Thanks for the informative posts Quantum and Matty. Is it not common that depressions arriving from this direction tend to via more Northeasterly

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Here is another one of Tropical Storm Grace

Now Grace officially entered the territorial waters of Ireland while still a TS.

Now the difference between a TS and a Hurricane is not one of huge significance. A TS with hurricane force winds is a hurricane, the main thing is getting a barotropic system that close to the UK. If its happened once (and its happened arguably three times if you include Debbie and Faith) it can happen again.

Landfall has never happened in the UK though, but to me this proves its possible.

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GEFS consensus appears to be a more westerly track, though a stronger storm

Looks like dragging up a mini tropical heatwave in the south east however!

 

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I think I would agree with Q, a true hurricane making landfall in the British Isles is almost impossible, but not quite - just very very unlikely, perhaps happening once in 500-1000 years. Who knows, perhaps it happened in 80AD or sometime in distant past.

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Then how do you explain Tropical storm Grace which was at the same latitude as Devon when it finally transitioned just to the south of Ireland?

Or Hurricane Faith that transitioned near the Fareo islands? Or Hurricane Vince over Spain?

 

Cold water is not an irreconcilable problem in the same way landfall is. Tropical storm grace actually formed over 20C water. Medicanes, which are tropical like systems can form over water as cold as 15C.

Convection can overcome cold water provided the upper troposphere is also very cold. If you look at Emanual's basic theory the real thing that matters is the vertical instability; so cold upper tropospheric anomalies can compensate for cold SSTs although the convection will be muted due to a lower tropopause.

Cold water is not the reason the UK doesn't get hurricanes, Wind shear is a far bigger issue but if Ophelia can get a bit of distance between itself and the trough then it will take more time to disrupt its inner core.

 

 

Its very easily explained. None of them made it to these shores as a hurricane. Two of them you mention weren’t even close and the other is a disputed TS (see French objection) so not even a hurricane or anything like it. 

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Its very easily explained. None of them made it to these shores as a hurricane. Two of them you mention weren’t even close and the other is a disputed TS (see French objection) so not even a hurricane or anything like it. 

Faith was actually to the north of the UK which one would suggest is an even bigger achievement. Grace is not disputed in its status as a TS (at least by anyone whose opinion matters). In fact Grace was almost a hurricane.

And the only difference between a TS and a Hurricane is wind strength, they are both barotropic systems. 

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Faith was actually to the north of the UK which one would suggest is an even bigger achievement. Grace is not disputed in its status as a TS (at least by anyone whose opinion matters). In fact Grace was almost a hurricane.

And the only difference between a TS and a Hurricane is wind strength, they are both barotropic systems. 

The only difference between a  dog and a cat is that one is a dog and one is a cat. Not sure what your point is here. They are different. 

Anyway, we’re never going to agree on this. If it happens one day (which it never has) I’ll concede. Until then we’ll have to agree to disagree.  

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Did the October '87 storm not have hurricane force winds associated with it? It certainly left devastation in it's wake across large swathes of the country. Remember Sevenoaks - whcih over night becaome One Oak.

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Was the Great Storm of 1703 a hurricane ? In many accounts it is described as one.

Was the Great Storm of 1703 a hurricane ? In many accounts it is described as one.

 

According to Wikipedia it was an extratropical cyclone so had transitioned from tropical status.

 

Let's hope Ophelia isn't as bad eh?

 

The only difference between a  dog and a cat is that one is a dog and one is a cat. Not sure what your point is here. They are different. 

Anyway, we’re never going to agree on this. If it happens one day (which it never has) I’ll concede. Until then we’ll have to agree to disagree.  

No its more like a TS is a pug and a Hurricane is a Pomeranian and an extratropical cyclone is a cat. 

A TS is just a slightly weaker hurricane, although having a TS landfall in the UK would only be marginally less awe inspiring. It would still make meteorological history. 

 

FYI Pug and Pomeranian are pretty much the only dog breeds I know. I like them because they look cute. 

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Did the October '87 storm not have hurricane force winds associated with it? It certainly left devastation in it's wake across large swathes of the country. Remember Sevenoaks - whcih over night becaome One Oak.

Yes it did but it was definitely not a hurricane. In fact I think you'd struggle to get a more pure baroclinic system. 

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Yes it did but it was definitely not a hurricane. In fact I think you'd struggle to get a more pure baroclinic system. 

It wasn't a hurricane officially, but given the way the press went about it both at the time and then for years afterwards, one could almost have been forgiven for thinking it had been so. How many times have they replayed the opening couple of lines of Michael Fish's infamous forecast from the afternoon before the storm!

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It even featured in the opening ceremony of the London Olympics. Poor Michael Fish will never be able to live it down.

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Regardless of how close Ophelia gets and how tropical it is on closest approach or landfall, I am intrigued by the potential for some degree of 'subsidence warming' ahead of the system; tropical cyclones produce upper-level outflow channels of warm air, which then tend to slow down a little way ahead of the system's track (as the upper-level flow is often the steering flow too) and then subside toward the surface, with consequential warming which can then lead to increased surface temperatures compared to what would usually be taking place under a given setup of airflow and airmass temperatures.

This could give Monday's temperatures a little extra kick upward. What I don't know, helpfully enough, is whether this is already being incorporated into the models... 

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Been a while since I posted on here.

So...

Apart from this weekend's heatwave, next week's hurricane and the chance of first snow at the end of the month, anything interesting to report?

Of course, it'll probably be slightly warm this weekend, a bit breezy next week and slightly below average thereafter but we can dream! 🙂

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No its more like a TS is a pug and a Hurricane is a Pomeranian and an extratropical cyclone is a cat. 

A TS is just a slightly weaker hurricane, although having a TS landfall in the UK would only be marginally less awe inspiring. It would still make meteorological history. 

 

FYI Pug and Pomeranian are pretty much the only dog breeds I know. I like them because they look cute. 

 

Your dog game is strong

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Regardless of how close Ophelia gets and how tropical it is on closest approach or landfall, I am intrigued by the potential for some degree of 'subsidence warming' ahead of the system; tropical cyclones produce upper-level outflow channels of warm air, which then tend to slow down a little way ahead of the system's track (as the upper-level flow is often the steering flow too) and then subside toward the surface, with consequential warming which can then lead to increased surface temperatures compared to what would usually be taking place under a given setup of airflow and airmass temperatures.

This could give Monday's temperatures a little extra kick upward. What I don't know, helpfully enough, is whether this is already being incorporated into the models... 

I still think this is fascinating though. If it looses all its tropical characteristics it might only be the strongest ex-hurricane in a few decades but if it can hold on to them it will be a meteorological first and a once in a lifetime event.

Plus MattyH gets proven wrong which is always a nice bonus. 

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Plus MattyH gets proven wrong which is always a nice bonus. 

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I still think this is fascinating though. If it looses all its tropical characteristics it might only be the strongest ex-hurricane in a few decades but if it can hold on to them it will be a meteorological first and a once in a lifetime event.

Plus MattyH gets proven wrong which is always a nice bonus. 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

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