Ooooooopppppsssss....

Someone at the UK Met seem's to have let the CET domain expire!

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

How embarrassing. How embarrassing. 

I thought that as well but it may be that they changed their domain name from .com to .gov.uk as this one is working OK (but still hasn't been updated)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

I thought that as well but it may be that they changed their domain name from .com to .gov.uk as this one is working OK (but still hasn't been updated)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Ahhhhhhhh...

Good find!

Now updated to 16th;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

17.1 

Good to se an update from Hadley....

Met Office Hadley      17.1c.       Anomaly    1.2c.      Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                  17.43c.     Anomaly    0.97c.

Netweather               17.84c.     Anomaly    1.35c.

Clevedon Weather      18.0c.      Anomaly     1.3c.

Mount    Sorrel           17.7c.      Anomaly     1.2c.

My   Mean                  18.0c.      Anomaly     1.4c.  

WITHOUT HADLEY 

Average of the 5  mentioned below is    Just for fun   17.74c.   Anomaly of  1.23c.

Metcheck                  17.35c.      Anomaly   0.89c.

Netweather               17.86c.      Anomaly   1.37c.

Clevedon Weather     17.9c.        Anomaly   1.4c.

Mont   Sorrel             17.6c.       Anomaly    1.1c.

My     Mean               18.0c.       Anomaly    1.4c.

Edging down steadily here, 15C today, which is on the mean.
I suspect it could well end up another below average month with some cool weather next week.

The CET currently stands at 17.09C up to yesterday by my calculations. The current output suggests the final 10 days of the month could be very much on the chilly side. If this happens the CET could fall to 16.28C by the end of the month which would put us below average. If it had not been for the very warm start to the month we could have struggled to make 16C. Not as bad as 2011 or 2012 but much cooler than the last two July's.

This month provides a very good example of why it is extremely dangerous to base your CET prediction on the expected weather in the first few days of the month.

Thanks GW!

That's a pretty amazing CET crash, LOL!

If we'd have tapped into the hot air they've had over France in last few day's we'd have been on for a 17c+ finish I think...

I might use your charts on a Blog post on my website later, if that's OK?

The CET currently stands at 17.09C up to yesterday by my calculations. The current output suggests the final 10 days of the month could be very much on the chilly side. If this happens the CET could fall to 16.28C by the end of the month which would put us below average. If it had not been for the very warm start to the month we could have struggled to make 16C. Not as bad as 2011 or 2012 but much cooler than the last two July's.

This month provides a very good example of why it is extremely dangerous to base your CET prediction on the expected weather in the first few days of the month.

The French weather service were confident of the extreme heat continuing for most of July - hard to envisage a scenario where some of the heat did not regularly make it up into the CET region.

I've looked back at the French heatwaves for the last sixty eight years, every single one was reflected in the CET figures.

Thanks GW!

That's a pretty amazing CET crash, LOL!

If we'd have tapped into the hot air they've had over France in last few day's we'd have been on for a 17c+ finish I think...

I might use your charts on a Blog post on my website later, if that's OK?

sure no problem Gavin

Thank God I didn't go for anything higher. I had a gut feeling that it would not remain as warm as the first few days of the month. But no way could I envisage a crash like this.

I think this is the biggest CET crash I have ever known - by a very long way.

 

The French weather service were confident of the extreme heat continuing for most of July - hard to envisage a scenario where some of the heat did not regularly make it up into the CET region.

I've looked back at the French heatwaves for the last sixty eight years, every single one was reflected in the CET figures.

I have not known a situation in which we have been effectively robbed of what could have been an amazing summer - The heat in France and Spain has been incredible and the barrier separating us between it has acted like the former Berlin Wall in keeping it away from the UK.

 

sure no problem Gavin

Thanks GW!

To be fair, I went for 18*C based on signals in the middle part of June (as I was going away on holiday). The signals for a warm month had been there for several weeks prior to it getting underway.

I still have a wisp of hope that next week will feature a warmer day or two to reduce the damage, as the Atlantic trough takes a bit longer to arrive from the west than originally projected. ECM and UKMO have delivered good 12z op runs in that regard.

