errrmmmmmm not too late for a refund?  

Normally when I leave the country, it signals weeks on end of snow in the UK, but can't see this happening on this occasion.

It will be as you land back in the UK this time Kieren

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112306/cfs-8-12-2013.png?06

As we are fast approaching December you would like to think the above will fairly accurate ???????

Here it is then, the third and final seasonal model round-up video for winter 13-14;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

And the consensus amongst the 9 models used for this video is...

Cheers Gav , very mixed opinion it would seem

Over the past two weeks CFS has been persistent in predicting a lot of high pressure over and near to the UK in December, so the cold anomalies could be similar in origin to those that we're seeing right now.

In December that can mean notable frosts and days struggling to get that far above freezing... or persistent Atlantic muck with temperatures stuck at 1-4°C (if the above T2m anomalies were to manifiest), but thankfully the +ve 500mb anomaly near to the UK has trended to higher latitudes lately, although we could in theory see dreary easterlies from that... it's never easy going is it? 

Now, how about those Met Office ensemble mean maps eh Gav?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20131101/2cat_20131101_temp2m_months24_global_deter_public.png

That 2m anomaly map suggests mid-latitude blocking to me, with stagnated cold the theme of the winter.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20131101/2cat_20131101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.png

...and there it is! A very strong signal considering it's covering a 3 month period.

You know, it would only take the ensembles overcooking the polar troughing and we'd be looking at some notable potential for Arctic incursions.

It is a huge shift from the October update though (anomalous Azores high and troughing to our NW... a westerly winter), so that reduces confidence substantially. At least it's a shift a long way in the right direction, and arguably right towards what CFS has been predicting for a month or so.

When you flick ahead to see the 3-5 and 4-6 month predictions, there is a very strong signal for one of the driest winters on record... though the precipitation anomaly maps show only a slight defecit so perhaps some disturbances could find their way to the UK, though they'd have a hard time doing so without being forced south and engaging with cold air... okay now I'm getting carried away 

Good stuff SC , met showing a colder thn average winter , it is a turnaround

http://www.weather.com/news/history-repeating-itself-november-1963-2013-thanksgiving-20131120?hootPostID=a3a68f098203706bd027f5c9f6884555 

The UKMO maps seem to point to what he was describing as the predominant pattern in winter 63/64.

Potentially marginally below in southern parts and marginally above in northern parts. However the probability forecast suggests no real overall trend for most (see below). All in all pretty average stuff. Having said that it is a not an actual forecast more a number crunching exercise so should be viewed in that light.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20131101/2cat_20131101_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public.png 

below is still good enough for me Michael

Thanks Moomin for your forecast the other day.... an interesting read, and my instincts are that it's prediction of a milder winter will be close to the mark.   This isn't based on any particular deep metrological analysis, or even that 'we're due one', but simply that over 2013 there seems to have been a change in terms of high latitude blocking being the default position..... We'll see.

Andrew