I totally second that - but following in more shoes that just Matty's. Bren's, Super Cell's, even yours for a while after the trolls targeted you, amongst many who've decided enough is enough.

The problem is that, in the spirit of even-handedness (and I appreciate some of the trolls/WUM's are canny in staying just the right side of the red line), the overall excellent Mod team are by consequence sacrificing quality, experienced, sensible posters.

He was a cold rambler who spoke and wrote in highly colourful language but was frequently wrong about events here.

Entertainment value 8/10

Usefulness 5/10

There may well be a cold blast to hit mainland Europe but whether it gets far enough west and whether it's as dramatic as he is fond of painting are other matters.

GFS 18z maintains the recent op them of flattening the flow and dumping high pressure back over us.  There's a window in terms of developments in North America shifting the jet but GFS still brings LP systems through.  It looks like it might be another of those occasions where one model has it wrong, but which.

He may well have done, but I'm pretty sure the MetO in November 2010 saw the start of the severe spell that commenced at the end of that month and lasted through December almost a fortnight before it commenced. That is going by my recollection of reading their 16-30 day updates during that period. And that was strongly backed up by the NWP we had at the time.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122318/gfsnh-1-216.png?18

Here it is brrrrrrrrrrr

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122318/gfsnh-1-324.png?18

Yep , I think you are correct , they spotted it quite early , whether it was hard to spot I wouldn't know as there weren't many variations from ......"its going to get very cold"  it certainly wasn't a will it wont it

He foresess cold spells every winter for this part of the world, and as the saying goes, a stopped clock etc..

I recall his forecast for NW Europe last year was for 'northern blocking' to take hold and bring us spells of severe cold.

18z control is a tad better further down the line brief though

Interestingly enough D Bett is on about a straight Northerly in the NY

ECM 12z ensembles for London

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

The scale goes down to -10C which I think may be the first time this winter; certainly the first for a while.  Definitely trending colder with the mean going with maxima of around 5C and overnight lows of 2C.  The main cluster goes with daytime highs of around 2-3C and overnight lows of -2 to -3C.  

I wonder what ths synoptics are like for the run that delivers an ice day followed by overnight -11C.....

A slight timing difference between GFS and ECM on the passage of the cold front early into the New Year:  GFS has it early on 1st, ECM later. After a little rain later on Xmas Day it looks bone dry for the rest of next week across both models and all ECM perturbations.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850birmingham0.png?cb

Not a bad set of ENS

Disappointing after some good runs showing he chance of a northerly  - there was meant to be a northerly between 1st and 3rd Jan and now look? - We have a westerly instead:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn23417.gif

Signs of HP building over Iceland and through Greenland  - toward second week of Jan:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2016122300/run/cfs-0-402.png?06

In a virtually modelled world there can never be a 'meant' Tally. It is a prediction not a fact or a promise!

A slight moderation in the outlook but over the years I've learnt to accept it's inevitable - most of the time. It's all connected with pockets of energy squeezing through the developing block and preventing its proper link. The resolution of this finer detail will improve as the time frame reduces. The control looks interesting late on lol 😉

The red meat of yesterday has been largely replaced with gruel today for the early part of January.  One crumb of comfort for me is that my LRF appears to be on track, with a mobile westerly and stormy period in the north expected.  Here is the 10m wind rose and speeds for The Lake District:  It appears to show pM and tM alternating in the new year. A notable settled spell as we sit under the  Euro High extends its influence N and W at the end of the calendar year. Now, can the ECM repeat its 2 day toppler of yesterday's 12z?

At 168 ECM appears to be trying its hardest to conjure something interesting around day 10 - will it succeed? Looks like another 2 -3 days cold snap courtesy of a toppler or can it reform Highs to the NW and sustain?

Edit- tries its best and ends up here in deep FI:

There will be some disappointment here this morning but it will be unjustified. What I published on Buzz yesterday is applicable:

In my experience the GFS model is very good at picking up these northerly outbreaks but it has a tendency to over amplify the upstream North Atlantic pattern. This leads it to show more potent and longer lasting cold spells than often transpire in our neck of the woods. Therefore, it's worth injecting a dose of caution into the discussion!

The GEFS ensemble model which is used to help determine the probability of different outcomes is worth a look. The postage stamp plot below shows the output from each each of the individual runs at the same time as the GFS chart above. The question is how many of the stamps show a cold outbreak as potent as the one the GFS06z operational run goes for? I would say only 2 out of the 20 but a number of others show a diluted version of it. This suggests the GFS06z operational run is at the more extreme end of possible outcomes and support for it is currently limited. However, the chance of somewhat colder weather is greater.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=3567&title=Risk+of+colder+weather+for+the+New+Year

At face value the GEFS suites are a back step. This is disappointing. There are still a number of cold options on the table and for now we should remain optimistic. A tweak of energy here and there can make all the difference.

That's a very good day 10 chart in my view looks to be a cheeky Scandi high developing there. It's clearer to see its development in the NH view.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

Gfs is pretty poor though , GEM a half way house.

Martin

I disagree. There is some potential but very limited as we once again see a potential northerly downgraded to the point of nothing as Neil explained with too much energy in the northern jet to prevent HLB. I'm sure if this was 30 years ago we would have had a proper cold blast.

I think we have to face reality that those of us in lowland in southern England may never see lying snow (that sticks) again for many years to come

I can't forecast more than five days let alone 'many years' Beast so your statement is a tad excessive. Yes GFS has a tendency to drop a signal that it first played with but it can easily pick it up again and these fluctuations are nothing new IMO. I think it's likely a colder spell is on its way - no one at this stage can say how severe it will be or how long it will last. But if course that's what we're discussing!