Amazingly, my local mean isn't all that much higher than the CET, standing at 17.68*C up to yesterday. The gap may open up more over the coming few days though, with conditions looking to be on the warm side in the far south.

I think this month stands as a great example as to why this competition is very nearly independent of forecasting skill, meaning anyone that has some idea how the first week or so may pan out (which can be gathered from various model output and media outlooks) has a fair chance of doing well. Even then, the advantage over those taking a total guess is reduced greatly by the unpredictability of the remaining 2/3 of the month.

The upshot is that there's very little discrimination being effected by the rules, allowing for large numbers of people to take part without worrying about feeling like underdogs  

It also makes clear that it's a bad idea to take this game seriously. I made that mistake a few years ago and life was... tarnished 

^^^^^

SC - Indeed! 

Here's the result's of GW's efforts:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

Think the Blog is pretty good with GW's lovely charts as well!

^^^^^

SC - Indeed! 

Here's the result's of GW's efforts:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

Think the Blog is pretty good with GW's lovely charts as well!

Nice one Gavin. Those 850 temperatures look very poor indeed, even for London, with consistently below average numbers for an extended period.

To be fair, I went for 18*C based on signals in the middle part of June (as I was going away on holiday). The signals for a warm month had been there for several weeks prior to it getting underway.

I still have a wisp of hope that next week will feature a warmer day or two to reduce the damage, as the Atlantic trough takes a bit longer to arrive from the west than originally projected. ECM and UKMO have delivered good 12z op runs in that regard.

 

Amazingly, my local mean isn't all that much higher than the CET, standing at 17.68*C up to yesterday. The gap may open up more over the coming few days though, with conditions looking to be on the warm side in the far south.

 

I think this month stands as a great example as to why this competition is very nearly independent of forecasting skill, meaning anyone that has some idea how the first week or so may pan out (which can be gathered from various model output and media outlooks) has a fair chance of doing well. Even then, the advantage over those taking a total guess is reduced greatly by the unpredictability of the remaining 2/3 of the month.

The upshot is that there's very little discrimination being effected by the rules, allowing for large numbers of people to take part without worrying about feeling like underdogs  

 

It also makes clear that it's a bad idea to take this game seriously. I made that mistake a few years ago and life was... tarnished 

This is my 2nd year in the competition having followed it for a few years. It's made me realise more than ever that no matter how advanced the computer models get, forecasting the weather in the UK more than 5 days ahead with any degree of accuracy is a guess.

Wouldn't be a competition otherwise

I'm surprised it's so low, tbh.

We've had a succession of mild nights this month, where the temp's remained above 14c (many above 16c) and, although daytime temps haven't been scorchio, we seem to have comfortably topped 20c almost every day this July.

Given the general set-up, I'd have thought the more southern-based CET stations would be another degree on top of mine. I was in Cambridge Sat/Sun and it was glorious weather - Saturday (playing golf) was up around 23/24c and sunny.

MET OFFICE HADLEY      17.0C.      Anomaly    1.1c    Provisional  to   19th.

Metcheck                       17.25c.    Anomaly     0.79c.

Netweather                    17.73c.   Anomaly     1.24c.

Clevedon  Weather          17.8c.     Anomaly     1.5c.

Mount   Sorrel                 17.4c.     Anomaly     0.9c.

My    Mean                      17.9c      Anomaly     1.5c.

The CET currently stands at 17.09C up to yesterday by my calculations. The current output suggests the final 10 days of the month could be very much on the chilly side. If this happens the CET could fall to 16.28C by the end of the month which would put us below average. If it had not been for the very warm start to the month we could have struggled to make 16C. Not as bad as 2011 or 2012 but much cooler than the last two July's.

This month provides a very good example of why it is extremely dangerous to base your CET prediction on the expected weather in the first few days of the month.

Or indeed from the middle of the month to its end?

It's steamy here this morning, but Scotland sees record amounts of last winter's snow left for the time of year.