wrong thread...I pretty much posted this on the moaning thread albeit I reckon we will get a couple of hours snow on Thursday!

Good forecast from Thomas on the 21:55. Serious tone and plenty of disruption. Its a pity that he wasn't given more time on this occasion.

I agree , excellent forecast for those wanting troublesome weather. He looked very concerned about the week ahead

Snow for the majority on Thursday afternoon through to Friday

The HD GFS ppn and E4 has a defined CVZ Paul developing south side of Thames Estuary Tues am which extends into W Sussex/E Hampshire. A decent chance of you picking up 5cm if it aligns correctly. I’m also looking at a potential Channel Streamer early Weds that may clip the coast.

Pessimism goes with our territory (lessons learnt over the years), but I’m quite positive about this one.

Here in Devon we have two days of clear blue skies and sun from dusk until dawn!

What would be good is if the BBC weather presenters could perhaps run the sequence of snow showers for Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday night into Thursday etc. They seem to only forecast until early evening but don't go through the night like previously.

You will get a Flurry or some light snow Wednesday morning, but all in all! It didn't look so snowy for the south east at all! - Kent included:

Same for Devon - all the snow showers look like they would be 50 miles to the south over the channel. The snow showers seem very hit n miss.

I guess with such cold and dry air we could be seeing snowflakes falling in virtually clear skies at times and from only patchy clouds - almost like ice crystals or diamond dust. I remember crystals/flakes falling for several days up in the Yukon Canada but there was little if any cloud, it just sort of seemed like hazy sunshine but there were flakes in the air. It was -24c though.

Could all change of course but didn't look too good for snow in the south, esp the central and southern area's: Isle of white could do well from this though as will the channel isles.

Wish there was a time to this chart but I would assume it's Thursday afternoon into evening but either way you can't go wrong with it if you want snow in the south for Thursday:

“Today:

A few light wintry showers about this morning but these dying out. Then a mostly dry afternoon with bright spells. Feeling cold with a light to moderate southeasterly breeze. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Tonight:

Clear skies during the evening with a widespread frost. Sleet or snow showers will arrive from the east overnight giving some accumulations, mainly over high ground. Turning breezy overnight. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Tuesday:

A cold day with bright spells and a few sleet or snow showers. The showers most frequent across southern Aberdeenshire. Fresh easterly winds. Maximum temperature 3 °C.”

Based on that I assume the severe weather warning for tomorrow up here will be removed this morning?

You know, I wouldn't be surprised if that above forecast ended up being right. As I have mentioned in other threads, we can have the best model output in the world coming from the world's best experts in that field. Yet, the weather will always do its own thing in the end which can be enough to render that model output as wrong, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was ended up happening this time.

Today is already a casing point with that because today was supposed to be the day when the really cold weather started. Yet, I have woken up to a morning of grey, depressing and boring nothingness with nothing at all happening, expect that the temperature has actually been going up over time, thereby bringing us back to that all too familiar story of another frostless morning.

As far as the model output is concerned, that to me is like receiving a high number of certain communications (emails, Facebook messages, phone calls, texts, letters etc.) telling me that I have just won £10 million on the lottery and that I can claim that prize immediately by phoning a certain number. I then do so, only to find that the whole thing is a complete hoax but of course, we are taught not to fall for that sort of thing anyway on the basis that anything which appears to be too good to be true, probably is.

I'm not saying in any way that we haven't had a very good winter but for several weeks, the model output has been constantly been pointing towards a spell of really cold and severe weather coming up this week which in my books, has to be seen as being too good to be true based on what this winter has been like up until now. I therefore, wouldn't be surprised if that was also just one big massive hoax and until I see some signs of this weather actually happening which this model output is indicating, there is certainly no way that I will be believing that and falling for such a hoax.

A Meteo Group chart. The MetO forecast has all the significant snow further west - be interesting to see who ges it right.

