A bit too early to be writing off predictions I think at this stage. But it certainly looks like a very chilly first half of the month. Today and tomorrow are somewhat warmer so the CET will recover into the 11's. But then it will be very much on the way down again.
Currently I expect 10.50C by the 18th.
I am relying on something more unsettled and milder for the latter part of the month in order to get close to my prediction of 10.90C. I was tempted to go lower but held off. The GFS ENS were split at the start of the month. The Op and Control and a few ENS members going for mild. When the op and control are in alignment it pays not to ignore this. But the majority of ENS members were cool and that is the way things are panning out.