Time to get the ball rolling for another month, and there are a few questions ahead for this month such as will we finally get to enjoy a much drier high pressure dominated month after such a long run of wet months, or will we just carry on the same old unsettled pattern as before? Another question might be will Bolty manage to avoid having to endure a wettest October on record to go along with his wettest September on record? September certainly brought quite a variation in rainfall totals with a few members recording record high totals. Here, the rainfall came out at around average last month though, and there was even the odd member out there in SE England who recorded a drier than average month.

Most forecasts suggest that this month won't be as wet which means that there will be less chance of anyone recording any massively high totals during this month if those forecasts are correct. That might mean that we have a drier than average month here this time, or it could just mean that the rainfall totals are much more fairly distributed around the country. However it all pans out, this will be be very thread for entering those all important totals during this month and just to kick off, I can confirm that 1.6 mm of rain fell from yesterday's weather system with a further 0.6 mm of rain from some showers during the early hours of this morning. This means that the current running totals for the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 7am this morning are as follows:

Monthly Total For October: 3.2 mm (Expected), 2.2 mm (Actual)

We have now had 2.9% of our average October rainfall so far, so this month is currently 30.2% drier than average.

2017 Autumn Total: 66.9 mm (Expected), 64.2 mm (Actual)

We have had 31.9% of our average autumn rainfall so far, so this autumn is currently 4.0% drier than average.

2017 Yearly Total: 509.0 mm (Expected), 5702 mm (Actual)

We have had 81.0% of our average annual rainfall so far, so this year is currently 12.0% wetter than average.

In a way, this month has started in a similar way to last month with yet another weather system bringing only a small amount of rain, and with most of the rain bypassing here altogether and going elsewhere. Because of that, I am almost certain that the majority of members on this forum will be posting much higher totals than what I have given here once again. The amount of rain which we have had is a little bit more than what we had at the same stage last month, but that doesn't actually make any real difference here since the 1981 to 2010 average October rainfall for the botanic gardens is much higher (the actual value to be precise is 75.6 mm) than the average September rainfall over the same averaging period.

 

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1.7mm on the first day of the month.

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Just 1.1mm from the 1st. 

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0.6mm  Total,,,,,

 

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2.7mm so far. Little bits spread out over the 2 days.

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0.3mm today probably condensation. 

0.9mm Total

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4.3mm from overnight showers, total now at 5.4mm.

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Given GFS is making more of the Thursday rain than the likes of ARPEGE and still looks this 'dry' overall, it seems southerners can enjoy not worrying about rainfall so often over the next 10 days. Different story further north though, particularly in the west - as is typical for the time of year.

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5.8mm for the month so far. We received a little boost from the channel runner yesterday evening. 

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Yesterday ended up being our first completely dry day of the month despite the close proximity of some showers from yesterday afternoon onwards. We then eventually got one of those showers during the early hours of this morning which produced 0.4 mm of rain at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh before a cold front moving down from the north produced a further 1.8 mm of rain later on in the morning. That have given is a total of 2.2 mm of rain so far today which already makes today our wettest day of the month so far.

All of this means that the current running totals at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 9am this morning are as follows:

Monthly Total For October: 8.2 mm (Expected), 4.4 mm (Actual)

We have now had 5.8% of our average October rainfall so far, so this month is currently 46.5% drier than average.

2017 Autumn Total: 71.9 mm (Expected), 66.4 mm (Actual)

We have had 33.0% of our average autumn rainfall so far, so this autumn is currently 7.7% drier than average.

2017 Yearly Total: 514.0 mm (Expected), 572.4 mm (Actual)

We have had 81.3% of our average annual rainfall so far, so this year is currently 11.4% wetter than average.

So this morning's rainfall has exactly doubled our monthly total so far, from where we were at, at the same time yesterday. So far, this month is actually following on from where we left off in September because although it is currently drier than average in terms of the actual rainfall amounts, we are once again ahead of average in terms of the number of rain days. According to the latest forecasts as well, we are not even finished with this morning's weather front as it is expected to return northwards for a while later on due to a secondary depression forming along it. That in turn means that the totals which I have just given, aren't even likely to be the final totals for today.

