In small increments the outlook continues to look increasingly colder for the UK, with an impressive close cluster of ENS members showing 850s well below the long term mean going forward.
Then we have the small matter of Saturday and GFS and UKM developing a runner that zips across the south (ECM not so keen but this might be the chart time intervals). Snow likely across high ground especially of Wales and n England.

Certainly the output has continued to increase the probability of an extended colder spell. My reading of the charts is that for most of the country it won’t be especially cold: mostly 850s no lower than -4/-5 and 500-1,000 thicknesses rarely in the 520s.  That’s a recipe for cold rain without elevation.

Saturday does look to have some potential if that LP forms and depending on its track. But overall for lowland England I think expectations should be kept quite modest at the moment.

 

Northward shift compared to yesterday's runs.

Only of the most intense core. It would be more accurate to say the area shown to see snow has grown.

 

Certainly the output has continued to increase the probability of an extended colder spell. My reading of the charts is that for most of the country it won’t be especially cold: mostly 850s no lower than -4/-5 and 500-1,000 thicknesses rarely in the 520s.  That’s a recipe for cold rain without elevation.

Saturday does look to have some potential if that LP forms and depending on its track. But overall for lowland England I think expectations should be kept quite modest at the moment.

Indeed, for those around the Pennines and usual areas  the weekend looks promising for the white stuff, for the rest just another variation of rain. Going forward I’m not so sure the displaced Azores high will have much stamina and would expect the jet to ride over the top and sink it southwards again.

There is an element of exctiement when you see heavy rain... then occasionally see a snow flake...

Then another... then you check on here and a few people are saying "is it me - or is it trying to snow"....

then as the day wears on the rain does indeed turn to snow

Love those rain to snow events.  Boxing day 2014.  I had completely discounted us being near the sea of geting ay... only to get a text from my brother saying it was snowing at Goodison park at the everton game.

Indeed, for those around the Pennines and usual areas  the weekend looks promising for the white stuff, for the rest just another variation of rain. Going forward I’m not so sure the displaced Azores high will have much stamina and would expect the jet to ride over the top and sink it southwards again.

Using experience of the last 30 years I would agree, but…..... the jet is and has been for several months, more often than not, taking a WNW to ESE route over the Atlantic and has not been an 'express train from Bermuda', heading to the Arctic Ocean. The synoptics, imo, are more representative of the 60's and 70's, rather than the last 30 years.

 

 

 

 

There is an element of exctiement when you see heavy rain... then occasionally see a snow flake...

 

Then another... then you check on here and a few people are saying "is it me - or is it trying to snow"....

 

then as the day wears on the rain does indeed turn to snow

 

 

Love those rain to snow events.  Boxing day 2014.  I had completely discounted us being near the sea of geting ay... only to get a text from my brother saying it was snowing at Goodison park at the everton game.

 

 

 

Only of the most intense core. It would be more accurate to say the area shown to see snow has grown.

Looking at the meteociel charts, I'd say it shows more ppn, but also where that is snow has shifted north. That trend has continued in the 06z.

Indeed, but last November was also full of wonderful synoptics if my memeory serves me right and we all know how that ended up PW. Call me overcautious but until we see true heights over Greenland which are more central based than west then I’ll remain slightly negative in viewing the model output for now. The continuing modelling of a lowering of height around the Azores is most encouraging though.

As a matter of interest, I just looked at this -

Not a regular observer, but, I don't recall seeing 8 troughs before, observed or forecast,……… over the last 30 years, we have seen plenty of 3 and 4 troughs, with one of the northern aimed branches being the jet propelled 'express train from Bermuda', heading to the Arctic Ocean. This is the difference.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_99_4.png

That could produce some snow down to low levels with a bit of luck. A bit far out to talk about specifics though (particularly given the ECM),

Pretty much over my house!

Which, at 5 days out almost always means it won't be on the day.

 

Only of the most intense core. It would be more accurate to say the area shown to see snow has grown.

Yes, I'm meant to be going mountain biking in the Welsh borders on Saturday. Could be some interesting conditions!

06Z brings another round of snow, for the south this time!

06Z brings another round of snow, for the south this time!

 

 

Lovely for all in the south but so so long away and won't materialise like this but at least there is the potential for it!

Certainly cold enough during the day for it and to add on the wind-chill from the east!?

Arpege 00z has snow in the south east on Sat am:

P13, please.