UK weather: Glorious 10-day heatwave on its way thanks to 'Beauty from the East'

Warm weather is set to return to the UK but not until the middle of May, according to forecasters

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-glorious-10-day-12420722

Britain to bask in glorious sunshine in 10-day heatwave next month

http://metro.co.uk/2018/04/25/britain-bask-glorious-sunshine-10-day-heatwave-next-month-7495374/

Interesting that the BBC long term forecast on BBC News actually quoted a model by name just now. First time I've heard "GFS" mentioned on any BBC forecast.

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 May 2018 to Friday 11 May 2018:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain will move east across the country on Wednesday followed by sunny spells and showers. Thursday will probably see a dry start in many areas before another band of rain arrives in the west later in the day. Changeable weather will continue during the rest of the period with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. However, there will be a few drier and sunnier spells too, particularly in the south from next weekend onwards, although showers are still possible here. Temperatures will start off fairly cool, although they will tend to recover gradually to near-normal or even a little above normal in the south. It will stay rather cool in the north throughout, so overnight frost remains possible here.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 May 2018 to Saturday 26 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may develop through this period bringing above-average temperatures for many places. However, confidence in this aspect of the forecast is low. Mixed weather with showers or longer spells of rain remain possible, particularly in the north, although any unsettled weather will tend to be short-lived. However, expect some marked variations in temperature as is usual at this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Next weekend

Scotland - Breezy rain at times

England and Wales - More likely drier

10 day summary

Cool and unsettled start
Rain easing from midweek
Warming up a little

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43930792

The boundary of MetO warnings for heavy rain and flooding Sunday/Monday 29th/30th now extended westward to cover most of Hampshire - previous boundary was at mid-Sussex.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-04-30

Meanwhile, the near continent gets an Estofex warning

A level 1 was issued across for tornadoes, hail, very heavy rainfall and wind gusts across Northeast France, Luxembourg, East Belgium, West Germany and Southeast Netherlands.

http://www.estofex.org/

East Hampshire has been in that warning for couple days already. All it has done now is extend it further west in to parts of Dorset - well closer to Dorset border.

'Monday misery': Weather warnings as heavy rain and snow forecast days after heatwave

Temperatures in some parts will struggle to rise above 5C (41F) on Monday with up to 70mm of precipitation on higher hills.

At present, the weather is expected to perk up for the bank holiday weekend with highs of up to 18C (64.4F) on Saturday.

https://news.sky.com/story/monday-misery-weather-warnings-as-heavy-rain-and-snow-forecast-days-after-heatwave-11351865?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 May 2018 to Saturday 12 May 2018:

Thursday and Friday will probably be dry, bright and warmer in the southern half of the UK, and perhaps near northeastern coasts at first. However, rain and strong winds are likely in north-west Britain and in Northern Ireland, keeping it rather cool here. The bank holiday weekend looks quite promising in the south with plenty of dry weather and a good chance of warm sunshine, especially in the southeast. In the north, however, changeable weather will continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to near-normal. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country though there is less confidence about this period.

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 May 2018 to Sunday 27 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. However, confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is low. An alternative but less likely scenario is mixed weather with dry spells interspersed by showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west. Any unsettled weather will tend to be short-lived. Expect some marked variations in temperature as is usual at this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 4 May 2018 to Sunday 13 May 2018:

Friday will be dry, bright and warmer in the southern half of the UK, and perhaps near northeastern coasts at first. However, rain and strong winds are likely in north-west Britain and in Northern Ireland, keeping it rather cool here. The bank holiday weekend looks distinctly promising in the south with plenty of dry weather and a good chance of warm sunshine, especially in the southeast. In the north, however, changeable weather will continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to near-normal. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country though there is less confidence about this period.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 May 2018 to Monday 28 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. However, confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is low. An alternative but less likely scenario is mixed weather with dry spells interspersed by showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, though wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Expect some marked variations in temperature as is usual at this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Next weekend

Generally warm and dry
Any rain largely in NW

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43944129

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 30 April—Sunday 6 May

Cold and wet at first. Warmer later on.

Monday will become cold, wet and windy right across England and Wales with further chances of sleet on hills. The eastern half of England will have the heaviest rain with winds gusting 40-55 mph but winds will increase everywhere. Remaining mostly dry over Scotland and Northern Ireland apart from a little rain in the Borders.

A transient high pressure ridge should make Tuesday become drier but a frontal system looks like bringing rain right across the country around Wednesday. More rain and showers look like moving across northern areas during Thursday and Friday and fresh to strong winds, especially for Scotland, while the south becomes drier, although probably rather cloudy at times.

All the while there will be a warming trend with temperatures up to at least the high teens by Friday afternoon. Mostly dry and warmer for the weekend with highs of around 20 C or just over in the Southeast. Any rain will probably be confined to the NW. Rather humid, though, with overnight mist, fog and low cloud patches possible.

