Model Output Discussion 22/12/16 09:35 Onwards>>>· Page 11

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 20:09:19

So much for the numerous predictions there were from some quarters a week or two back which predicted that once the atlantic broke through this month, we'd be looking at at least 6 weeks or so of atlantic dominated weather or even something akin to last winter. I wonder what's happened to all that!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter

Don't count your chickens....

We should all know when it comes to getting a cold spell in this country, all the stars need to align

However, I will concede that the chances of a cold outbreak have increased today

Edited by moderator 24 December 2016 20:34:21 | Reason: Not specified

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 20:35:21

#252

Don't count your chickens....

We should all know when it comes to getting a cold spell in this country, all the stars need to align

However, I will concede that the chances of a cold outbreak have increased today

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

LOL

The chances certainly have improved. Here's the ECM SLP/500 hPa ensemble mean chart for T+192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016122412/EDH1-192.GIF

That's pretty solid support for a split PV and heights rising over the Pole. The spread chart shows there's not too much disagreement across the perturbations even at that stage.

Edited by user 24 December 2016 20:37:47 | Reason: Not specified

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 20:41:30

#253

Busy night for him and a sleigh.

Originally Posted by: Arcus

It is

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

roger63
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 20:48:02

#254

Let's hope that the jam tomorrow from gifs in fi becomes jam on the day,particularly pert 9. A very happy xmas to you all,

White Meadows
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 20:52:41

#255

Busy night for him and a sleigh.

Interesting signs into the New Year in the models, backed up to some extent by the firming up of the MetO outlooks. I'm sure the usual suspects will point to a lack of data on the Xmas period runs, but if memory serves Darren (Retron) did an analysis on this a few years back and apart from a slight dip in Aviation obs, there wasn't a big difference?

Anyway, hope all have a great day tomorrow & merry Xmas!

Originally Posted by: Arcus

Yes young Jason always banged the drum on this one until Retron finally put the theory in perspective with some helpful stats.

nsrobins
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 21:10:07

#256

ECM pulls a Christmas cracker.

Now get off the internet you sad geeks and enjoy Xmas Eve.

I however await the 18Z GFS for another notch in the right direction.

Happy Christmas to all on TWO and if winter isn't your thing, come chasing with me on the Great Plains in May where you'll see weather that will blow your mind.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Phil G
Guest

24 December 2016 21:25:33

#257

Not long before the last "reliable" GFS run, before the suspect Christmas period data omission.

If it was that inaccurate, when the full data became available again, wouldn't that new run mean a lot of changes to charts. Could mean something more major could be happening right under our noses, or most likely the other way of course.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 21:36:58

#258

Not long before the last "reliable" GFS run, before the suspect Christmas period data omission.
If it was that inaccurate, when the full data became available again, wouldn't that new run mean a lot of changes to charts. Could mean something more major could be happening right under our noses, or most likely the other way of course.

Originally Posted by: Phil G

As someone mentioned earlier, the allegations of a shortage of data are largely unsubstantiated. Obviously there are fewer aircraft flying on Xmas Day but I don't think it's a major issue and it doesn't affect the 00z.

18z rolling and out to T+30 no significant changes....

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

nsrobins
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 21:49:24

#259

As someone mentioned earlier, the allegations of a shortage of data are largely unsubstantiated. Obviously there are fewer aircraft flying on Xmas Day but I don't think it's a major issue and it doesn't affect the 00z.

18z rolling and out to T+30 no significant changes....

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

You are correct my Maian spirit. The conjecture that NWP suffers from significant data shortage at Christmas is largely insubstantial. There is no evidence to the contrary.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 21:55:24

#260

You are correct my Maian spirit. The conjecture that NWP suffers from significant data shortage at Christmas is largely insubstantial. There is no evidence to the contrary.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

I regret that my powers don't extend to influencing global pressure patterns....

Have a great Xmas, Neil.

Ps: I don't think anyone's commented on the last two GFS parallel runs. the 06z delivered the coldest westerlies I've ever seen, with snow across the entire North Atlantic in FI; it was almost the same on the 12z....

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 22:34:03

#261

Oh dear - The colder snap only lasts half a day in the north and never really reaches the south:

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 22:53:35

#262

Brilliant. The 18z goes the ECM route, with an Azores low, and eventually approx. 524 dam air even in my back yard. You should like this, Tally.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Gooner
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 22:56:34

#263

Yep , another good one from GFS ..................lets hope we see more of the same in the next few days

Merry Xmas all

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 22:57:17

#264

Happy Christmas! Shame it's FI, but the trend continues!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122418/gfs-1-384.png?18

St. Sampson

Guernsey

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 22:57:23

#265

Topples, but gets even colder as it does so. Happy Christmas!

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Rob K
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 23:12:51

#266

Topples, but gets even colder as it does so. Happy Christmas!

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

if that deep low to the west kept heading east-south-east... hello Jan 79!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Phil G
Guest

24 December 2016 23:19:39

#267

Oh my good gord.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif

moomin75
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 23:24:41

#268

Oh my good gord.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G

Missing data??? 😂😂😂

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

White Meadows
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 23:24:42

#269

18z deffo on the brandy...
Dare I say, it looks similar to 27 December 1962, even from this point: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

Edited by user 24 December 2016 23:26:01 | Reason: Not specified

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 23:25:02

#270

Brilliant. The 18z goes the ECM route, with an Azores low, and eventually approx. 524 dam air even in my back yard. You should like this, Tally.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

Such a long way off but so far the medium range GFS has been accurate unlike the operational CFS V2 etc. Let's hope this or something similar materialises.

In FI we have daytime maxes of -2c to +3c, low pressure systems moving down from Svalbard / Arctic into the SE to give a spell of snow showers along with an north easterly wind etc!? -

We need to see a few more runs like this to be convinced.

This one could be just as cold if not colder:

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 23:28:35

#271

There were 4x minus 10C runs on the 12z London 850s, if anyone's keeping an unofficial minus-10 watch.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

24 December 2016 23:30:00

#272

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20161224/18/384/maxtemp.png All of the UK at or below freezing by day and well below freezing by night with a wind-chill whilst SE Europe (Greece etc) warms up and we cool down!