We are just entering what could be an extended period of cold weather having only recently emerged from the coldest spell of weather in the CET area for 2 years. Will the cold weather persist throughout February or will it only be the first week that sees cold weather?

Please post your February CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Saturday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 February.

February historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

We have had a real mixed bag of temperatures in February over recent years. Some years such as 2011 and 2014 saw a CET in excess of 6C. Others such as 2010, 2012 and 2013 were below 4C with 2010 only seeing 2.8C. 2007 and 2008 were both in the 5's.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 4.2C
1981-2010: 4.4C
1995-2014: 5.0C

Here is a chart of the February CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
850 are cold to start the month but return to average towards the latter part of the run. T2m figures show a similar pattern climbing after the first week of the month

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
De Bilt ECM data looks similar to GFS returning towards average after the first week of Feb. 

Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
In line with current output above suggesting a return to close to average conditions with a stronger jet in the second week.

Met office
Latest contingency planners forecast for the next three months not yet available

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Same analysis as for other forecasts above. Cold first week then a return to close to average conditions

Pattern matching (just for fun)

Not much to say this month. There are very few years in recent times where both December and January CET figures have been close to average. 1966/67 is probably the closest match. February 1967 saw a CET of 5.3C.

1983/4 is also a reasonably good match. February 1984 saw a CET of just 3.3C with March also cold.

The other possible match is 2002/3 which saw a February CET of 3.9C

So no pattern to discern at all really. That said this winter does seem to be shaping up in a similar vein to 1983/4 so that is where my money would be at the moment. A CET around 3C perhaps in February.

Here is the latest CET prediction for the start of Feb. A figure of 2C by the 8th rising to 3C by the 11th. However, that is very far out into FI and it may not warm up to anything like that extent if the cold weather sticks around.

4.1 please...  :)

Going to stick with my winter forecast, which suggested February may have our best chance of a colder than average month this winter. 

Let's say 2.9

Going Down for    4.5c.... Please...

2.7 C for me, please

3.93c thanks.

1.9C please

I'll go for 4.2C please

edited I originally went for 2.0C but I'm now thinking this early Feb cold spell is not as deep as forecast earlier nor going on for as long. The last half of Feb is looking milder too

Feb is a tricky one.Looks like first 7-10 days will be below average.However beyond that the Atlantic may return with near  normal temperature as Meto suggests.However there  is still a chance of HP developing towards mid month.If that settles over Scandinavia then a mean feb temp of 2-3 c is possible.

On balance i,ll go for slightly below average.4.2 C please

Hmmm.

I really want to go cold but that's banking on our current cold spell wandering in to some kind of Easterly. Which really is a bit of a gamble.

I'll go with 3.4c I think

3.35c cheers

Hmm, tough one this month, I'll take a punt on 3.85C.

3.72C please

On the basis of what appears to be showing up at the moment.

I'll go for  3.5C

4.8c - though I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up even warmer