The 12z MetO run is promising with interesting developments towards the Arctic at t+144.

GFS is generally cold with repeating northerly topplers. A very amplified Atlantic with heights building towards Scandy in the far reaches of FI. 

The 12z ECM is the one to keep an eye on tonight. Remember that all output tomorrow (and to an extent, Boxing Day) should be taken with a bigger pinch of salt due to less transatlantic data. A good time to take a break from the models! 

Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO. :-) 

Northerly for the first week in 2017

Hints of an Easterly at the death

A nice HP to the NE at the death

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

Frost and fog a common feature in the latest MetO thinking. With the best news of today shaping up in the form of a continued upgrade, although for 2nd week of Jan going forward:

'a greater likelihood of local frost and patchy fog by night. The exact orientation of the area of high pressure will dictate the direction of the winds and temperatures, but there is currently a higher chance of seeing a colder spell, as it looks as though the pressure could build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, which would bring cold northerly winds to the UK'

updated this afternoon @ 16.28

i expect ECM to throw out a belter run tonight, at least for Northern areas.

Of course you have no chance of seeing any snow that sticks

Be interesting to see how Boxing Day temps pan out......GFS has us chilly , the Beeb have gone for 14c , a HUGE difference

Never expect anything down south from a Northerly, no matter how potent.

Can anyone give a decent example of when this has happened?

This might be good

Have a great Christmas everyone.

I'm still baffled by the Beebs offering of 14c for Boxing Day

You too Jacko

Toppler from ECM

Get this to 48 and we are in business

From Toppler at 216 to Lazarus at 240.

Edit: Love the way that Azores low actually deepens slightly at 240.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016122412/ECM1-240.GIF?24-0 

Merry Christmas fellow weather fans.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

That's stunning best ecm chart of the winter so far. Pretty good output across the board tonight.  Merry Christmas everybody. 

The CFS V2 Operational builds makes it a North Westerly wind for New Years day into 2nd and 3rd before building HP to the north and then instead of sinking it builds and reforms a block over Scandinavia and a new HP builds around Greenland from the 14th Jan:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

It's all for fun this operational CFS V2 run but not to be taken as Gospel given how many cold Christmas set ups it came up with only to find out that nearer the time it turns out wrong or the exact opposite like tomorrow - but some very interesting runs and at least the GFS medium range outlook has support for cold weather early January 2017 - just how long will it last!?

Again the HP location would be crucial  - notice how the low pressure either go around (north) of the HP or to the south of us!? - I like the charts between 12th and 15th January - play those sequence the notice how the HP splits both Atlantic lows in the sequence with one going NORTH and the other South. Looks very interesting but a long way off sadly! 

Merry Christmas all.

Ps. Anyone seen Ian?

Fairly good output tonight. There now looks to be good agreement for at least a colder NW'ly for the new year. The amount of WAA and ridging around 29-31st December will dictate source and intensity.

It is appears that there may be a second bite of the cherry..a more jam tomorrow scenario that offers something potentially colder after the first ridge quickly topples.

A lot to play for. It sure beats staring at 300 hours of the zonal express !

Happy Christmas all 

So much for the numerous predictions there were from some quarters a week or two back which predicted that once the atlantic broke through this month, we'd be looking at at least 6 weeks or so of atlantic dominated weather or even something akin to last winter. I wonder what's happened to all that!

One thing I learned pretty quickly after I first began following the NWP on a regular basis back in early 2005 is that sometimes, the models can be just as unpredictable as the weather itself often is in this country. Early February 2005 was one memorable instance of a dramatic flip in the output from mild to cold in a short space of time. I think everyone would do well to bear this sort of thing in mind before anyone goes making assumptions about what happens over the coming x number of weeks.

I'll drink to that!

Busy night for him and a sleigh. 

Interesting signs into the New Year in the models, backed up to some extent by the firming up of the MetO outlooks. I'm sure the usual suspects will point to a lack of data on the Xmas period runs, but if memory serves Darren (Retron) did an analysis on this a few years back and apart from a slight dip in Aviation obs, there wasn't a big difference?

Anyway, hope all have a great day tomorrow & merry Xmas!