If charts like that are still around this time next week, i may, just may get a little animated, only a little mind, as i have a dodgy back, and quite a serious healh condition!

Stunning 00z GFS op! Was not expecting that.

00z ECM not too bad either (although the northerly isn't as clean).

The momentum is building to something colder today, but as many have already said, major caution is required. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

here are the two solutions at 240h. Positioning of the HP critical.In my view more likely to get the Mid Atlantic HP north westerly than the GH northerly>so often the cold northerly shown on the model ouput  becomes a glancong blow to th east of the UK.

GEFS 0h at 2490 h shows strong suort for HP over zonal 75:25.Within the ensembles shift  of HP to  the Atlantic with 7 members going this way plus couple oh Greenland HP,s as per GFS op.

Usual reservations but signs of the Euroslug being relpaced.

GEFS00z offering some support for the GFS00z op run. Certainly worth keeping an eye in the next few days.

Where is that HP off on the ECM 240 ................the 264 chart could have been a beauty

The GFS run is excellent in bringing a proper clean northerly although it's worth remembering that the majority of the U.K. Doesn't do well for snow with such a set up, however, I don't care as the clean, Arctic air would be wonderful after the foul Euro drabness of the last few weeks.

If the GFS verified I suggest a TWO New Year meeting at Doc's house in Aberdeen where snow would be plenty, getting there however might be an issue.

Got any spare rooms Doc?

Andy

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850greenland0.png?cb

Greenland ENS show much confusion

Whose going to be sneaking away to view the charts on Xmas day!!

It's beginning to feel a lot like............................. a roller coaster!!!

The GFS 00z ensembles for Aberdeen have firmed up on a potential cold spell from ~1 Jan with both the Op and the Control in the freezer. Looks more than a here today gone tomorrow scenario, but clearly way too far out to have any confidence in the detail or indeed the outcome. What we can say is that there has been a marked shift in the New Year model projections over the last 24 hours.

Many more runs needed but it's the trend which is important. The model runs over the next few days will be particularly interesting. 

Well, the range is T192-240 at the moment, which is some considerable way off and subject to a lot of change...

Some lovely looking eye candy on the GFS not so much on the ECM which wants to flatten to  the upstream pattern somewhat, still better than heights to the SE though. Hopefully the MetO DECIDER model ( No idea what that is ) which ipicked up on the trend and is now being shown by the GFS, is bang on the money.

I have it in my head that Fergusson once told us that DECIDER is not so much a model, but more a programme which separates any particular model ensemble into precise clusters by percentage. Basically a way of analysing the numerical aspect of the Numerical Weather Predictions more accurately than just eyeballing the maps which they generate.

But this may be a load of misremembered b*ll*cks on my part, so, as usual, would be glad to be corrected.

Indeed. The usual caveats apply, namely cross-model agreement and ensemble support.  We're a long way from both at the moment: indeed even the GFS parallel doesn't offer support. It doesn't require much to change in the evolution to end up back in the same place, ie high pressure close by and either everything shunted east or the pattern flattened out again.

Plus, as you say, even if the long wave pattern evolves as shown by GFS the risk of unhelpful short waves remains.

looking ok at +174

GFS still consistent with this theme

Feels chilly for most

This run looks like toppling

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122306/gfsnh-0-216.png?6

Might topple into scandi and deliver a potent easterly for the south....the 00z was also a toppler

Forgive my ignorance, but why does it look like toppling? Seems to be a decent build of HP to the West ridging well into Greenland with no evidence of the jet riding over the top. The only negative that I see is the perpetual highish heights to the South which might prevent the best of the cold air digging South.

I'm not arguing with your interpretation - just curious as to why it looks like toppling?