The Weather Outlook

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Gooner
01 October 2013 17:09:39

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2430.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

A welcome set up for early Januaary


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



nsrobins
02 October 2013 09:44:20

Simon Ks take on December (courtesy WX online)

*December*
There is much discrepancy between forecast models at this time.
However, we currently lean into the idea of December being unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds at times.
There is evidence merging of the westerly flow across the Atlantic being stronger than normal, leading to an enhanced jet stream.
This would lead to more precipitation than usual, perhaps 150 to 180% of normal rainfall.
Temperatures would likely be around normal, and there is the risk of some snow at times, especially through Ireland and Scotland, as well as northern England

If it's cold and snowy weather you're after, this is great news


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

nsrobins
02 October 2013 13:41:39

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
02 October 2013 14:10:09

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

CFS hasn't shown much in the way of prolonged cold for a while, infact somewhat disappointing JFF of course


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin P
02 October 2013 16:00:04

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

What about Gavin P style?


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Charmhills
02 October 2013 16:06:27

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

What about Gavin P style?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Fronts coming in from the SW, snow showers piling in from the east etc.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Matty H
02 October 2013 16:18:02

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positivetemperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?

I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.

This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses ofthe coolingsceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style:'Bollox to thecold and the snow can f*** right off'

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

😂

Only the cold. I'll take the snow if you could somehow make that possible 🤣


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Gandalf The White
02 October 2013 17:10:01

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positivetemperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?

I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.

This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses ofthe coolingsceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style:'Bollox to thecold and the snow can f*** right off'

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Brilliant!

Minor nitpick but I was able to understand the Joe B forecast so it's clearly not in the right style.... 😉


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Scandy 1050 MB
03 October 2013 08:56:23

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

CFS hasn't shown much in the way of prolonged cold for a while, infact somewhat disappointing JFF of course

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

CFS not bad this morning - showing below average for JAN - APR , will change on the next run so JFF

White Meadows
03 October 2013 20:55:45
What's happened to this thread? The last 2 pages have been purely banter...,
Gooner
03 October 2013 21:42:37

What's happened to this thread? The last 2 pages have been purely banter...,

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Really??

Links as well as forcasts have been posted


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Stormchaser
04 October 2013 02:02:33

Even at 3 in the morning (don't ask) I can see that the opinionated posts aren't what this thread needs any more of; please stick to prospects and forecasts for the most part, thanks


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gooner
04 October 2013 10:54:23

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1134.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

A northerly outbreak in November

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1590.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Followed by one early in December

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



04 October 2013 12:08:53

I can understand that some people don't like cold weather for various reasons but I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter. They are so unbelievably boring! At least in summer with mild weather you can get scorching heat and thunderstorms but in winter its just boring nothingness.

Gooner
04 October 2013 13:46:02

I can understand that some people don't like cold weather for various reasons but I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter. They are so unbelievably boring! At least in summer with mild weather you can get scorching heat and thunderstorms but in winter its just boring nothingness.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Agreed


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Charmhills
04 October 2013 15:56:55

I can understand that some people don't like cold weather for various reasons but I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter. They are so unbelievably boring! At least in summer with mild weather you can get scorching heat and thunderstorms but in winter its just boring nothingness.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Indeed, boring and everybody up in arms!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

John S2
04 October 2013 16:52:09

I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Then allow me to explain why personally I would like a repeat of 91/92. I am actively involved in the organisation of more than one social activity which require a reasonable number of people to travel to a venue. Snow, particularly if combined with ice, either results in cancellation or only a tiny number of people turning up. Sharp frosts, such as occurred in January 1992, are not a problem in isolation. The 'extended' winter of 2012/13 [ie including March 2013] was the most disruptive I have known since at least winter 78/79.

Gooner
04 October 2013 18:29:59

I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Then allow me to explain why personally I would like a repeat of 91/92. I am actively involved in the organisation of more than one social activity which require a reasonable number of people to travel to a venue. Snow, particularly if combined with ice, either results in cancellation or only a tiny number of people turning up. Sharp frosts, such as occurred in January 1992, are not a problem in isolation. The 'extended' winter of 2012/13 [ie including March 2013] was the most disruptive I have known since at least winter 78/79.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

That is a fair shout John, my Mother can't stand the Ice and Snow,she lives in a Village 5 miles out of town , but she accepts she won't be able to get out and stocks up accordingly.

She also arranges her social life around the weather if Ice and snow are forecast ,which is understandable


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



glenogle
04 October 2013 18:39:20

I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Then allow me to explain why personally I would like a repeat of 91/92. I am actively involved in the organisation of more than one social activity which require a reasonable number of people to travel to a venue. Snow, particularly if combined with ice, either results in cancellation or only a tiny number of people turning up. Sharp frosts, such as occurred in January 1992, are not a problem in isolation. The 'extended' winter of 2012/13 [ie including March 2013] was the most disruptive I have known since at least winter 78/79.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

That is a fair shout John, my Mother can't stand the Ice and Snow,she lives in a Village 5 miles out of town , but she accepts she won't be able to get out and stocks up accordingly.

She also arranges her social life around the weather if Ice and snow are forecast ,which is understandable

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Does she drop the bingo and opt for sledging and ice skating when conditions permit 

 

I'm sure at some point we are going to pay for all this dry weather and hope it combines with cold and high winds to bring a proper winter storm.  Late Nov/Early Dec would be acceptable enough for me.  Until then it can stay mediocre for all i care.  Do worry that we are going to have a mild s/sw flow most of the winter though.  One of those cases of high in the wrong place 


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Gooner
04 October 2013 19:11:35

I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter.

Originally Posted by: glenogle 

Then allow me to explain why personally I would like a repeat of 91/92. I am actively involved in the organisation of more than one social activity which require a reasonable number of people to travel to a venue. Snow, particularly if combined with ice, either results in cancellation or only a tiny number of people turning up. Sharp frosts, such as occurred in January 1992, are not a problem in isolation. The 'extended' winter of 2012/13 [ie including March 2013] was the most disruptive I have known since at least winter 78/79.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

That is a fair shout John, my Mother can't stand the Ice and Snow,she lives in a Village 5 miles out of town , but she accepts she won't be able to get out and stocks up accordingly.

She also arranges her social life around the weather if Ice and snow are forecast ,which is understandable

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Does she drop the bingo and opt for sledging and ice skating when conditions permit 

 

I'm sure at some point we are going to pay for all this dry weather and hope it combines with cold and high winds to bring a proper winter storm.  Late Nov/Early Dec would be acceptable enough for me.  Until then it can stay mediocre for all i care.  Do worry that we are going to have a mild s/sw flow most of the winter though.  One of those cases of high in the wrong place 

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

 

I'm sure we will get some decent spells through the 3 month period.

My biggest regret was not making the most of the 2010 spell , something akin would be great


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Snowfan
04 October 2013 19:52:08

Sometimes in recent years we tend to skip some seasons altogether - perhaps we will skip a proper Autumn and go straight from summer weather into winter.............? 

I would prefer an actual decline though with time to enjoy the chilly air and leaves blowing before the snow comes..... 


"Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! "

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Gooner
04 October 2013 19:55:18

Sometimes in recent years we tend to skip some seasons altogether - perhaps we will skip a proper Autumn and go straight from summer weather into winter.............? 

I would prefer an actual decline though with time to enjoy the chilly air and leaves blowing before the snow comes..... 

Originally Posted by: Snowfan 

2010 was such a year ,we hardly had an Autumn and flew straight into Winter IIRC

A repeat please


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



caldog
05 October 2013 11:40:10

Any update yet on the state of Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow cover?

Not that that necessarily affects our weather, it is still interesting.

glenogle
05 October 2013 13:51:25

It is still increasing for now apparently.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Stormchaser
05 October 2013 19:33:08

I have been getting very suspcicious that 2013 will try to pull a summer/winter transition without much of an autumn. It might involve a false start or two, though.

I can't wait to experience my first snow event in Reading, as I've read countless times about snow depths here more than three times what I've had to make do with back in west Hants!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

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