The page i linked to has either been updated or i misread it.  I am sure it has been updated.  It now reads as below. (It is the underlined bit i think has changed)  Who the hell is UK Weather Forecast???

Forecasters give shovels warning

FORECASTERS have warned Scots to have their shovels at the ready this winter.

UK Weather Forecast has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Anyone seen maddens forecast...

LOL. The most fantastic ever snow forecast for the UK written by the least credible person on the internet. second only to Melanie.

My parents had a man from British Gas come to check their gas heating today, and they were told by him that the winter is expected to be very cold... so I guess the people at the top have been warned.... 

That is beacuse he lives next door to YD

Sure, but to imply the Met Office are in some way "determined to restrict the contents... to a select few" when it's clearly there to be found on the internet is misleading, incorrect and unfair. It would be foolish to over promote something which they make clear is pretty speculative, but it's there, not hidden, for all to find and it seems a shame to imply it is anything otherwise.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2046.png?12

J F F  J F F   J F F  

Nice Easterly for the start of the year

Hi all,

Here's the third winter 13/14 round-up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Again looking at solar, SST's, snow cover and so on.

Enjoy it.

Tentative signs favouring a more zonal-type winter then? That is pretty ironic a day after the Express said we are all about to freeze for months on end.

 Actualy I'd say it's about 50/50 between favouring cold or mild this winter.

It's a very, very hard winter to call this one.

I broadly accept that Matty, but if we were to consider:

- cluster of colder winters recently;

- meanderings of the jet stream all year and lots of blocking; and

- relatively low sunspot activity

then it may be contested that a colder than average is favoured.  Doesn't mean it will happen, but it may tip the balance a tad...

Which means brollies and wellies ....................great

good lord - have i stumbled onto one of netweather's dross threads about cold ??  perspective fellas !!!   its too early to have any kind of decent punt. give it till the end of october at least and then we can have a look at more of the influences - especially strat conditions.

good video gav.

Thanks.

I think even at November it's going to be a very hard call this year.

Isn't there a finite chance that it could be just average?

Yes.

So lets say it's 40% cold 40% mild and 10% average! Better?

Is the other 10% split at the extreme end?

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Just sat and watched this , anyone's guess really isn't it, liked the chat on QBO, clearly shows a Westerly QBO can be a cold winter and an Easterly can be a mild one. Not sure ( as you say) that is a good method to  forecast by .

Cheers Gav

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2034.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

A nice Easterly at the start the New Year

Yes.

I don't accept that. If you flick a coin and it lands on heads 5 times in a row, the statistical probability of the next flip being either heads or tails remains exactly the same as it was on the very first flip. There's no evidence whatsoever to suggest a few colder winters in a row means this winter is likely to be one as well. Think of the last few cold winters as being the coin that fell heads several times in succession. Such a minuscule sample doesn't affect the average probability.

All options of course remain on the table, but at this stage the probability of one type of winter or another has to be exactly the same as it is every single year.

in other words 50/50 , we wont have a clue until we are in spring .

Luck of the draw I say.................depending on which side of the fence you sit on

I think you will find there might be a fee for that

It's just basic maths and probability. Until forecasting advances enough - if it ever does - that we can link current patterns definitively to future patterns, then you can only use basic probability linked to the average. As it stands we only have very contentious links like the warm, dry October etc.