I sometimes wonder if it would be better if the available model outlooks only went out to 5 to 7 days at most. At least that way, we wouldn't be as continuously disappointed when they show something nice, only to be inevitably snatched away again. Back in the good old days before the internet, we relied on TV and radio forecasts that usually only went out to 3 to 5 days, yet, we still managed to get some interesting weather on a regular basis! Today, we have access to forecasts out to 2 weeks or more, yet still end up with the least interesting weather set ups that are conceivably possible.

The GFS, UKMO and ECMWF 12z are throwing the same ropes Jetstream to our North and NW with mostly Blocking High Pressure over Central Mid N Atlantic and West NW Europe plus for the UK.

The Zonal Train shows it's flappy wings on a SW to NE flow, then bending to our NE thus the situation remains mostly feature less apart from a rear up West Northerly cutting down across our East and especially NE- though even in the Mid Latitude locales the slack limbo high pressure and it's reluctance to allow any cold NW to SE intrusion not really hitting to the NE parts of UK.

I am very used to staying restrained, when I see nothing significant at the day 6-10 range, the 12z big three are getting confused, but the reality is that we will stay on the less cold side of the Jetstream and Low Pressure tracks, and get sustained Bartlett-Azores High if they continue showing this upto the end of this month.

Hopefully again the milder camp will have their hands up and the chances of any cold weather is expected to vanish or keep being projected that way- look way up to our NNW and NE!.

Pitter Patter~>.😂🕶🌞☀️.

Reasonable model consensus on HP somewhere to our W or NW at 240h

However, we are obviously being led up the garden path, because the upstream, downstream, in my lady's chamber, signals and teleconnections are all wrong and the zonal train will battering down the door well before then

Next month, I will have been a poster on TWO for 15 years. I'm now beginning to think that 15 years may be enough.

I remain grateful to Brian for hosting and developing this community and respect his desire to maintain it as a broad church. But the blatant trolling and deliberate attempts to wind-up the majority of sensible posters in this thread with utter nonsense that has nothing to do with discussion of the NWP output is on the verge of becoming too much.

Members who have served bans in the past and have now returned, have done so, I presume, after promises not to repeat past behaviour. But it is clear that in some cases those promises were hollow. 

The outlook is clearly blocked and then there is a greater than 50% chance of a northerly outbreak which may extend beyond two or three days. That is what the NWP shows pretty clearly at the moment in consensus. It is not 'zonality', 'mobility' or any of the other dross phrases dolled out in an attempt to upset the majority of serious posters here.

I sincerely hope that the trolling in this thread stops right now.

The funny thing is that some were saying broadly the same thing back in early December, when the models first began to back away from the idea of a notable cold spell thing month. Yet, all we've had is a couple of weeks of basically being in no-man's land between the atlantic and a continental influence, and them a more mobile spell which commened earlier this week circa Tuesday

It looks odds-on now that this spell of zonality is going to be rather shorter in duration than one or two here were predicting not so long ago!

One thing I have learned- there are some really bored and lonely people out there. 

Judging by the reactions, my attempt at satire obviously failed completely 

Not at all! Your satire hit the spot - I am in complete agreement with you.

Me too Rob. I don't want to derail the topic too much but thought that I needed to respond to a couple of the points.

I suspect many sympathise with the views re. the trolls on here but in the past when we have tried to act impartially there are always a few people that come along and say the moderation/ors have a cold bias. This is simply not the case and any trolling, especially where there has been a track record over the years, is currently very much in our sights.

If it continues to be a problem with people posting for effect, or repetitive/off topic melodrama then the appropriate action will be taken. However as this is the season of goodwill and stuff I would like to see those "wind up merchants" take the action before we have to, because if they don't, we will.

Hear hear, Michael.

Totally off topic

Then a ban should be a ban end of.

It would be a shame to see Justin follow in Matty's shoes

Joe B a s t a r d i sees mega-cold on the way for Western Europe. Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/BigJoe******i/status/812405629465882625

ECM en MSLP spread for Ikeq Island:

******i is a well known psycho-babble cold ramper who has bigged up more damp squibs than Ive had hot dinners.

Well the ens look a little chilly from day 11 but "Ice Age Now!" is over-egging it somewhat.

Ive waited for some of Joe's promised cold in the past................................still waiting

I don't think he is very good when forecasting for the UK at all I'm afraid

I remember those Joe B video forecasts that used to get posted in here back in the old days, his style was certainly unique. Was it Tom Presutti who used to link them into this thread? Anyway did not know Joe was still forecasting I thought he had left the business.....I would love him to be right. Definitely some interesting runs on the ECM ensembles posted by Rob N. A return to the frosts or early December would be a most welcome start and looking at where the high will sit we should get some, it's where it goes after that could be interesting!

PS Justin and Rob re. previous page I completely agree you are both spot on.......

Hmmmmm I wouldn't know about that BUT its very very difficult to forecast for the UK, it most be one of the most difficult climates of all to get right.

I should imagine the states is a tad easier

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122318/gfsnh-0-228.png?18

D Bett is expecting a straight Northerly at the start of the year

Agreed and I used to rely on countryfile forecast and weather teletext forecasts for here via German teletext on old Astra channels.  They had good info including sea temps and we still using most of our models charts here via from German's weather site Wetterzentrale.   Agreed fully that what ever the models had been showing mostly resulted in less interesting weather in reality which cause me to ease weather observation record data in 2012, but continue to record Nicosia since 1989, Death Valley and Toronto data from 2005.  I still view the ensembles for here daily and it showing some mild weather until the New Year so really hardly anything interesting to note down but look more on the drier side.