A 'hoax' affecting you then? Because here if anything it's been a tiny bit more wintry than forecast. I awoke to -2C, bone dry air and a few snow flurries. Time will tell whether the MetO and other agencies have been deliberately trying to 'deceive' me. Because that's what 'hoax' means.

Why they would deliberately mislead people is beyond me, but perhaps your choice of words was just a touch melodramatic?

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/0226/943541-national-weather-group/

MetEireann is going all out for heavy snow on Thursday evening/Friday. A risky call for them. There is still considerable doubt as to whether that system will even hit us and even if it does, it could turn milder relatively quickly. If they're wrong about rain, nobody notices. If they get it wrong about snow, everyone notices.

And by the way, for the majority of people it would be good news if it was a 'hoax'. You talk about being 'too good to be true'. Only weather geeks, meteorologists and schoolchildren (do you fall into this group by any chance?) think that major disruption is 'good'. For the rest it'll be a pain in the bum if it comes off.

Sorry, but I couldn't resist that.

I will add though, that I'm not a professional meteorologist. For that reason, I don't usually post in the likes of the MOD thread all that often because I prefer to leave that to those who are more knowledgeable on that subject than what I am.

Basically, I am therefore just a member of Joe Public which is judging things from the outside.

With that in mind, it does sometimes feel that when we have been promised a spell of severe weather by the various forecasts and forecast models but just don't see any signs of that actually happening here, I can sometimes appear to me as though such model predictions are being made as a means of helping certain aspects of the media (and this is the media thread after all) such as the Daily Express to then be able to produce those much over-hyped stories which talk about extreme weather coming up, which then generate a lot of their money.

I have to say (and I'm sure I'm not the first or won't be the last) that the BBC website graphic forecasts are barmy. A few flurries today and a mainly dry day tomorrow compared to the MetO who have a good deal of snow in the morning. Of course the BBC may be right, but the MetO and BBC have become so linked with each other that I can't help feeling that the MetO will get the blame if the BBC is wrong.

To top it off the text for tomorrow is as follows (not backed up by the computer generated graphics even allowing for the error in the type of precipitation):

Today

It will be cold today with a lot of cloud and snow showers continuing to push in from the east. Moderate easterly winds.

Tonight

Cold tonight with further snow showers. A spell of heavy and persistent rain is expected to push in from the east during the early hours.

I can't seem to get Met Office site on my computer at the moment. Any advice, please?

get a new computer

Won't work on my new computer either

Working fine for me. Is this the link you are using?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Hi there,

No. I did not use the above link previously, but now having done so actually works fine for me.

I used a quick link to this, which shows the text and radar forecast for Lowestoft area;

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/u134qs6zb#?map=CloudAndRain&zoom=8&lon=-0.19&lat=52.45&fcTime=1413266400.

This is now loading, but still very slow (yesterday, it was fast). I just wondered if anybody else had the same problem with such forecasts for other areas.

I will bookmark the first link.

Thanks. :)

I think their server is overloaded by millions of people trying to access it. I found it very slow, but the page did eventually display. All I can suggest is to be patient.

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Mar 2018 to Monday 12 Mar 2018:

During the weekend, snow across the UK should slowly peter out from the south, but snow showers remaining in the far north. Across central and southern areas, widespread mist and fog may be slow to clear. Some rain or snow may affect the far south at times, but there is currently a lot of uncertainty at this stage. It will stay cold or very cold across the UK, with brisk winds across the north. During the following week, it is likely to stay cold in the north, but temperatures could become closer to normal in the south. It is looking increasingly likely to be unsettled through the week, with areas of rain and strong winds moving north across the country, perhaps turning to snow across central and northern parts.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 27 Mar 2018:

A blocked pattern remains most likely across much of the UK, with colder than average conditions, but possibly milder at times in the south and southwest. Further bitterly cold easterly winds are probable, giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across some central and northern areas, but in the far north and northwest it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast