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yes Doc I raised an eyebrow at the lunchtime forecast, who knows? If these patterns continue then we could be in for a rollercoaster ride for early winter with some lucky few having a surprise snowfall or two.
It’s been so long since a decent snowfall here I would be more shocked than surprised.
Here’s the ECM 12z chart for Saturday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png
Not overly mild but possibly not overly wintry even if it is cool (with the cooler air in about 48hrs earlier than this in northern parts)
Yes it was a strange forecast seems to go against all output at the moment. and 17c reached today like you said Jacko.
EC
feeling bitter in the strong wind
can that s/wave get thru s/grenny
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0
Nice ecm up to 168h but probably not cold enough for lowland snow in England.
Don't hold your breath Caz, the BBC at lunchtime went with the milder weather for the south and Midlands hanging on in there.All eyes down for an interesting set of runs......
take it with open arms good start to winter
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0
take it with open arms good start to winterhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0
Definitely take it but could do with being a couple of degrees colder
should get a pump up waa at 240 look at source feed
Nice good run
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0
Id be amazed to see that , 13c or 14c probably, your a tad optimistic Jas
I dont know, look at today.
Quite a stiff easterly by 216 (albeit not that cold) on the ECM then cold and slack at 240. Could be worse!
Looks a pretty reasonable run to me too!
is this moment of truth or death it looks tricky many swaves areas around grenny have done us before
ukmo
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021
Thats interesting. I wonder what model they are using as all the publicly available data I can see have it much cooler even further south by the weekend as does the Met Office.Whether it likely to be cold enough for any wintry weather is a different matter. None of the current charts seem to show the milder conditions hanging on in central England at the weekend.
Thats interesting. I wonder what model they are using as all the publicly available data I can see have it much cooler even further south by the weekend as does the Met Office.
Whether it likely to be cold enough for any wintry weather is a different matter. None of the current charts seem to show the milder conditions hanging on in central England at the weekend.
The reality of that lunchtime forecast was that he stressed that there was uncertainty on how far south the colder air would get.
There's a large difference between UKMO and ECM at T+120 for the predicted 500-1,000 hPa Thickness over the SE. The UKMO chart has around 530-535 whilst ECM has around 10 dam lower: that's the difference between certain rain and probable snow.
Incidentally, the weather forecast on BBC N24 at 7.30 said the colder air would reach the entire country by Saturday.
There's a large difference between UKMO and ECM at T+120 for the predicted 500-1,000 hPa Thickness over the SE. The UKMO chart has around 530-535 whilst ECM has around 10 dam lower: that's the difference between certain rain and probable snow.Incidentally, the weather forecast on BBC N24 at 7.30 said the colder air would reach the entire country by Saturday.
Yes its probably cold enough at 120 but doesn't get cold enough again until 240. The day 10 chart is stunning looks like a prolonged cold spell from there 81 esque.
This could bring some wintry potential for eastern coastal areas - a long way off - but nice to see some northerly shots even in FI:
18z GFS rolling out.
6pm Thursday. T+72 hours. Reliable territory!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_72_1.png
Heavy snow showers pushing into the NW Highlands. 😊