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It's been absolutely hammering it down this evening, with 21.1mm falling in the last six hours. The October total so far now lies at 23.9mm to the end of the 4th.

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It's been absolutely hammering it down this evening, with 21.1mm falling in the last six hours. The October total so far now lies at 23.9mm to the end of the 4th.

So, might it be two record months in a row in Failsworth West after all? I don't think that I am going to be able to come anywhere close to challenging those sorts of totals here in Edinburgh but nevertheless, we are building up what is still quite a big total by our own standards in this part of the world with 4mm of rain being reported at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during the hour between 10pm and 11pm alone with a further 1.8mm between 11pm and midnight.

So far, we have had a total of 10mm of rain from this event during the last five hours, giving us a final total for the day of 12.2mm. Even before this event, we had already had our wettest day of the month so far but had it stayed dry for the rest of the day, I'm sure that this record would have been beaten later on since there will be other days during this month when we will have more than 2.2mm of rain. This additional rain which we have had though, means that we now have a final figure for the day which will probably now, be a lot harder to beat during the rest of the month. I will give my usual summary later on this morning but for now, I can already say that we have now already had enough rain from this event to not only make it wetter than average during this month so far, but also wetter than average for this autumn as things stand just now.

The good news for you is that I have checked the rain radar map and can confirm that the cold front from that system has already cleared away from Liverpool and so, that clearance should reach Manchester from the west fairly soon. For here though, it is a different story as it is still absolutely hammering down with rain as I write so that even without knowing any of today's figures, I already know that today will go down as yet another rain day which will then leave us with still only the one completely dry day during this month so far, regardless of what happens in the other 23 hours which make up today. In fact, the rain radar map shows that we are right on the triple point where the cold and returning warm fronts meet and join together to form what will end up being the resulting wrap-around occlusion just to the north of the main area of low pressure, and that means that the rain is likely to be here for a while yet. That in turn means that it will be interesting to see what our rainfall totals are like at the end of this event.

 

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so far this month 5.6mm

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Well, this has been quite a period for rainfall in this part of the world. We had already had 2.2 mm of rain during yesterday from yesterday morning's rainfall, going in last night's big rain event which had already made yesterday our wettest day of the month so far. That was from a cold front moving down from the north, but I did say that this weather front would return northwards and when it did so, it did so big time. To be fair, that weather was never front far away from us to the south at any time during yesterday.

It even flirted with us at around 5pm by very briefly coming northwards to produce a little bit of rain here, although this wasn't enough for anything to be recorded at either of my two nearest stations at Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. That was roughly the time when the forecasts had said that this system would reach us so when it then moved away southwards for a while once again at that time, it was starting to look as though all of this might end up being a complete non-event with everything being much further south than what was forecast, and with yet another area of rain bypassing this part of the world altogether.

In the end though, we weren't let down and it was from around 7pm onwards that this system finally arrived. The timing of that was a couple of hours behind schedule according to the forecast but when this system did arrive, we probably ended up getting more rain from that than what had been forecast. The rain was really heavy from 7pm onwards and then, didn't stop once until it all finally cleared away by 4am this morning. I can therefore break this summary down into two different parts since this event was technically, spread over two different days (yesterday and today).

I can report that 10 mm of rain fell from that system between 7pm and midnight so that when this is added to the rain which we had already had yesterday morning, that gave a total of 12.2 mm for yesterday. On top of that, a further 5 mm of rain fell from this system during the early hours of this morning from midnight onwards. That in itself, also beat the old record for the wettest day of the month so far which we had going into yesterday and that now makes today, the second wettest day of the month so far (a record which was already set as early as 1am). Overall, we had a total of 15 mm of rain from this system over the course of these two days and this means that the current running totals for the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 8am this morning are as follows:

Monthly Total For October: 10.6 mm (Expected), 19.4 mm (Actual)

We have now had 25.7% of our average October rainfall so far, so this month is currently 83.6% wetter than average.

