But it’s not is it? It’s looks in line with the GEFS 12Z set up to Friday and the recently issued EPS mean which shows the OP was a significant warm option.

It frustrates me how some people seem to be blinkered to basic analysis.

Some people seem to be looking at a breakdown that may not even happen based on one 12z op run its ridiculous tbh.

It isn't one run though the GFS ens mean has shown a rise in 850's for a few days now around the end of next week UKMO started to wobble this morning along with ECM and GEM was starting to wobble last night

Indeed, therefore it would be somewhat unwise IMO for any of us to question what the MetO are saying at the moment about prospects for further into March.

But we don't see the ensemble data available to the Met Office. I question anyone who wants to make a call based on a selection of operational runs. I do agree that GFS has trended towards LP pushing in from the south west and that ECM has also moved in that direction but it's still five days away and a lot will change before then. Experience tells us that entrenched surface cold is difficult to shift: warm air will ride up over the cold.

Just saw the BBC weather forecast by Helen Willetts on N24 @ 2325 - She was really ramping up the snow Monday night into Tuesday and went on to say that this could potentially be the coldest spell of weather we have seen in some 10 - 12 years!? Well I guess she missed December 2010?

Without bothering to check I think next week will be colder than 2010 spell? Perhaps not as snowy or lengthy.

Interesting!

Met has just updated too @01:54 (25/2/18)

Which also includes Saturday now/

If anything it's an upgrade in snow for Exeter/East Devon, with weather warnings for Tuesday and Wednesday and then after for Thursday - A Min of -3c and max of 0c during the day on Thursday and for it to snow from Thursday evening onto Friday evening and to stay as snow with temps only rising to +1 or +2c.

A long way off but the Met still seem bullish about this cold and snow lasting all this week into next weekend with no back tracking at all. As for whether or not it will end in a blizzard!? Who knows!?

From Radio 4's 07:55 am forecast: "blizzards in the south at the end of the week"

For posterity - it's been 32 years since we've seen a chart like this at this time of year. (Click for full size)

EDIT: Interesting to hear blizzards being mentioned in the forecasts now. The sad thing is, most people won't know what that means - the other week, in Tesco, when we'd had flurries of snow, I heard people gossiping about the "blizzards" they'd driven through to get to work. Boy, are they in for a shock!

Hiya Folks,im Shaun,new to the forum and from Evesham ( is Essan still on here,as he is from the same town?) In reply to Tallyho,actually at the start of last December,it reached -12 C one night in Pershore,which was the coldest winter temps in these parts since Dec 2010,and also had the heaviest snowfall since 2010.Looking at the temperature forecast,would be very surprised if it gets colder than -12,the days are getting rapidly longer now.

Great forecast from P Avery snow becoming more widespread on Tuesday , frequent heavy snow showers through Wednesday and Thursday . 

Windchill of -15 

He mentioned Friday day ‘if’ the low in the bay of biscay moves up , blizzards in Southern Britain . 

Clearly the Beeb aren’t very sure either . Let’s remember they aren’t representing the Met O anymore 

People also don't seem to know what "flurries" means. I've seen news broadcasts in recent years talking about a region being hit by snow flurries over video footage of near blizzard conditions.

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Mar 2018 to Sunday 11 Mar 2018:

Northern areas will be bright with further snow showers on Friday, but we could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a an element of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is looking increasingly likely to be unsettled with a north-south split in temperatures across the UK. The coldest and driest conditions are likely in the far north and northwest. We may see areas of rain moving northeastwards from the southwest at times, which could well turn to snow across central and northern areas. It will be often windy with gales possible at times. Remaining cold for many, but nearer normal temperatures at times in the southern half of the UK.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Mar 2018 to Monday 26 Mar 2018:

A blocked pattern remains most likely across much of the UK, with colder than average conditions, but possibly milder at times in the south and southwest. Further bitterly cold easterly winds are probable, giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across some central and northern areas, but in the far north and northwest it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 24 February—Sunday 25 February
Increasingly cold but mainly dry and settled.

A vast high pressure area over Scandinavia will continue to intensify and extend its influence further west, so overhead the UK by Sunday. This will allow a fresh E to SE wind flow to develop, feeding in progressively colder air from the east as milder Atlantic air and associated fronts remain at bay well to the west of the UK. Whilst dry for much of the weekend, there will be an increased threat of snow showers drifting in from the east on Sunday night. Frost overnight will be the main hazard, with widespread sharp frosts (-4C to -6C quite widely, locally down to -9C). The cold air will be accentuated by the fresh easterly winds.

Monday 26 February—Sunday 4 March
Bitterly cold end to winter with snowfall.

The start of next week marks an uptick in the arrival of a very cold airmass from Scandinavia and N Russia. The UK is very likely to experience a severe episode of winter weather conditions, possibly with close to record cold for this time of year. Similar very cold easterly spells at this time of year in the past include February 1962 and 1986, and more recently 2005 and 2013.

Fresh E to NE winds will start to drive in lines of snow showers from the North Sea from the word go next week into the eastern half of Scotland and England. A few will filter further west, but will be much lighter here. Snow accumulations starting to occur on Monday, but there is a threat of a zone of more organised snow showers pushing SW across the UK on Monday night and Tuesday, which could give more widespread and significant snow accumulations - especially over eastern Scotland, north-eastern England and down through parts of the Midlands. However, there is uncertainty on amounts with weather models often having a poor handling on such situations several days ahead. There will also be the risk for a stream of snow showers into southern parts of SW England Tuesday night into Wednesday. Due to the cold and very dry air, the snow will be powdery in nature and will easily drift in the fresh NE winds. Severe frost overnight and daytime maxima struggling to rise above 0C, especially the higher parts of England.

Extreme wind chill values (feels like temperature) expected on Tuesday to Thursday (feeling like -10C to -14C). Regarding snowfall, it will still be the eastern half of the UK most exposed to frequent and heavy snow showers and disruptive accumulations midweek. However, there is the threat of a band of widespread and heavy snow, accompanied by fresh easterly winds, moving northwards over the southern half of the UK between Thursday night and Saturday, although confidence is very low on this potential event. Regardless of this, temperatures will remain well below average through the second half of next week.

Monday 5 March—Sunday 18 March
Gradually less cold, although still a snow risk.

Analysis of longer-range models suggests that there will be somewhat of a transition during the second week of March and more especially around mid-month. The strong high pressure over N Europe that was responsible for the severe cold outbreak at the start of March should weaken, opening the door to low pressure influence from the south (which will in the meantime give disturbed weather to S Europe). It is therefore likely to turn more unsettled with a greater frequency of wet and breezy days, and with cold air masses still lingering over the UK this will present the risk of further snow.

Indeed, there is the risk for further disruptive wintry weather entering the early part of the meteorological spring, with snow, ice and overnight frosts all possible as cold air is only gradually eroded by mild SW air flows. However, a repeat of the imminent significant cold weather is unlikely by the time we reach mid-March.

Next Update

How influential could the return of low pressure areas be by mid-March? Will we experience stormy conditions again after mid-month or will there be another late burst of wintry weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Yes still a good update from the M4 services northwards.

Weather for the week ahead on BBC One was broken so we had a shot of the old weather graphic and a BBC announcer reading the weather out.