Monday 7 May—Sunday 27 May

Unsettled for a time but then becoming dry

The more settled and warmer conditions could last through Monday but it looks like the weather will soon take a turn for the worse with low pressure becoming more dominant again during the week, so periods of wet and breezy weather will alternate with drier, calmer spells. It won't really be cool, though, temperatures most likely near average. The forecast could go wrong in two ways - either even wetter and windier, so broadly not much different, or more likely there'll be a chance of continental high pressure building more strongly and pushing a warmer and drier air mass towards the UK. It's about a 30 % chance. It looks like a build of high pressure across the UK from Scandinavia will settle the weather down again in the second half of May - drier and calmer but not necessarily notably warm. With higher pressure potentially laying more across the north of the country rather than the south this would mean any rain chances would be more for the south than the north but with risks of becoming more widespread if high pressure weakens more quickly than expected.

Next Update

So if more settled and drier weather develops after mid-May as now expected there are a couple of questions: are there chances of getting significantly warmer; and will those conditions last until the end of the month? Or will high pressure recede back to the Nordic regions and open the door to rain from the south and west?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Not bad updates for those wanting some dry and warm weather.

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 May 2018 to Monday 14 May 2018:

After some early mist and fog, many areas will be dry with warm sunny spells over the Bank Holiday weekend. Along the east coast in particular however, it is likely to be cooler and cloudier. The winds will be light for many, however in the north, changeable weather will continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times, keeping it cooler here. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too though, and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to the seasonal average. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country though there is less confidence about this period. It is likely to stay warm, however there is an increasing risk of thundery showers too.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 May 2018 to Tuesday 29 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The very first sentence is wrong, which hardly fills you with confidence for the rest of it 

CPF April update 

May to July

Temperature summary

For May, the chances of above- and below-average temperatures are close to normal. For May-June-July as a whole, above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 5% and 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).​​​​​​​

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mjj-v1.pdf 
 
Precipitation

For both May and May-June-July as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)​​​​​​​

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-mjj-v1.pdf 

Agreed.

Yep, I was going to post the same. BBC now hopeless. The METO did fail as well and so the best policy is like most other things in life: DIY. In this context, just look at the maps and bob's your uncle 

Bank holiday weekend

Mainly dry
Some sunshine
A little rain in northwest

High pressure could stick around for quite a long time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43957350

THE UK is about to bake in a two-week heatwave with temperatures tipped to nudge 30C (86F) over the May Bank Holiday.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/953244/UK-weather-hot-forecast-heatwave-May-2018-Bank-Holiday-Met-Office-sun 

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 May 2018 to Tuesday 15 May 2018:

After some early mist and fog, many areas will be dry with warm sunny spells on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. Along the east coast in particular however, it is likely to be cooler and cloudier. The winds will be light for many, however in the north, changeable weather may continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times, keeping it cooler here. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too though, and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to the seasonal average. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country. It is likely to stay warm, however there is an increasing risk of thundery showers too, especially in the south.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 May 2018 to Wednesday 30 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Bank holiday weekend

Warming up
Mostly dry
Some sunshine

Next week

High pressure
Settled weather
​​​​​​​Fairly warm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43968206

terry scholey may forecast...

First week: Unsettled particularly at first, but gradually becoming finer and warmer from the South, with the best of the weather over the Bank Holiday weekend.

Second week: Fine and warm at first then a real mixed bag. Cooler and cloudy in the East at times, with the South perhaps becoming humid for a while. Some warm sunshine especially in the North and West but showers especially over England and Wales where thundery intervals are possible mostly in the South, giving local heavy downpours. Probably more generally unsettled and cooler later.

Mid-month to around 19th: Probably the coolest, wettest period towards mid-month, with some locally heavy rains and perhaps unusually low temperatures. After mid-month the weather should show signs of improving and becoming a little warmer from the West.

Around 20th to 27th: Warmer generally, with the best chance of some real summer weather at least for a while. Probably more unsettled at times in the North and West, while much of England and Wales could well become very warm or hot, even very hot and sunny sometime in this period. A thundery spell could follow though, giving local heavy downpours.

Final few days: Probably cooler and more cloudy over much of England and Wales with a chilly wind, but some improvement by month end and becoming mainly dry. Finer with sunny spells over West Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, giving warm afternoons but chilly nights possibly with ground frost.

1st May 2018

if it comes off particularly as regards the extreme fluctuations in temperatures something that has been most apparent in the last couple of months especially following the SSW event in late February .

UK Outlook for Monday 7 May 2018 to Wednesday 16 May 2018:

Bank Holiday Monday and into Tuesday will be mainly fine and dry, with a good deal of sunshine and feeling rather warm for many. However, there may be some coastal mist and fog at times, where it will be cooler. The far northwest may be cloudier with patchy rain and drizzle at times. There is the low risk of some thundery showers developing in the south. Some uncertainty from the middle of next week, although at this stage it looks like most places will stay mainly dry with sunny spells. However, there is an increasing chance of more changeable, breezier interludes, with rain or showers moving in from the west, more especially for northern parts of the UK. Probably remaining warm, but temperatures may return closer to average towards mid-month.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 May 2018 to Thursday 31 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast