Me too.

Not really bothered about whether or not we get much by way of cold in November; it is technically an autumn month rather than a winter one. It's December onwards that really counts as far as I'm concerned.

I would also and more ...................we are never that lucky

I thought that was a better winter overall in terms of cold and snow than 2010-11. Not far off uploading the forecasts from that period of 2009-10.

Lets hope that once we hit December  the models aren't still showing raging zonality. These patterns tend to come in clumps of a few months over the last five years, so it maybe that we have to wait until the latter end of December into January before we finally see a pattern change. 

I had to look that up - two days with snow falling with a dusting hanging around for 3 days. January 2010, on the other hand - that was far more interesting down here (10 days of snow falling).

Already by this time last year we'd had our first frost and had already seen some sleet. No sign of any frosts any time soon down here which makes me think of the old adage: "If November ice shall bear a duck, there'll be nothing after but slush and muck". It's not reliable of course, but one can always hope!

You are wrong.

This is a weather forum and we should all be using correct terms (this is the model output thread after all, not the "hey, here's how it feels to me" thread). In the context of this discussion (about the first week of June) 21C is not "warm", it's average - if you call average "warm", then you end up with the silly stuff that you get on the Beeb in winter (when 8C is described as "bitterly cold").

There's no excuse for not using the correct terminology

copyright Retron 26th May 2013

And no, I won't ever let you forget it. Ever. 😂

I'd be more than happy with a re-run of Dec 2009

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I would also and more ...................we are never that lucky

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I had to look that up - two days with snow falling with a dusting hanging around for 3 days. January 2010, on the other hand - that was far more interesting down here (10 days of snow falling).

Already by this time last year we'd had our first frost and had already seen some sleet. No sign of any frosts any time soon down here which makes me think of the old adage: "If November ice shall bear a duck, there'll be nothing after but slush and muck". It's not reliable of course, but one can always hope!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

You are wrong.

This is a weather forum and we should all be using correct terms (this is the model output thread after all, not the "hey, here's how it feels to me" thread). In the context of this discussion (about the first week of June) 21C is not "warm", it's average - if you call average "warm", then you end up with the silly stuff that you get on the Beeb in winter (when 8C is described as "bitterly cold").

There's no excuse for not using the correct terminology

copyright Retron 26th May 2013


And no, I won't ever let you forget it. Ever.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Ouch!

Albeit in the wrong thread, (over in the model thread), Accuweather are predicting a remarkably mild and snow-free winter across MUCH of Europe.

I don't think I've ever seen such a forthright LRF than that and there clearly must be very strong signals towards a mild winter now.

I really do think (and I will no doubt be shot down in flames), that the signals are there for a mild winter, everything just "feels" different this year to the last few.

I for one will not be surprised if I don't see a single snow flake this winter, with relatively few frosts.

Signals count for **** all at this range.

I hate to say it , But Matthew is right ( cold bias ) from me of course. We are still 8 weeks from January virtually impossible to say what will happen after Xmas, yes I concede November looks to have a lack of a wintry flavour but hey that is still Autumn

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110106/cfs-8-1-2014.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Just for Moomin

I won't forget it either - the forum was wetting itself over nothing whatsoever, it was really quite bizzare! God only knows why that hype built the way it did as it was clear to see that only average conditions were forecast throughout June. And, of course, that was proven to be the case. July was a different matter, but I'd already got fed up of people (and a couple in particular) ramping into ifinity by then.

PS - no copyright on that post of mine, it's public domain!

As for Accuweather, their guess is as good as any I suppose. It's all just guesswork at this stage anyway, as nature has a way of foiling even the most general forecasts!

The only decent long-range forecast cold spell I've seen was the MetO's output during November 2010 when they were plugging for a cold end to the month from around 4 weeks out. That was impressive and was due to ECM32 giving an overwhelming signal. It's a shame ECM32 is no longer available to us, although even when it was more often than not the signals were rather vague in the 16-32 day range (November 2010 was very much the exception).

It wasnt long ago that some LRFs were going for a very cold winter. The fact is no LRF can be relied on whether cold or mild. No LRF picked up the cold spring we had or the good summer so still all to play for.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfsnh-0-1140.png?18

This is a classic CFS-type cold spell chart; there is higher pressure in the Arctic and some high-lat blocking, but at the same time the PV energy remains vigorous and continues to fight against the high pressure.

Before too long, the inevitable crazy chart materialises, albiet not for the UK directly:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfsnh-0-1350.png?18

One of the most extreme Siberian storms in recorded history!

The frequency of December cold spells in the CFS runs seems to have been on the rise over the past fortnight. I'm not the best judge of that though; not had much time to view the individual runs lately.

The above CFS run produces a largely westerly winter from late December onwards, often very stormy. The PV is heavily displaced at times, but remains too powerful, driving vicious storms at the UK and overcoming the high-latitude blocking that tries to develop to our NE. Factor in the CFS tendency to overdo the PV energy and things could turn out very differently!

I have SC and yes they have increased slightly after having a run of being non exisitent

I agree - we got two good wintry periods, in the 2nd half of December, and again for much of the January. Best winter IMBY for years overall.

It got progressively colder up here - IIRC, from a NW'ly feed generated from Greenland blocking. We were forecast sleet or snow on the weekend of [I think] the 12th, but just got rain. Disappointment.

The following weekend, however, we got snow on the Sunday (well, a mix of soft hail & snow), which left about 2cm cover, before more snow moved in, boosting depths to around 7cm. Temps fell further and we had snow lying until the 27th. Bliss.

As I've said before, I'll forgive a winter any amount of zonal crap in Jan/Feb as long as it delivers snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas.

December 2009 was brilliant in Manchester. Best snow since 1996...!

And then Jan 2010 - best snow since 1981.

What a winter 🙂

This picture from Man City's ground sums up Winter 2009-2010 for most of the UK I would imagine

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01555/man_city_1555741i.jpg

That was some day, that January 5th 2010. There were some shocked faces when they woke up!

I wonder if a certain Ian Brown wrote Accuweather's forecast.

EDIT: I think it very probably has been written by Ian Brown. Fits in nicely with many of his past winter forecasts.

Took me an hour to get half way to work before getting the call that they were shutting the office for the day. Had to inch my way along the chocker M62 to the Eccles Interchange before heading back. Snowdaytastic.

recall this day well, first day back afte xmas break and our boss called a team meeting dragging people in from far and wide -  by 2pm was clear we needed to start to make tracks, the routes out of Birmingham were not fun....

let the roller coaster begin, will we see THAT ECM run again mid December only for it to be cancelled.

Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...