Ecm is a stunner  and yes it's Jam tmrw stuff at 240h but this chart at 144h is fantastic and is exactly what we need with the Scandi trough so far west.

 Is it chrimbo lack of data who knows but it's nice to look at.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Marcus, not aimed at you two by the way 😜

Interesting offerings this morning for coldies, if such output is around on Thursday and edges into the reliable timeframe then all to play for.  A caveat though, with the struggles of modelling decembers HP we could be in for a dose of realism, for any cold shot is dependant upon the positioning of the HP and let's be honest nailing that down could well prove problematic until very close to the time. 

"Worth noting that UKMO prognosis for January has shifted now. They suspect PNA may be influential; GloSea5 has moved over weekend to suggest anticyclonic/blocked regime will dominate throughout Jan, with milder interludes only occasionally and temperatures generally lower than average. Although severe cold is still considered unlikely, they note that currently around 25% of yesterday's EC EPS members and several GloSea5 members allow reorientation of the block (principally expected to the W) to shift such as to bring a Pc flow. GloSea5 keeps the broadly +ve MSLP anomalies all the way to the end of January, maintaining a colder theme compared to climatology.

Deja vu, or on the money this month? We watch with interest... but gloves & scarves ready from next weekend (at least that initial bit of the story comes with high confidence, albeit cold front timing has wide error margin of 12-24hrs)."

Very nice update for coldies by Ian Fergusson on Netweather.

Worth noting that UKMO prognosis for January has shifted now. They suspect PNA may be influential; GloSea5 has moved over weekend to suggest anticyclonic/blocked regime will dominate throughout Jan, with milder interludes only occasionally and temperatures generally lower than average. Although severe cold is still considered unlikely, they note that currently around 25% of yesterday's EC EPS members and several GloSea5 members allow reorientation of the block (principally expected to the W) to shift such as to bring a Pc flow. GloSea5 keeps the broadly +ve MSLP anomalies all the way to the end of January, maintaining a colder theme compared to climatology.

Deja vu, or on the money this month? We watch with interest... but gloves & scarves ready from next weekend (at least that initial bit of the story comes with high confidence, albeit cold front timing has wide error margin of 12-24hrs).

You beat me to it Gavin. 

Coldies should feel optimistic this morning nice output from the big 3 at 144h after that who knows but a possibility now of a significant cold spell on the horizon. 

The PNA article pddidy linked to suggests negative PNA has a correlation with HP setting up over Scandi and broadly below average temps over western Europe. (I assume we're talking about PNA moving in to a negative 'phase').

Only one part of the jigsaw of course and I'd tend to view as useful  (for cold) rather than anything else as there's so much else that needs to play ball.

In terms of this morning's models they're again interesting, as has been said. I prefer ECM to GFS although given how unusual it is to get more than a 2-3 day cold spell from ridging Atlantic based HPs I'd tend to side with GFS at this point.

I do rather like the 00z control though although I suspect the NE Scotland contingent wouldn't

Apart the the pessimistic view above things are certainly looking better as we head into 2017, now we just need a bit of luck and help from the upstream pattern in allowing the block  to form in a favourable place for cold. #upbeataboutJanuary.

yes quite agree SC, it may help also if Brian keeps the polar bears off the home page 😂😂

Yes Jacko, you are right.  Tiny inflections of pulses of energy over the other side of the pond will have big ramifications as to where the high ends up days later.  Its always worth remembering Murphy's Law at times like this: "What can go wrong, will go wrong".

Just to add to the list of reasons for optimism ... I like the fact that the UKMO has that all-important Atlantic block forming as soon as 120 hrs. Yesterday morning's 144 hr chart didn't have it, and with any lack of enthusiasm from the UKMO charts traditionally spelling danger for a cold spell, I was concerned yesterday morning. But there we are, it's there now:

The first cold snap is almost nailed on.  The debate which will flow today is whether a more sustained cold spell can be achieved as we head into the new year.  I'm doubtful, but, you've got to hand it to the ECM for its proclivity to produce jars of home preserves.  Personally, the update from IF, whilst a useful insight, does nothing to bolster my personal confidence in the longer term outcome, which in my view remains very uncertain. 

Coldies need everything to go right, whether it will is unknown. 

I'm really pleased we are not staring down the barrel of 2 weeks of Bartlett or Zonal dross.  That is, of itself, a reason to be optimistic!

All extended ens drop euro heights to lower than normal which is now consistent over several days and the key to advecting sustained deep cold (as opposed to surface)

Currently looking to go decently cold but settled or unsettled cold?

And if it's the latter ,will it be first bite or second?

There must be a clustering within indicating a colder N'ly flow unless the London graph does a complete flip because a lot on the 12z were showing temps not much above freezing which for London isn't indicative of a mundane WNW flow

Comment on NW

IF's reply

The 00z EC ENS to d15 and clusters look anything but mundane to me. Markedly below average TMax against climatology (taking Reading as an example)

I know this in't exactly on topic but I post so infrequently here so hopefully you will forgive me. You can tell when a major outbreak of cold is upon us because you find yourself refreshing the GFS page every 5 minutes to get the next bit of the story. Anybody else do this, or is it just me. My obsession at the moment is to get pressure to drop over the alps so that snow falls soon. I am off there at half term and really don't want to ski on grass. Just because we have cold weather here doesn't necessarily mean we get it in SE France. 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim 

Note the cluster from the 5th delivering a few ice days - and not an insignificant group. I look for the De Bilt dp to spot a continental flow and it's there for sure.

The shocking outlier dipping to -20 is a lone warrior but interesting to see.

Pressure spread for an area SW of Iceland. Good agreement up to day 6. A bit dodgy looking thereafter.

I am with you there (although I am not going skiing until March. This is a good page to check: pressure in Geneva. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Genf_ens.png

and precipitation/upper air temps: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Genf_ens.png

I used to look at Dutch teletext forecasts in the old days of Astra channels when we had no internet to see their temps so I know what the out come in London will be, I remember seeing down as -4C max for Amsterdam in November 1993 and we got here -1C maxes and -8C at night while there was below -10C.  It help since Netherlands are not far away from here and often 3C difference between here and NL.

GFS 06z very frustrating for coldies, shows how things can pop up and spoil it. At least its cold but a uk high is still a danger if it fails to link properly

Not really , the trend is still there for a colder UK, that's for sure. The 6z only needs the slightest of tweaks and its a superb run

No doubt the Control will show something a tad different as will the 12z