http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0

Gfs has anoyher go at building Mid atlantic HP,.This one looks  like being pushed away as LP moves out NE seaboard.

Morning All-

very limited time on the run up to xmas-

Some good news from higher up in the strat - the zonal peak is in 2/3 days @ 58M/S then we see a deceleration curve on a similar par with the increase curve over the last 3 weeks-

http://weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie.png 

So the mean drops to average around Jan 1-3, so potential for more MLBs thereafter-

The purple runs depict the latest CFS which has dropped the SSW signal for Jan ( unsure if glosea has done the same )

So as it stands, as highlighted in the long post from the other day- A full greenland high is still unlikely - although an atlantic high / Scandi High combo will certainly be 'available' at least from the new year-

1 notable interest at 192-216 is the jet exiting the NE US splits NE & SE instead of the usual immediate toppler NE-

If we get enough energy going SE that will help keep the high elevated towards Scandi at day 10 -12 like the 00z, if theres more pumped NE expect the 06z to be the favourite...

Post that- continued focus on the strat charts to see where that deceleration bottoms out...

And good support for HP development at New year from GEFS with 80:20  HP:Zonal,.

Within this a dozen Atlantic HP options split between Higher North and lower north including some strong northerlies>As might be expected out at 360 h the pattern is nearer 50:50 but come cold perts survive. 

Hope this helps expain the various DECIDER iterations.

http://presentations.copernicus.org/EMS2016-127_presentation.pdf

regards

Steve

Many different options amongst the 06z GEFS..

Some crackers but also some far milder..

The SLP ensemble for Reykjavik shows a huge, huge range.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Reykjavik_ens.png

Caution required..

As TomC mentioned, good support for a Northerly in the New Year. 

Report in today's i paper that yesterday temps at the North Pole were -4C (normal ca -30C) - so a northerly might not deliver the expected freeze

There is currently the potential that pressure may build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, and this would bring a higher chance of seeing a colder interlude with northerly winds.

Yes but that's right at the end of the period of their forecast .We are currently seeing something in the charts at the end of this year

12z GFS rolling out and it's there's plenty of Atlantic ridging but less chance of a genuine Greenland High.

Not as good as the 06z but swings like this are of course expected. 

I do wonder, if it is going to happen, if it will need a "second bite of the cherry" (tying in with the Met Office forecast of the period circa 7th January).

Not having it this time around

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122312/gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Still lots of fun in FI though.

There will be plenty of variations in the detail over the next few days, but the trend is very much in evidence - high pressure building to our west or NW. 

And that's the point JB , I should imagine there are other options with the ENS

According to the 12z run on the mighty GFS model, one 1045 mb high pressure is then replaced by another 1045 mb high over the next ten days.

Looks like a settled New Year Weekend are on the cards.

Indeed, last night's Carlsberg run was a bit like going out on a first date with a full figured woman. You get her kit off only to find out she's wearing falsies.

or on this case you don't get her kit off at all. 

Fairly benign settled spell perhaps on offer

Some decent options floating around in the ENS

Yup a few interesting members. Couple of ones go rather cold at the surface briefly in deep FI

Overall and the ens aren't a million miles away from what they've been persistently showing in FI - HP dominated, minority zonal with a few genuinely cold options. The main difference now is there's more of a cluster of west or north west based HP options rather than the more scattered HP signal that had been showing.

Not too far off what Ian F has been commenting on in terms of longer range Glosea and ECM signals.

Still all a mirage and all that as we're in a locked in zonal pattern until the middle or end of January at best