The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
24 February 2018 08:01:55

On the subject of TV weather graphics my view is they have been on a downhill track for a number of years. They will improve once designers learn how to optimise the display the technology without feeling the need to use all of the gimmicks it offer. The new BBC graphics are mediocre IMO but I didn't like the Metra ones either which were previously used.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

nsrobins
24 February 2018 08:20:26
Brilliant presentation by Phil Avery on bbc1 this morning. Good detail and the right amount of caution v warning.

I’m relieved because I genuinely thought there was a conspiracy to hide the truth!


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Chichesterweatherfan2
24 February 2018 09:40:14
Regardless of the actual weather being forecasted and whether it is good or bad news for a snow lover like me, Phil Avery is a brilliant forecaster imho...great presentation and communication!
Gavin D
24 February 2018 09:44:07
Question marks over the low later next week could bring a lot of snow or it could stay further south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43175955 

scillydave
24 February 2018 09:56:29

I' loving the yellow warning that' just come out - it has just about everything including "lightning as an additional hazard". Welcome to winter!!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

scillydave
24 February 2018 10:03:48
And another yellow warning for Wednesday - up to 20cm for some places on the East coast.

Brian please can we have th Polar Bears now pleassseeee.


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

doctormog
24 February 2018 10:07:12

And another yellow warning for Wednesday - up to 20cm for some places on the East coast.

Brian please can we have th Polar Bears now pleassseeee.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

The wording from the Chief Forecaster is interesting reading:

“Chief Forecaster's assessment

Showers will bring a large variation in amounts of snow across even small areas with some places seeing very little snow. There is the potential for 10-15 cm of snow in places where showers become more frequent whilst nearby locations may see much less frequent showers and only small accumulations of 1-3 cm in places. Strong winds will lead to drifting of snow, and lightning could be an additional hazard, particularly near North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel coasts. By the end of Wednesday, more than 20 cm may have accumulated in places in some eastern counties of England, Scotland and Norther Ireland from a culmination of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's snow showers.”


Rob K
24 February 2018 10:44:53

On the subject of TV weather graphics my view is they have been on a downhill track for a number of years. They will improve once designers learn how to optimise the display the technology without feeling the need to use all of the gimmicks it offer. The new BBC graphics are mediocre IMO but I didn't like the Metra ones either which were previously used.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

IMO it would be far better if they used a black and white background map because then they could use different colours for snow, rain, cloud etc without clashing. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arcus
24 February 2018 10:47:52

 

IMO it would be far better if they used a black and white background map because then they could use different colours for snow, rain, cloud etc without clashing. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

A plainer background definitely - then you could show cloud as a "shadow" effect rather than using white shading that makes it very hard to pick up areas of snow or snow showers.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

north norfolk coast
24 February 2018 11:26:15

And another yellow warning for Wednesday - up to 20cm for some places on the East coast.

Brian please can we have th Polar Bears now pleassseeee.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

 

Yes time for the bears,if they don't come now with the beast about to pounce, then they will never comeback.....😁😂

moomin75
24 February 2018 11:26:59

 

 

Yes time for the bears,if they don't come now with the beast about to pounce, then they will never comeback.....😁😂

Originally Posted by: north norfolk coast 

I agree. Lets ses the polar bears Brian.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

tallyho_83
24 February 2018 11:31:23

Is this two forum a bit slow today!? it seems to freeze whenever I post a comment!? Site traffic?

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The Online weather looks good for snow in the south and staying cold.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm




Week ahead - February 24, 2018


Bitter easterly winds
Snow problems all week


Issued: 1000hrs Saturday 24th February 2018
Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson


Locally very heavy snow and drifting

The week ahead will bring the coldest weather Britain has seen for many years. Frigid air originating from Siberian will be drawn around high pressure centred over Scandinavia, transported towards us on bitter easterly winds. Moisture picked up over the North Sea will produce heavy snowfalls, focused on east & north-eastern regions, and also locally in the south-west where showers come in from the Channel.


Tuesday 27/02/18
Very cold for all, and significant snow is possible. A trough of low pressure moving in from the North Sea brings a risk of snow becoming heavier, focused on east and north-eastern regions, but snow may sweep across much of the country. Substantial accumulations are possible on eastern hills from the Peak District to the Grampians, but snow will also lie to the lowest levels. Staying near or below freezing point all day.


Wednesday 28/02/18
Continued easterly winds maintain extremely cold weather through midweek. Severe frost overnight, with minimum temperatures -5 to -10C or locally lower in shelter. Further snow is likely, focused on eastern areas, with some prolonged heavy falls possible. Bands of showers over the English Channel may also bring heavy snow to parts of Devon and Cornwall. Daytime temperatures staying sub-zero for some, and only 0 to 2C at best.


