Very true. 

I still think many amatuers are gunning for a mild winter simply on the basis we are 'due' one.. having the last few winters on the colder side (or at least seeing very cold & snowy spells).

It will be interesting to see how many of these mild/ very mild forecasts verify and which ones are drastically reviewed if necessary.  

Without northern blocking, it's very difficult to get other building blocks in place for a cold winter, and I think that anybody who attempts an LRF (or LRG) or whatever you want to call it, should at least be treated with a little respect.

Clearly Martin is one of the good guys on TWO and I think it's fairly clear that he has put a lot of work into his forecast. Whether it proves to be accurate or not is anybody's guess, and as many people say, there's a lot of guess work involved, but don't poo-poo the idea just because you don't agree with it.

I agree with Martin that the pattern this year (so far) just does not lend itself to a colder than average winter.

Should northern blocking become prevalent later in the winter, then maybe we will get something, but I can't see this happening in the first month of winter at least.

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

Ive been reading this thread and it seems to be a hard call as what sort of winter we are likely to get,wether its a mild one as some suggest or a cold one as is also suggested. If you read online at some of the forecasts it seems they are pointing to really cold and snow,i guess we will have to wait and see what develops. Still an interesting read though and i think i believe this site as oposed to others.

I personally would love a cold winter with snow,proper snow but will that happen,time will tell,keep up the wofk chaps.

My sentiments exactly.

Leave the long rangers to the big guys (MetO). No offence intended to anyone but anything else is just for fun.

And the big guys take on the coming Winter is ????????

There is a 96% probability that Winter will fall between Dec 1st and Feb 28th


(the other 4% is on account I'm not certain if it's a leap year or not )

Probably incorrect 

....on a serious note, they have gone with a higher probability of colder than average. 

High presure needs to be over greenland and scandi for real cold a set up like last march in january would be perfect

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112512/run3/cfsnh-2-1074.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

Early in January CFS has us frozen out

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112512/cfs-8-1-2014.png?12

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

JFF JFF JFF

😂 😂 😂

Just checking

I think this forecast could turn out reasonably well. The probability of the AO averaging positive this winter is high [see my post #578], and the QBO may start to change sign around February.

Scott

Penicuik. 188m ASL

In addition to our esteemed leader Brian Gaze, Gav from gavs weather vids, and the metoffice. The other winter forecast that I would strongly recommend is from the other place . Being serious, though, I thought I would post the link here because the technical forecast is extremely detailed and the quality looks excellent. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-in-depth;sess=

They suggest a slightly colder/drier than average winter, with some blocking but 'not a repeat of 1947'!

The guys here do a great job.

Really Matty? Do you not put any faith in LRFs? You would never have guessed! 

When I first visited TWO in the early noughties, the only thing I really read was the long range forecasts . I don't agree that they have no credibility; they just arn't going to be as accurate as short term ones. 

Well you're wrong I'm afraid.

As I've said before - show me the link to the agency that produces regularly accurate seasonal forecasts and I'll hold my hands up. There isn't one. Even the professionals will tell you seasonal forecasting is currently impossible.

I would go as far as to say they are a complete load of bull and a waste of time if it weren't that nothing has ever been achieved by giving up. Of course it has to be continued to be explored, but to suggest there any one out there is better than another, let alone from an amateur site, is total and utter nonsense, and misleading nonsense at that. I have a real bugbear about this. It annoys the hell out of me when people confidently claim something that is totally wrong.