New thread...

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GFS 18z

Here comes Gusty’s Buxton snow storm...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_96_2.png

😂❄️

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GFS is another fantastically snowy run for large parts of northern and western Britain, especially over the hills.

Deep falls likely in places with strong convective opportunities allowing for the potential for thundersnow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_126_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_126_2.png

 

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GFS 18z

Here comes Gusty’s Buxton snow storm...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_96_2.png

😂❄️

Tuesday 7pm Heavy convective snow showers pushing across NW England. Its looking good for me and all of my new mates in the NW crew. 

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Tuesday 7pm Heavy convective snow showers pushing across NW England. Its looking good for me and all of my new mates in the NW crew. 

I hope the models are indeed right Gusty and you along with the rest of the NW posse end up buried in the stuff.

Out to T+162 and it just goes on and on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_162_1.png

 

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Expect some moderation and inevitable downgrades come the day, but I have to say some places like Sheffield and Buxton could see some heavy falls of snow looking at the latest data, yet just move some distance south and east many people will be wondering what all of the fuss is about.

I know I’m talking to myself :-)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_174_1.png

That low is a potential spoiler if it comes in too close to the UK - it would introduce more marginality. 

Nit picking though. 

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Out to 168 hours and the convective snow train on that WNW'ly just keeps on coming, drawing cold off the Greenland Ice sheet.

Nearly a foot over higher parts of the NW England towards the Pennines. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/hauteur-neige/168h.htm

 

 

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Expect some moderation and inevitable downgrades come the day, but I have to say some places like Sheffield and Buxton could see some heavy falls of snow looking at the latest data, yet just move some distance south and east many people will be wondering what all of the fuss is about.

Say, Portugal?

I hope the models are indeed right Gusty and you along with the rest of the NW posse end up buried in the stuff.

 

That heavy pulse... that's over YBY innit?

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I know I’m talking to myself :-)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_174_1.png

That low is a potential spoiler if it comes in too close to the UK - it would introduce more marginality. 

Nit picking though. 

 

You're really not!

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That heavy pulse... that's over YBY innit?

Indeed it is Saint........ 🤪

 

 

You're really not!

Joe has been leading the troops rather well throughout this 😎

Joe has been leading the troops rather well throughout this 😎

Definitely looking good for anywhere in the region with altitude. Coast could still get rain, as could the big cities. 

I’m hoping to see some upgrades so I’m in with a shout too, even down here. 

 

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on 18z gfs run - still a,lot of cold air to east around +276:

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This is incredibly interesting I am surprised that there is not more interest in here!

It looks to me, that we have a lobe of the PV, very similar in strength to 18th,19th and 20th December 2010, but further North and West this time, rather than right over us, but still close enough to have a significant influence on us.

Anyway the origin of the low/PV lobe and the area the air will travel over as it reaches us, is very cold. I agree with quantum, could be some very low minima up north over any snow fields that form. Looking forward to your photos/reports Joe, Saint et al if the charts play out as currently shown......

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Well I would take this chart at any time. If that Greenland high can intensify from this point:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=228&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

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Polar maritime flows can be very fickle. The boundary layer mixing as the flow traverses a thousand miles of ocean will always influence the percentage risk at that rain/snow transition point but with heights so low (can’t find the 1000/850 thickness but 850 and 500 level look good) altitude will be key.
Watch out for troughs and shortwaves - they won’t be modelled more than 3 days out and are likely to introduce the sort of lift that can see a lot of snow over a short timeframe.

Further ahead and wide divergence so no point commenting at this stage.

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IMBY but Hopefully, models haven’t picked up on some disturbances in the flow which could move across the country, I think that is my only real chance of seeing anything of relevance otherwise just Cold and windy for here

D

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