I'll go for 4.0C please.

3.9 for me please.

3.8C please

I reckoned 5 weeks ago that Feb would be cold.

Not changed my hunch...

So I'll go 2.1C

Think I've gone too warm though...

Really tough one this month but I'm going for 2.5 and hope the high pressure settles North or East.

3.4c please 

3.5°c please.

3.9c

Again, I'm going for the mid-point between two conflicting thoughts: A repeating pattern of cooler blasts from the NW/N, with perhaps a touch of blocking to the NE/E teasing us. Or a quick breakdown toward a more mobile Atlantic and milder temps.

Then again, recent output suggests the first quarter/third could well be blocked to our south, with the southern half of Britain (most/all of the CET area) under higher pressure. Milder days, frosty nights?

Decisions, decisions.

I'm thinking the same way as several others. Looks chilly but really cold would be a big reversal, otoh, the models might well be over egging the return of mildness.

So, 3.8C please.

5.2c for me please as this cold spell will suppress those daytime maxima's.

3.5'c Ta

First time of doing this...even though I've been on TWO for a few years now.  I decided I would finally do something daring in my 40th year and enter the CET competition!!

Can I have a 2.8 please?  There could be a run of frosty nights in February, even if daytime maxima are not that cold.

David

Northallerton

A risky 2.7C for me.

3.9c

Again, I'm going for the mid-point between two conflicting thoughts: A repeating pattern of cooler blasts from the NW/N, with perhaps a touch of blocking to the NE/E teasing us. Or a quick breakdown toward a more mobile Atlantic and milder temps.

Then again, recent output suggests the first quarter/third could well be blocked to our south, with the southern half of Britain (most/all of the CET area) under higher pressure. Milder days, frosty nights?

Decisions, decisions.

Decisions, indeed - the analogues have some legendary months appearing in them.

http://i.imgur.com/3Pahgk4.gif

I could see that split in the ensembles from last night but the colder options are fewer this morning - why are those enigmas always showing at month end?

It's a fence sitting 4C from me.

Edit - please see revised figure on next page.

A very cold first week of February looks likely now. A cold start to February is quite common if we look back into the archives. Here are the coldest first seven days of Feb since 1900 in the CET series

1917  -3.23C
1954  -2.83C
1963  -2.06C
1912  -1.46C
1956  -1.01C
1991  -1.01C
1947  -0.86C
1907  -0.56C
2012  -0.53C
1996  -0.40C
2009  0.14C
2015  0.21C Est.
1900  0.30C
1942  0.54C

Worth noting that the coldest six day period in the 1971-2000 CET series is 13 to 18 Feb at 3.46C. So although the solar energy starts to increase significantly during February the air temperatures are at their lowest in mid Feb. So plenty of time for further cold weather in the coming month.

3.5c please

Mmmm 3.9C for me please.