2017 Autumn Total: 74.3 mm (Expected), 81.4 mm (Actual)

We have had 40.4% of our average autumn rainfall so far, so this autumn is currently 9.6% wetter than average.

2017 Yearly Total: 516.4 mm (Expected), 587.4 mm (Actual)

We have had 83.4% of our average annual rainfall so far, so this year is currently 13.8% wetter than average.

After all of that rain this morning, we are now in a colder NW air mass which could bring the odd shower during today. That means that any additions to today's total are likely to be very small and it is more than likely that what we have already, will be the final total for today. Beyond that, the outlook is still rather unsettled in this part of the world but with high pressure never all that far away, any amounts of rain which we get from the next couple of weather systems are expected to be very small compared to what we saw last night.

The models are all indicating that it may well become more generally unsettled again later on this month which would increase the rainfall rates once again but for now, there isn't a massive amount of rain in the shorter term forecasts and that means that it might not be long before those drier than average anomalies appear in my summaries once again.

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Now at 23.7mm, so well above average at this stage of the month.

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3 rain days this month but amounts have been small thus far. Total is 6.2mm. 

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It is a lovely sunny morning here in Edinburgh with not a single cloud in sight, let alone any sort of rainfall. Yet for some reason according to weathercast.co.uk (which is part of Meteogroup), there has been 0.2 mm of rain recorded at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during the hour between 7am and 8am. To me, that can't possibly be real and proper rainfall since there aren't even any clouds around and there also isn't any wind which could have brought in any rain from anywhere else nearby (as is common when we are in a showery air stream). This 'rainfall' can therefore, only have arisen from condensation which might have got into the rain gauges there. This is something which could have happened quite easily because with the cold air which is in place just now, the relative humidity is very high just now (this was 98.5% at the same station during the same hour) which probably means that there is quite a heavy dew around, and possibly even a touch of ground frost. I could see how it would therefore be quite easy for that to run into the rain gauges and produce what is actually a false "rainfall" total.

If anyone else can shed a light as how this might have happened, I will be more than happy to hear about that. Because that is enough to scupper our chances once again of seeing a completely dry day due to the fact that we have an actual rainfall measurement, I will probably now need to redefine what I would refer to as a 'rain' day and since the long-term 1981-2010 averages which are produced by the Met Office go by the number of days where 1 mm or more of rain has fallen, it might actually be better defining a rain day as a day where 1 mm or more has fallen on any day, and that is what I will be doing from now on in order to prevent this kind of scenario from happening again. Anyway, this has produced a change in the current running totals which for the botanic gardens as at 8am this morning using my new definition of a rain day are as follows:

Monthly Total For October: 13.0 mm (Expected), 19.6 mm (Actual)
Number of Rain Days in October so far: 2.1 (Expected), 3 (Actual)

We have now had 25.9% of our average October rainfall and 24.2% of our average number of rain days in October so far, so this month is currently 50.7% wetter than average according to the actual rainfall amounts and 40.6% wetter than average according to the number of rain days.

2017 Autumn Total: 76.7 mm (Expected), 81.6 mm (Actual)
Number of Rain Days so far this autumn: 12.3 (Expected), 16 (Actual)

We have had 40.5% of our average autumn rainfall so far and 47.3% of our average number of rain days for this autumn so far, so this autumn is currently 6.4% wetter than average according to the actual rainfall totals and 29.7% wetter than average according to the number of rain days.

2017 Yearly Total: 518.8 mm (Expected), 587.6 mm (Actual)

We have had 83.4% of our average annual rainfall so far, so this year is currently 13.3% wetter than average.

In due course, I will then be able to report the number of rain days for an entire year, once I have enough available data for that.

EDIT:

Isn't it funny as well, that we can have a scenario which I have described above where rainfall is recorded without any rain actually falling and yet, we get other situations which are more common such as what happened at 5pm on Wednesday when rain does fall to the extent of actually being quite heavy at one point in time, yet with no rainfall actually being recorded from that.

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2.4mm so far.

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3.3mm Total

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0.4mm last night
Total 11.2mm

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