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Gets better and better
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_120_1.png
Saturday could be wintry, especially to high ground in western Scotland, Northern Ireland, NW England.
Uppers look conducive to snow, maybe not quite cold enough to low levels. Buxton for example looks likely to get clobbered if this run verifies.
I’m talking to myself but I’ll carry on..
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_159_1.png
A potential snow risk here as a little disturbance pushes into a cold pool. No point looking any further.
Lots to keep us on our toes. Fingers crossed for no downgrades tomorrow 😀.
Still nothing of interest for those South of the M4.. Enjoying the low teens in the meantime
A long feed northerly can deliver daytime temps of +7C or higher on the south coast in January so you are right. However I'm hopeful of seeing falling snow here within the next 10 days.
Easiy 7C in January and as for snow... One would be best to forget about it if you live more central to the south of the M4 - highly unlikely. Just chill winds and sunny days followed by overnight frosts.
Thankfully life exists in the hundreds of miles north of the M4 and it looks especially cool at times northwest of the M80. Further down the line something a bit more anticylonic seems possible
Don't we just know it come summer time 😎😁
I didn’t realise the output went that far out.Looks like a pub run FI reload for some eye candy http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_264_1.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_288_1.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_324_1.png
More than happy with the 18z
But will they deliver what is shown or will we just see downgrades like last Winter!?
After last winter's GFS model fiasco & flips etc - This winter, I am much more skeptical about taking things seriously for anything after +120 hrs. That being said the GFS are turning colder after a few milder if not warm days until this Friday. This is also backed up by the BBC Monthly and Met Office. Let's see if this trend toward colder weather continues!?
What's different about this is that we have a strong Greenland HP block which was what we lacked last winter. Also it's very early in the season to be seeing such a block of 1045mb over Greenland is it not? Usually is more common in Jan or Feb?
Cold spell looking more and more likely - perhaps even leading to deep cold further down the line. 15/16 Wednesday followed by maybe 10 deg drop by Saturday. North could have some snow by the weekend!
Certainly the ECM 12z ensemble suite has moved decisively towards an extended cold spell tonight - but of course it could flip again in the medium range.
The main cluster predicts maxima of around 4-5C.
Models are looking not too bad re the chances of the cold spell on the face if it, but I would urge a degree of caution after all that has happened in the past week. As others have said in recent days, we can only really start being confident about a cold spell being likely once it comes within the T92/T120 range in the model output.
If the models are still looking promising in this regard come next weekend, I'll start to feel a bit more confident.
Models are looking not too bad re the chances of the cold spell on the face if it, but I would urge a degree of caution after all that has happened in the past week. As others have said in recent days, we can only really start being confident about a cold spell being likely once it comes within the T92/T120 range in the model output.If the models are still looking promising in this regard come next weekend, I'll start to feel a bit more confident.
Next weekend? If the models are right then the cold will already be here by then!
GFS 00Z still going to an almost nationwide snowfall on Saturday: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=108&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type
Next weekend? If the models are right then the cold will already be here by then! GFS 00Z still going to an almost nationwide snowfall on Saturday: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=108&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type
Northward shift compared to yesterday's runs.
The Highlands have done well for snow already with several bouts down to 300m. Yesterday there were images of widespread snow North of Perth. Not many TWO members up there though!
oops should have said more snow!