It's amazing how often it seems to be the case that the forecasts and the models are out of sync. It seems as if the forecasts lag behind the models for a day or two. Hopefully that was the Beeb just catching up with the first model wobble, and in a day or two they will catch up with the flip back 🙂

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Yes some good agreement on a colder plunge this morning. 

GFS - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_120_1.png

ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

MetO 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_120_1.png

GEM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_120_1.png

JMA (t+84)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/JMAOPEU00_84_1.png

There isn’t a single one of those links above that doesn’t show some promise, and we are now lurking in semi reliable territory. Interesting times, but the usual caveats apply i.e. things could look very different in time for the 12z suite.

MetO output is currently least keen, ECM and GFS most solid runs this morning. 

What I like is that every one of those models has at least some low pressure over the Azores or Canaries. For all the moaning about Euro highs, ultimately it's the wretched Azores high which has come to symbolize frustration for me when it comes to British winters. When that's absent, then nobody can get away with claiming it's all going to go zonal as usual.

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Notably mild for parts of England and Wales this week, also quite windy too. Always cooler and quite wet up North, some wintry stuff for usual suspects here. Hints of eye candy in FI, the swings of extreme looking charts should I think be watered down nearer the time to nothing unusual for the time of year.
I would think perhaps 16 or even a 17c may be reached this week in the south, although sadly tempered by the wind?

 

Id be amazed to see that , 13c or 14c probably, your a tad optimistic Jas

 

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BBC weather not buying in to the cold plunge fully... said it was mentioned yesterday but they are not so sure now.  That's some flip in 24 hours, both by models and the Beeb!

 

Don't think it has been discounted completely, though. The UKMO is still showing a NW plunge developing by next Sunday, so it could be that it's will be delayed slightly.

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BBC weather not buying in to the cold plunge fully... said it was mentioned yesterday but they are not so sure now.  That's some flip in 24 hours, both by models and the Beeb!

 

They weren't having any of it yesterday evening

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Id be amazed to see that , 13c or 14c probably, your a tad optimistic Jas

 

The raw GFS high res output shows 14C in the south-east on Thursday afternoon under partly cloudy skies. It wouldn't really be a surprise for a few places to record 15C or even 16C if circumstances are favourable.

Which, of course, will make what most likely happens 48 hours later even more noticeable: a 10-degree drop.

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Constant NWLy flow from GFS 6z

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The raw GFS high res output shows 14C in the south-east on Thursday afternoon under partly cloudy skies. It wouldn't really be a surprise for a few places to record 15C or even 16C if circumstances are favourable.

Which, of course, will make what most likely happens 48 hours later even more noticeable: a 10-degree drop.

I think that is there are any prolonged bright spells in the south-east on Thursday afternoon, then a max of 15-16C is certainly a possibility. Even at this time of year, the sun can make a big difference when it comes to temperatures.

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It's amazing how often it seems to be the case that the forecasts and the models are out of sync. It seems as if the forecasts lag behind the models for a day or two. Hopefully that was the Beeb just catching up with the first model wobble, and in a day or two they will catch up with the flip back :)

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Perhaps it's because the BBC via the Met Office have the expertise to interpret the models of the atmosphere into actual weather conditions at specific locations better than we do. Many a -7C 850hPa over the years has disappointed me with drizzle :-(

 

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I thought as of spring this year the BBC used Metogroup not the Metoffice.

I thought as of spring this year the BBC used Metogroup not the Metoffice.

 

Not for the first time, the private company couldn't fulfil its obligations by the deadline, so the MET Office contract has been extended.

Quite why the BBC are still considering moving to this company after such a cock-up is beyond me - although the whiff of political interference still lingers.

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Not for the first time, the private company couldn't fulfil its obligations by the deadline, so the MET Office contract has been extended.

Quite why the BBC are still considering moving to this company after such a cock-up is beyond me - although the whiff of political interference still lingers.

 

Thanks, I stand corrected.

Black Friday followed by White Saturday.

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Rather unsettled for northern parts in the next few days (with the risk of flooding in some places) and generally milder across the board but then it looks like turning colder with an unsettled northwesterly regime prevailing bringing wintry weather to high ground in the north and generally cool conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_72_18.png 

It’s always a risk with milder and more mobile conditions and is one of the reasons I would much prefer colder and more settled conditions at this time of year.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_72_18.png 

It’s always a risk with milder and more mobile conditions and is one of the reasons I would much prefer colder and more settled conditions at this time of year.

Same here, Michael. Given the amount of rain we've had here over the past few months (although November has been a bit drier generally until now), we could well do without spells of very wet weather over the coming winter. Thankfully, the one this week doesn't look like being a sustained affair.

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Black Friday followed by White Saturday.

 That purple blob looks pretty close to me. If that comes off we could end up with snow depths similar to the end of November 2010. 

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Don't hold your breath Caz, the BBC at lunchtime went with the milder weather for the south and Midlands hanging on in there.
All eyes down for an interesting set of runs......

Don't hold your breath Caz, the BBC at lunchtime went with the milder weather for the south and Midlands hanging on in there.
All eyes down for an interesting set of runs......

Thats interesting. I wonder what model they are using as all the publicly available data I can see have it much cooler even further south by the weekend as does the Met Office.

Whether it likely to be cold enough for any wintry weather is a different matter. None of the current charts seem to show the milder conditions hanging on in central England at the weekend. 

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 indeed Brian

F-around 600metres,, elevated height evap cooling? temp falling rapidly behind front 528 clearing south coast who know just a little bit more for EA then huge flakes little doubt

dew around 0

uppers -6 as she clears very very close

uote=Brian Gaze;942827]

Black Friday followed by White Saturday.

 

Thats interesting. I wonder what model they are using as all the publicly available data I can see have it much cooler even further south by the weekend as does the Met Office.

Whether it likely to be cold enough for any wintry weather is a different matter. None of the current charts seem to show the milder conditions hanging on in central England at the weekend. 

yes Doc I raised an eyebrow at the lunchtime forecast, who knows? If these patterns continue then we could be in for a rollercoaster ride for early winter with some lucky few having a surprise snowfall or two.