Thursday 01/03/18
A continuing very cold easterly pattern. Severe wind chill. Snow in north-eastern areas, also eastern parts of Ireland. Risk belts of snow also clipping south-west England. Central England and Wales may be dry and bright with hazy sun. Staying near or below freezing by day. Scope for exceptionally low overnight temperatures below -5C in shelter, but in rural areas -10C or lower is possible.


Friday 02/03/18
Little overall change - staying cold. Detail uncertain, further snow is likely in the north-east as strong easterly winds persist. A chance of snow developing more widely in the south if fronts try and encroach north from Biscay. Hard frost and daytime temperatures around freezing point.

Saturday 03/03/18
Staying cold, with an easterly weather pattern prevailing. Possible snow flurries, and a small risk of some more organised snow in the south. Highs 0 to 3C at best.

Sunday 04/03/18
Most likely staying bitterly cold. Areas of snow showers or flurries in the east. A small risk of low pressure to the south bringing snow more widely. Highs 0 to 3C.


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
24 February 2018 12:01:50
Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:

March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:

The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
24 February 2018 12:08:39
Flu WARNING: Britons face killer flu RESURGENCE as UK forecast Siberian freeze & snow

THE UK faces a resurgence of the flu as temperatures plummet below freezing next week, a top health and influenza expert has warned. The sub-zero weather is also “likely” to cause widespread snowfall, according to the Met Office

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/923158/flu-warning-resurgence-uk-weather-forecast-snow-met-office-influenza-virus 

Gavin D
24 February 2018 12:10:46
UK set for 24-hour non-stop snow DELUGE as weather systems smash creating huge SNOW SQUALL

BRITAIN is facing a 24-hour winter deluge which threatens to dump the most snow for almost a decade in parts.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/923045/Snow-UK-2018-weather-forecast-heavy-snow-Met-Office 

llamedos
24 February 2018 12:12:38

[quote=Gavin D;978731]Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:

March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:

The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[/quote]  Not too shabby


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

DavidK
24 February 2018 12:13:40
Met office update seems to suggest GFS is overdoing the progression of the LP. Given they’ve called this cold spell right (so far) you’d have to side with them.

As an aside there is an increasing discrepancy between the met office forecasts and the BBC. I wonder what the track record is of the Meteogroup in these unusual situations which probably require greater input from experienced forecasters than normal. There’s no point the BBC saving money if the forecasts end up wrong.


Crookes, Sheffield, 226 metres asl
Brian Gaze
24 February 2018 12:15:40

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:

March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:

The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Thanks for posting these updates but could you possibly include the publication time too? I've asked this several times before (and feel free to conclude that I'm thick) but I have no idea whether that is or isn't the last text update from Exeter today.  


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
24 February 2018 12:19:00

 

Thanks for posting these updates but could you possibly include the publication time too? I've asked this several times before (and feel free to conclude that I'm thick) but I have no idea whether that is or isn't the last text update from Exeter today.  

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It is an error on the met office site the time only updates twice a day for some reason

The updates I post are always correct as the dates chage yesterday it was Wednesday 28 Feb 2018 to Friday 9 Mar 2018 today it is Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018

moomin75
24 February 2018 12:21:33

UK set for 24-hour non-stop snow DELUGE as weather systems smash creating huge SNOW SQUALL


BRITAIN is facing a 24-hour winter deluge which threatens to dump the most snow for almost a decade in parts.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/923045/Snow-UK-2018-weather-forecast-heavy-snow-Met-Office

Hyperbole in the headlines, saying the most snow in a decade in the opening paragraph, then next paragraph saying "could be hit by up to four inches of snow in the worst hit places". Hardly the blizzard of the century is it!?


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Charmhills
24 February 2018 12:25:42

Yet another stunning 30 day update.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

tallyho_83
24 February 2018 12:34:45

[quote=Gavin D;978731]Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:

The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[/quote]  Not too shabby

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

The fact that from 11th March the Met Office seem very confident - it is at odds with GFS model output.


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Joe Bloggs
24 February 2018 12:39:38

Have we ever seen blizzards forecast in these text updates? Away from mountainous Scotland? 

Ally Pally Snowman
24 February 2018 12:42:51

World class update can't ask for anymore especially in March. 

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
24 February 2018 12:51:08

">https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/923045/Snow-UK-2018-weather-forecast-heavy-snow-Met-Office

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Hyperbole in the headlines, saying the most snow in a decade in the opening paragraph, then next paragraph saying "could be hit by up to four inches of snow in the worst hit places". Hardly the blizzard of the century is it!?

Yes, the Express are going into overdrive with even more apocalyptic headlines than usual. 😁

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