Southern Britain, especially later in the week.
NAVGEM also shows a changeable start to the week before things try to settle down a bit under a building ridge of High pressure from the SW across the UK later next week.
ECM tonight shows a showery start to the week while the model again winds up an unseasonably deep Low from an ex tropical storm to the NW late in the week with wind and rain sweeping East across the UK late in the week followed by showers and sunny intervals. With average temperatures for the most part and with the onset of wind and rain it would probably feel rather cool especially in the wind.
In Summary the weather continues to look like being rather showery over the early part of next week and possibly somewhat more generally unsettled later with fresh to strong breezes in association with a more vigorous Westerly flow later. There will be up until that point a fair amount of dry and fine weather to enjoy between the showers with quite respectable temperatures in the South and SE at times.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset