For comparison....

2010:

Today:

Oops! Sloppy posting on my part 

I was looking at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html and referring to the second chart (20-28 Jan) as 'next' week

looks like it has been cut and pasted.  Those cold rows for the next 10 days are pretty well set in stone now. The end looks a little scattered, but at that range it is quite normal to see, however quite a few members very cold out into Lalaland. 

Exactly my thoughts. It's a long, long time since we've had a genuinely cold NW'ly polar maritime. With cold holding for at least a week it will be very interesting to see how it pans out compared to these situations 30 years ago. Disturbances are likely and back then could certainly bring some heavy snow showers even to the south although settling would be an issue probably.

Agree. Having said that we need to agree what conditions were like in the Jan 84 "snowfest". As noted recently I have no recollection of significant snow during that month in York. 

GFS 06z is showing a nice disturbance at 126 hrs

What's going on here then? Temps up to 12 or 13c in far SW on Wednesday!:

Best not confuse a realistic appraisal of projected conditions with negativity, but I agree I enjoy Joe's enthusiasm

And speaking of realism, the projected freezing level (one of the myriad of parameters of course) ranges from 200m in Scotland to 800m in the far SW for much of next week. This should be fine for places with height but with the low altitude and proximity to maritime modification areas near the W coast and generally in the South will need intensity and nocturnal temperature dips to get snow down to ground level. All subject to change of course.

Be careful what you wish for. As others have said, the conditions are only conducive to possible snow because of the direct nature of the flow of cold air. Start introducing disturbances and it lessens that - especially any sort of circulation that would inevitably mix in milder air.

Early Jan 1984 I was moving house and snow was around then but memory fading for details.

I'd argue that in both Jan and Mar 13 there were much better charts (even if you didn't receive much snow)

I've got huge concerns that this spell isn't going to bring lying snow to the majority in the north west (in terms of population) as Merseyside/West Lancs/Gtr Manc/Cheshire below 200m asl (which is about 75% of the NW's population) misses out.

The best output suggests the right side of marginal, but other output has us on the wrong side - and disturbances/shortwaves would tip the balance further against us.

I'd rate lying snow chances at 25% for St Helens & Manchester, perhaps as much as 50% for you, somewhat less than 25% for Wirral Russ.

But don't forget that a vigorous LP system with intense precipitation changes the parameters, as happened with both snowfalls in December. Provided you're North of the warm sector it ought to be OK, all things being equal. Plus you'd have an easterly or northerly component to the wind direction?

Of course at this range the track will change.

It's interesting though, given the discussions in here a day or two ago about GFS not having shown any disturbances forming along the sharp temperature gradient on the southern flank of the LP.  ECM had shown something similar but then shifted it south.

For a couple of days I've been watching the predicted behaviour of the LP around Newfoundland next weekend, the jetstream profile and the Azores High.  If we're to get an easterly, or a more blocked pattern generally, then I think we need to see the right signals across the Atlantic. At the moment I'm not sure - the ridge northwards is just moving eastwards under renewed pressure from the jetstream but it could evolve OK given the upper heights to the north.

I'm bloody awful at pinning dates to snowfalls, but I remember this one. I'd broken my arm playing rugby for the school sometime around end of Nov/beginning of Dec. First game back was in Jan on a Saturday morning, I got caught at the bottom of a ruck, and had the same arm stamped on. Pain was intense and my wrist swelled up to twice normal size. Back to the hospital where before I'd had x-rays the doctor told me I'd broken it. I promptly threw up - another month in plaster! X-rays revealed no break, but a ruptured muscle & badly bruised bone. Relief. By the time I got home, it was snowing & settling. When my mates called, I remember not being allowed out to play in the snow (I was 11, nearly 12) because I had my arm strapped up.

Wasn't the last time it snowed that winter, because I've got another memory of being in high school in my 1st year and being part of a group of about 100 pupils stood at the front of the school grounds one break and pelting passing busses & lorries with snowballs. The headmaster - real old school; always wore a black cape! - came running out shouting at us all to stop where we were. Everyone ran, but guess which numpty slipped on his arse? He was quick for someone in their 60's and by the time I'd scrambled to my feet, he was about 20 yards away. I made to scarper and he roared "Don't you dare, boy!". So I stopped and accepted my fate, being surprised and relieved that it consisted only of being lectured for a minute on the stupidity of throwing snowballs at vehicles.

I'd phrase it "will affect western Scotland way more than the N/W of England"

I have some photos taken on the West Highland railway line in late January 1984 in a book on trains that I have, and the amount of snow in the photos was copious. Will try and post them up in another thread when I get the time.

Something like the NASA run would do!

I agree with Saint and would rather keep the clean NW’ly flow 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_132_2.png

These sort of things are bound to crop up though. 

Yes, something vaguely along those lines....